Greek Public Finances improve substantially in 2010: can we believe it?

Yesterday drifted along for much of it with no great news and no great direction to financial markets but tucked away in the report from the June Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (America’s Central Bank) was this phrase.

“Members noted that in addition to continuing to develop and test instruments to exit from the period of unusually accommodative monetary policy, the committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably”.

That sentence is quite significant. There is an element of ill-logic in it as how can you be planning an exit from stimulus measures at the same time as you are considering new ones? However I believe that what they are saying is that they are concerned that the US economy is slowing and that they may have to try to stimulate it again. As the Meeting took place on June 22/23rd and the economic data since then has generally been weak those who felt this in the Federal Reserve will be more concerned now than they were then.For example not only did June’s retail sales drop 0.5% but previous months were revised down. If we stop for a moment and think of the implications of this should it take place then one cannot avoid the thought that it is looking increasingly possible that the enormous stimulus programmes that were poured into the US economy may not be working. In an irony of timing the White House released a report saying that President Obama’s stimulus programme or Recovery Act has saved or created between 2.5 and 3.6 million jobs and raised growth by 3% in return for the 787 billion dollars spent. Perhaps it was not the best day to try to slap yourself on the back.

Regular readers will know that I follow bond yields and consider the current yield of ten-year US government bonds to be rather extraordinary at 3.05%. For those who want to know more about this please look at my article of the 2nd of July on US inflation and look at the yield again. However if we should get monetary stimulus phase 2 will yields be forced lower again or are they already discounting this? I worry that we are trying to fix a bubble by creating another bubble.

Greek Public Finances in 2010

The Greek Ministry of Finance recently published figures for Greek public finances from January to May 2010 and they show a remarkable improvement. Particularly remarkable when you consider that the two phases of her austerity programme were only announced in March and May 2010 respectively and that is announced not implemented. For example it was 2 /3 weeks ago that the second increase in VAT levels actually began i.e outside the period for the new figures.

What do they say?

the state budget for the first five months of 2010 (January – May), on a fiscal basis, the deficit amounted to 8,978 million euro against 14,655 million euro during the same period in 2009. This represents a 38.7% year-over-year decline, against a targeted 35.1% annual decline foreseen in the Stability and Growth Program (SGP)………..Furthermore, these data do not yet fully reflect the additional measures introduced in March and May, 2010.

Breaking these numbers down

net revenues of the ordinary budget increased by 8.3% year-over-year against a targeted 11.7% annual increase foreseen in the SGP, including the additional measures of March……….Ordinary budget expenditures declined by 10.5% year-over-year against a targeted 4.8% annual decrease foreseen in the SGP. In particular, primary expenditures declined by 11.3% against a targeted 4.4% annual reduction and interest expenditures decreased by 7.5% against a targeted 5.1% annual increase

So on the face of it we have quite a remarkable improvement. If you project these numbers forward for the whole year then after last years deficit of some 13.6% of GDP we would get a reduction to 8.3% or a drop of 5.3% which would be quite an improvement. Looked at in such a way it could make you wonder if the second stage of the austerity programme implemented in May was necessary. Indeed here we hit a conundrum because EU leaders (as in the people who contributed to Greece being forced to undertake a second round of austerity) are praising Greece’s efforts and these figures. For example European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said”The Greek program of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms is on track.”

Comment

If one analyses these figures there are some weaknesses in them. For example I notice that revenues increased by 8.3% rather than the targeted 11.7%. This is in spite of a one-off tax implemented by the previous government contributing some 779 million Euros to the total. Sadly Greece’s deficit require continuous measures and not one-offs which by their very nature end. I understand that this particular tax is considered in Greece to have impacted adversely on growth. In addition some of the improvement is due to a reduction in tax refunds of 364 million Euros, but it appears that much of this is being deferred rather than stopped. Taking these factors out of the numbers means we do not have such a good story anymore on this side of the balance sheet.

If we now consider the expenditure improvements these look extraordinary and of Herculean-like proportions (sorry!). Reducing ordinary budget expenditures by 10.5% looks excellent on the face of it. However Greek contributors to my comments column have indicated to me on several occasions that this has been achieved in their opinion by the Greek government simply not paying its bills. One has translated an article from the Greek Kathimerini newspaper which suggests the following bills are currently unpaid. According to this the Greek state has unpaid bills of 10 billion Euros in 2010 which can be broken down into 6 billion to hospital suppliers, 1.6 billion to construction companies, 1 billion in unpaid VAT refunds, and rather curiously 0.1 billion to Media all around the world whatever that is, and the rest for bills such as the financing of investment programmes. Other sources at that period claimed the figure to be even higher, probably 11 or 12 Billion Euros. It is interesting that hospital suppliers feature highly here as the Greek governments failure to pay them has featured before in this crisis (at one point it had bills to pharmaceutical companies stretching back to 2005 and I believe that some companies stopped supplying her).

