The economic impact of a higher dollar and interest-rate rises

We are in the middle of a central bank 24 hours and of course last night the US Federal Reserve continued its recent habit of only raising interest-rates just before Christmas.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative,

On the face of it not much of a change and it is only to as they put it 3/4 percent. However in the modern era there is a significance in that it is in a world of ZIRP ( Zero Interest Rate Policy) and indeed NIRP where N = Negative. This has been highlighted this morning by one of the forerunners of the NIRP world which is the Swiss National Bank.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%.

So we have another perspective which is that the spread between these two central banks is now 1.5% which is small in absolute terms but in these days is a lot. Also I note that an interest-rate of -0.75% is “expansionary” whereas one of 0.75% is merely “accommodative”. Oh and the SNB isn’t entirely convinced so we get yet more rhetoric from it.

At the same time, the SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

Already this morning a country which was previously expected to lower interest-rates has kept them unchanged as Norway remains at 0.5%. Although here there is also clearly an effect from the higher price of crude oil. Meanwhile later we will hear from the Bank of England which cut Bank Rate in August a move which I argued was unwise at the time and looks even worse now. No wonder Governor Mark Carney has moved onto discussing climate change rather than monetary policy or sledgehammers!

Bondpocalypse

It was only on Monday I was looking at the return of the bond vigilantes and overnight they have been active in some areas. For example the US ten-year Treasury Note yield has risen to 2.6%. It was only in early November that it was 1.78%. There have been effects in that period from the likely fiscal plans of President-Elect Trump and expectations for yesterday evening’s interest-rate rise but there was a further kicker. From the Guardian

But investors were caught out by surprisingly bullish comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen in the wake of the announcement and by projections showing that 11 of her 17 policy-making colleagues see borrowing costs rising another three times in 2017.

So not only was there an actual increase but the future path moved higher although to be more precise steeper as the Federal Reserve is really only projecting faster moves to a particular level. There is the obvious cautionary note that we were promised “3-5” interest-rate rises for 2016 by John Williams of the San Francisco Fed and got only one. But this time around the return of some inflationary pressure seems set to be on their minds.

This has seen the German 10 year yield rise back up to 0.36% in spite of the ongoing QE from the ECB. Whilst we are looking at this the “safe haven” problem they claimed to have fixed if getting worse as the two-year German yield is now -0.78%. Meanwhile the Bank of England has spent some £3 billion this week alone on a QE program described as a “sledgehammer” only for the UK Gilt ten-year yield to go back to 1.5% which is higher than when it came out of the tool cupboard. My Forward Guidance is for a sharp increase in inflation in the use of the word counterfactual.

Across the world in Japan there was plenty of work to do as the trend was against the recent promise of the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark yield at 0%. I will explain later why they may have needed to sober up Governor Kuroda to authorise this but it must have been a busy day over there to keep it as low as 0.08%.

Dollar Hollar

If we look at the fact that the Japanese Yen has dropped sharply to 118 versus the US Dollar you will understand why the keys to the Sake cabinet at the Bank of Japan may have to have been taken off its Governor. All his Christmas wishes have come true in spite of the fact he is unlikely to celebrate it. From 115 to 118 in a manner described by Alicia Keys as “Fallin'” or by Status Quo as “Down Down” . It seems to have affected Prime Minister Abe so much he is going to join Vladimir Putin in a hot spring later.

Mario Draghi will be pleased also as the Euro slips below 1.05 versus the US Dollar as it and the UK Pound £ (1.253) get pushed lower but remain in station.

For the US itself then we see a further tightening of monetary policy via the US Dollar which has risen overall by about 1.5% since the interest-rate rise announcement. As it was expected it must be forecasts via the “dot plots” for 2017 that have changed things. Via this route monetary policy has an effect before it happens or in fact can have an impact even if it never happens something which has led to central bankers to get drunk on the implications. Care is needed though because for any real economic impact the changes and moves need to be sustained for a period.

Bank of England

This is left rather in disarray by this. If it was a schoolboy(girl) it would be in the corner wearing a dunces cap. This is the problem of having a Governor who is a “dedicated follower of fashion” when fashions change! Should the US Federal Reserve deliver on its interest-rate promises then Mark Carney will look very out of step as inflation rises above its target. Also his “sledgehammer” of QE is currently being swept aside in the UK Gilt market by worldwide trends. No wonder he is now opining on climate change and income inequality although those unfamiliar with him would do well to note his appalling record in any form of Forward Guidance. He has not be nicknamed the “unreliable boyfriend” only in jest.

Comment

As ever let us look at the impact on the real economy of this. In itself a 0.25% interest-rate rise should not have much impact but the effect via the US Dollar will be powerful. Let us start with the US economy as we have a benchmark from Fed Vice-Chair Fischer which I looked at on November 9th last year.

The New York Fed trade model suggests that a 10 percent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a 2.6 percent drop in real export values over the year. Consequently, the net export contribution to GDP growth over the year is 0.5 percentage point lower than it would have been without the appreciation and a cumulative 0.7 percentage point lower after two years

The Dollar Index has in fact risen from around 80 in July 2014 to 102.6 now so quite an effect will be taking place.

If we look abroad for an impact then the obvious place to look is Tokyo as the Bank of Japan gets what it wants with a plummeting Yen but also faces rising bond yields. It seems set to plough ahead regardless which poses worrying questions for Japanese workers and consumers as rising inflation seems set to impact on real wages.

Meanwhile out song for the day has to be this from Aloe Blacc.

I need a dollar dollar, a dollar is what I need
hey hey
Well I need a dollar dollar, a dollar is what I need
hey hey
And I said I need dollar dollar, a dollar is what I need
And if I share with you my story would you share your dollar with me