Today brings the economic situation in Italy into focus as it readies itself for a ratings review. Friday the 13th may not be the most auspicious of days for that! However I should be more precise in my language as the Italian government will know as they get told 24 hours before. So as we live in a world where things leak, today will be a day where some traders will be more equal than others so take care. But there are plenty of worries around due to the fact that one of the central themes of this website which is Italy’s inability to maintain any solid rate of economic growth continues. To be more specific even in the good times it struggled to have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth of more than 1% per annum. This it was particularly ill-equipped to deal with the credit crunch and was left with weak economic foundations such as its banks.
Some better news
This was to be found in yesterday’s production numbers.
In November 2016 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index increased by 0.7% compared with the previous month. The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was +0.9.
The calendar adjusted industrial production index increased by 3.2% compared with November 2015
As you can see these were good numbers although not so good for economists whose expectations so often misfire. As the Financial Times pointed out there was a positive change in response to this.
Economists at Barclays have doubled their projected fourth quarter growth forecast for the eurozone’s third largest economy to…0.2 per cent…….. GDP growth is now expected to clock in at 0.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 0.1 per cent in the three months to December,
If you really want to big this up then you can say that the expected growth rate has doubled! Of course the issue is that it is so low and that even this would be a reduction on the 0.3% achieved in the third quarter of 2016. For a little more perspective imagine the outcry if a post EU vote UK had grown like that, twitter would have been broken.
The Labour Market
The data here is far from positive however as on Monday we were told this.
In November 2016, 22.775 million persons were employed, +0.1% compared with October. Unemployed were 3.089 million, +1.9% over the previous month……..unemployment rate was 11.9%, +0.2 percentage points in a month and inactivity rate was 34.8%, -0.2 percentage points over the previous month.
This is the Italian equivalent of a Achilles Heel and separates it from the general Euro area performance where the unemployment rate has been falling and is now at 9.8%. In fact it was one of only four European Union states to see an annual rise in its unemployment rate and we should make a mental note that Cyprus was another as this does not coincide with the message that the bailout was a triumph. Returning to Italy there was more bad news in the detail of the numbers.
Youth unemployment rate (aged 15-24) was 39.4%, +1.8 percentage points over October and youth unemployment ratio in the same age group was 10.6%, +0.7 percentage points in a month.
I hope these sort of numbers do not lose their ability to shock us and also note that time matters here as Italy is in danger of seeing a lost generation as well as a lost decade. So many must have no experience of what it is like to work.
The last week or so has seen quite a few nations recording a pick-up in inflation in December so we see yet another area where Italy is different.
In December 2016, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.4% with respect to the previous month and by 0.5% with respect to December 2015 (from +0.1% in November 2016).
Yes there was a rise but to a much lower level and in terms of Italy’s own CPI prices fell in 2016 overall albeit by only 0.1%. So as we observe low rates of economic growth we see that Italy is in fact quite near to deflation which for me would be signaled by falling output and prices.
Italian consumers are unlikely to be keen on the rising inflation level such as it is because it was mostly fuel and food driven.
Here is another difference as you might think that an official interest-rate of -0.4% and 1.5 trillion Euros or so of bond purchases in the Euro area would lead to house price rises. That is of course true in quite a few places but not in Italy.
In the third quarter of 2016: – the House Price Index (see Italian IPAB) increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 0.9% in comparison to the same quarter of the previous year (slightly down from -0.8 registered in the second quarter of 2016);
So not much action at all and in fact Italy has been seeing house price disinflation. The official index has done this after being set at 100 in 2010. It has gone 102.4 (2013), 100.1 (2014), 98.6 (2015) and 97.4 in the third quarter of last year.
So good for first time buyers and in many ways I think more welcome than the UK situation but surely not what the Italian President of the ECB Mario Draghi had planned.
This is a regular theme as well and I covered the Monte Paschi bailout on the 30th of December and apart from a debate as to how bad the bad loans are there is little change here. Yes the same bad loans which we were told were such great value only a couple of months or so ago. Also Unicredit is continuing with its 13 billion Euro capital raise confirming the view I expressed on Sky Business News just over 5 years ago. Eeek! Where did the time go?
We do have some news on this subject and it does raise kind of a wry smile.
UBI Banca, Italy’s fifth-largest bank by assets, has been cleared to buy for €1 the rump of three lenders rescued by the state in the latest step in Italian bank consolidation. UBI made the offer for Marche, Etruria and Carichieti to the state bank resolution fund on the condition the so-called good banks are stripped of €2.2bn in bad loans. ( Financial Times).
Oh and 1 Euro may turn out to be very expensive if you read my 30th of December post and the relationship of Finance Minister Padoan with reality and honesty.
Pier Carlo Padoan, finance minister, told lawmakers in Rome he was “convinced” the deal was good for the bank in question and confidence in the Italian banking system.
The discussion these days turns a lot to those bad loan ratios and how much of them have been dealt with. As ever there appears to be some slip-sliding-away going on.
The simplest way of looking at Italian economic performance this century is to look at economic growth and then growth per head. Sadly we see that GDP of 1555.5 billion Euros in 2000 ( 2010 prices) was replaced by a lower 1553.9 billion in Euros in 2015. But the per head or per capita performance was much worse as the population rose from 57.46 million in 2000 to 60.66 million at the end of 2015.
It is that economic reality which has weakened the banks (albeit with not a little corruption thrown in) and also led to the problems with the national debt about which we have also learned more today.
Italian General Government Debt (EUR) Nov: 2229.4B (prev 2223.8B) ( h/t @LiveSquawk )
The bond vigilante wolf is being kept from the door by the amount of bond purchases being made by the ECB.
What hope is there? Perhaps that the unofficial or unregulated economy is larger than we think. Let us hope so as Italy is a lovely country. But in contrast to Germany which I analysed on Monday the level of the Euro looks too high for Italy.