So there are serious questions to be answered about both revenue and expenditure but particularly the latter. Also if you wish a cheap hit on a deficit you cut investment rather than general expenditure and “Public Investment Budget (PIB) expenditures declined by 29.6%” so this avenue is being fully used. Unfortunately the easiest place to cut expenditure is usually the worst place to start. For example apart from the impact on Greek infrastructure and the follow-on impact of her economy think of the immediate likely impact on jobs. Perhaps here we have an explanation of some of the rise in Greek unemployment (to 11.7% from 10.3%) in the first quarter of 2010. After all the industries which are likely to be impacted by this such as construction tend to be ones which cut jobs quickly.

I notice that some in the Greek establishment are also starting to forecast that the fall in Greek economic output may be less than the 4% forecast by the European Commission/IMF for this year. If this is so and they can also manage the reduction in public deficits that the numbers in this article imply then they appear to have hit on the economic equivalent of the holy grail. In such an instance the new coalition government in my own country the UK should have officials in Greece to discover how this has been done, of course they would have to peer over the shoulders of officials from Spain and Portugal trying to do the same thing but they should still learn something. You see if I may add a dose of economic reality since these forecasts were made we have seen that the Greek economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of this year after falling by 2% in 2009 and this was pre-austerity. Another sad dose of reality is that unemployment at 11.7% already exceeds what many thought it would end the year at and as well as being distressing for the individuals concerned unemployment affects both public expenditure and revenues.

Unfortunately there is another question mark for the numbers and for once I am in complete agreement with euro zone officials. They have requested that Greek authorities incorporate into the general government deficit and public debt the net loan requirements of the public companies as well as their accumulated debts. This is likely to increase Greece’s budget deficit  by 0.5 % of GDP  and its national debt by 5.5 % of GDP.

I am aware that provisional figures have now been released for June as well but these lack a breakdown of the form I have discussed above and appear on the face of them to tell pretty much the same story with the scale slightly increased to a 46% deficit reduction. One factor in it does trouble me quite a bit. I have written many times about the dreadful performance over the past few months of Greek government bonds and yet

Interest expenditures decreased by 13.3% against an estimated 5.6% increase

How does that work exactly?

On this subject I have one last thought. Financial markets have many flaws but they love to make a profit. If this news was believed by them they would be buying Greek government bonds anticipating a rally and profits. However her ten-year yield is 10.39% and if we look at shorter dated maturities she has a (just under) 3 year bond yielding 11.08%.

UK Unemployment

Here as I mentioned yesterday was some good news with both registered unemployment falling by 20,800 and unemployment rate falling by 0.1% to 7.8%. On a headline basis employment (which has recently been falling) rose to 72.3% so good news all round. Except that one needs to be careful with the numbers as the rise in employment was caused by a rise in part-time employment of 117,000 to a record level and self-employment also rose by 59,000 which over-explains the rise in employment so in fact full-time employment fell. If you look at hours worked which in many ways is a better measure (although hard to compile accurately I would think) they fell. The inactivity rate fell too by 0.2% to 21.3% again reversing a recent trend.

So some hopeful news but we have yet to hit the headwinds of the public-sector job cuts and their implied impact on the private sector so let us enjoy it for what it is and cross our fingers for the future. For even the drop in inactivity looks as though it may be explained by temporary summer jobs, but then lets face it that is better than nothing. Also I keep re-reading the numbers and some of them appear to be (ahem) a little inconsistent so it may well be best to stick with the wider implications of these figures and not obsess on detail.

Advertisements

5 thoughts on “Greek Public Finances improve substantially in 2010: can we believe it?

  1. Hi Shaun,
    thanks for another great post and putting things in perspective. Apparently, it’s not only the financial markets that are not impressed by Greece. Slovakia’s government does not want to participate in the 110 billion euro package to Greece (a measly 800 million euros their contribution).

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE66E0V920100715

    Scrolling down below the jolly news at the top you find…
    “But the cabinet did not budge on a separate promise made to voters that it would not back aid for Greece, agreed by European countries separately from the EFSF.
    The cabinet recommended parliament not to approve an 800 million euro ($1.02 billion) bilateral loan to Greece, which would be Slovak contribution to the EU package.”

    Apparently Slovakia is not interested in helping out the French and German banks.

    js

  2. Hi Shaun,

    Long time no see, sort of. I had in my mind to write to you in your blog for the past 2-3 days, and yesterday I even saw your website in my dream (fully evolved into a website as well, not a blog), which I took as a sign that my subconscious self wants to talk to you 🙂

    Alright, here are the latest updates from Greek economy, fitting with today’s article:

    1) Today the National Confederation of Workers (supposedly the union negotiating minimum wages in the country et al, with more specialized unions negotiating their own “sectors”) did strike an agreement with the employers’ unions, as follows:

    a) The “13th and 14th salary” are explicitly mentioned in the 3-year agreement as “payable for the duration of the agreement and so long as the partners of this agreement do agree”, as a normal annual payment. However, it was not agreed to abolish the 13th/14th salary and incorporate their value into 12 monthly instalments, as was “desired” by the employee union.

