12 thoughts on “More woe and problems for the UK trade statistics

  1. Hello Shaun

    I’d posit if we did do better then the GDP figures would embarrass the political classes governing us .

    Therefore they will not get better…………

    ( caveat : unless its to increase the figure making them look good )

    truth or accuracy is not a requirement

    Mind you its no bloody surprise to me that if they keep Gerry Mandering the figures that all the forecasts , and therefore planning , is wrong …..

    Also no accountability either , nobody in MSM will do anything because they’re part of the establishment .

    Forbin

    • Hi Forbin

      Yes the problem with meddling with the numbers is that as they get further away from reality it gets ever harder to go back to it. I do not necessarily mean the statistical difficulties but more the fact that someone would have to admit to having fiddled things in the first place. Oh what a tangled web and all that….

  2. Hi Shaun,

    The question is who is this data for. If it is for the UK public we don’t believe any of it anyway as its too often politically messed with, misquoted and of little consequence to us in our daily lives. If its for investors and the markets, one would hope they are not (that) stupid to believe it either and will make a decision based on much narrower points and shorter timeframes than data of this type typically covers.

    If it is just for economists and central bankers to mull over let them get on with it as they work in a sphere where pretty well everything is wrong anyway, and as the saying goes two wrongs don’t make a right.

    My guess is that it’s basically to provide cover for the establishment to enact “reforms”. Being wrong in this case makes little difference as they will just find other measures or plain lie.

    Dave

      • exactly why we need rule by plebiscite. I want a referendum on replacing the house of lords with oversight by binding plebiscite.

        This is a cost cutting exercise where the 0.1% suffer the reforms !

  3. “The ECB has turned down Monte dei Paschi’s request for more time to raise €5bn to reduce bad debt, the Reuters news agency reports. ”

    Is something big going this weekend to hide this from MSM ?

    oh I forgot – it will be in the small print on the back pages …….

    Frobin

    • Hi Forbin

      Yes there were rumours everywhere yesterday about Monte Paschi and a board meeting was scheduled for 3:30 pm. If what happened at RBS was any guide then the first job would have been to get the directors to realise that the band was no longer playing.

      Italy needs to decide whether to bail it out ( illegal in the Euro area) or bail it in and hurt the retail depositers who were miss sold BMPS bonds. So we can expect plenty of fudge. The deadline should be late Sunday night so it is all ready for the Asian markets to open.

      • It looks like the ECB have finally realised extend and pretend at least in the case of Italian banks is ultimately futile. It’s a huge risk though as if the government decides to ignore EU rules and bail it out will the EU try and punish them? On the bail in there will be a lot of very upset Italians and both scenarios have the background of possibly going into an election. I would expect extend and pretend is about to be swapped for fudge… Lots and lot of fudge.

        • Hi Dave and welcome to my corner of the web.

          That seems to have played out today as we had a barrage of official bailout hints combined with the bank claiming it was going again for a debt for equity swap. Why those who previously said no would say yes post referendum was not explained.

  4. While the headline gdp figure will not change the ONS in their pop-up amendment did suggest q3 expenditure calculation gdp would change.

    • However, the composition of the expenditure estimate of GDP will change from what was published in the second estimate of GDP Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016.
      From the amendment.

      • Hi am

        Yes but this leaves loads of unanswered questions as these numbers disappear from one part of the national accounts and pop up in another. This is not supposed to be like a game of Whack-A-Mole! We will have to see how it all settles down.

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