    Still, considering the Greek Constitution tends to protect such agreements, it’s highly unlikely that the income in the private sector will now be highly recuced. This would also be the death bell for the country, considering that consumption etc has already dropped dramatically, even without the private sector losing (more of) their income at this time.

    b) 0% increases in 2010, and 1.5%/1.2% increases in 2011/2012 were agreed. These figures are in tune with the EU inflation, although they are markedly lower than the Greek inflation which is now steadily over 5%, and will stay there for a while with all the price hikes we’ve been through and are yet to see.

    2) Several public organizations have started whispering in the media that they cannot afford to pay X things. A big discussion is underway regarding public transport services in Attica / Athens, because supposedly they run huge deficits and the state refuses to pay for them in their current state. It is projected that the ticket prices will also rise sharply at the end of the discussion. The employees of these organizations, bus drivers in particular, were paid with a 4-5 day delay in July, for unknown reasons.

    Hellenic Post, the equivalent of Royal Mail, has not renewed the limited time contracts of postmen in certain areas, or has not hired new ones to replace ones leaving the service, and some areas do not have postal service. Literally, people living in these areas have to go to the Post Office and ask if they have any mail.

    Today, the Worker’s Residence Organization announced that it is unable to receive new applications for state-subsidized mortgage loans, and will stop subsidizing house rental fees for low income citizens. This organization is regularly paid through deductions of many employees in the country, who pay IKA (The “National Foundation for Social Security”, the organization mandatorily insuring employees) their contribution to it whether they like it or not, in order to be able at some point to benefit from it.

    However, the WRO claims that IKA owes to it 1.7 bn Euros (presumably from employee contributions?), and thus cannot operate normally at this point. IKA, on the other hand, states that if it pays the 1.7 bn Euros, it will not be able to pay pensions anymore.

    It is stated that other state-related activities are also grinding to a halt: VAT reclaiming to corporations is sent late, tax refunds sent comparatively late, tax reclaiming to petrol/gas stations where applicable also late, the list goes on…

    3) Unemployment continues to rise from what I know of. Also, a useful hint: OAED, the Organization for Employment of Working Force does register people as unemployed only if they actually go there once a month and get a stamp on their card. At some branches this is done quarterly. Now, guess what: Is your renewal on the 25th? Were you sick? Was 25th a Sunday and you went there on the 26th? Aw, such a shame. You are automatically deleted and no longer considered unemployed. Also, your benefits / whatever are cut off. Start over, please.

    That’s that for an update so far – Have a look, answer if you like, and I will get back to you later on, because I have to leave work and go home now 🙂

    Cheers,

    Ioannis M.

    • Hi Ioannis,

      thanks for the update, it’s consistent with what I am reading and hearing. A couple of questions.
      Has the Hellenic Post situation been looked into by the media? I have heard about it — mail delivered maybe twice a week in several Athens areas — but haven’t seen it reported.
      Also, are the public hospitals being resupplied after the reported agreement on debt, em, repayment between government and suppliers? It was reported — and I heard about it as well — that many public hospitals were not carrying out even emergency surgeries due to lack of supplies. Are they now supplied and providing services?

      js

  3. Hi Shaun,

    I followed this blog for sometime but never commented. I have to say I find your blog very informative, especially compared to other places in the media and easy to read.

    I have just been listening to Alan Beattie’s talk on “Why Greece should default” given on the LSE podcasts http://www.lse.ac.uk/resources/podcasts/publicLecturesAndEvents.htm.

    He agrees that Greece in worst position that being made out. However he feels it is a bluff rather than economic illiteracy. They are explicitly preparing for Greece’s restructuring via tasks such as the stress test. The economic measures placed on Greece are needed at some point, but they currently disguise this as trying to stop the inevitable.

    Also your penultimate holiday homework was to research the Swiss economy. In the last year I believe that Switzerland has started to stop bank accounts of terrorists etc. in cooperation with the rest of Europe. From films I am lead to believe that this destroys the raison d’etre for Swiss banking industry. Do you know whether this had an effect or if Swiss accounts are still popular with international leeders/dictators?

    Regards,
    Fletch

    • Hi Fletch and welcome and thanks for the compliment.
      I am listening to the speech as I type so thanks for that. As to the Swiss and the likelihood that they have benefitted from what might be called ill-gotten gains well I think everyone believes that don’t they? As to scale it is impossible to say. We go from what remains perhaps of gold and assets of the Third Reich to more modern funds from dictators and perhaps criminals. But it is impossible to quantify. Sorry… One thing I do know however is that there have been many occassions where Hollywood has distorted history!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s