What happens if the Euroboom fades or dies?

Amidst the excitement ( okay the financial media had little else to do…) of the US ten-year Treasury Note reaching a yield of 3% yesterday there was little reaction from Europe. What I mean by this was that there was a time when European bond yields would have been dragged up in a type of pursuit. But as we look around whilst there may have been a small nudge higher the environment is completely different. Of course Germany is ploughing its own furrow with a 0.63% ten-year yield but even Italy only has one of 1.77%. In fact in a broad sweep Portugal has travelled in completely the opposite direction to the United States as I recall it issuing a ten-year bond at over 4% last January whereas now it has a market yield of 1.68%.

Of course much of this has been driven by all the Quantitative Easing purchases of the European Central Bank or ECB. This gives us a curious style of monetary policy where the foot has been on the accelerator during a boom. Putting it another way there are now over 4.5 trillion Euros of assets on the ECB balance sheet. However in another fail for economics 101 the amount of inflation generated has not been that much.

Euro area annual inflation rate was 1.3% in March 2018, up from 1.1% in February. A year earlier, the rate was
1.5%. European Union annual inflation was 1.5% in March 2018, up from 1.4% in February ( Eurostat)

As you can see the rate is below a year ago in spite of the extra QE.  However some ECB members are still banging the drum.

‘S MERSCH SAYS CONFIDENCE ON INFLATION HAS RECENTLY RISEN – BBG ( @C_Barraud )

That is an odd way of putting something which is likely to weaken the economy via lower real wages is it not? Thus confidence goes into my financial lexicon for these times especially as to most people such confidence can be expressed like this.

Global benchmark June Brent LCOM8, -0.18% settled at $73.86 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, down 85 cents, or 1.1%. It had touched a high of $75.47, the highest level since November 2014. ( Marketwatch)

So in essence the confidence is really expectations of a higher oil price which as well as being inflationary is a contractionary influence on the Euro area economy. Here is Eurostat on the subject.

 Indeed, more than half (54.0 %) of the EU-28’s gross inland energy consumption in 2015 came from imported sources

Sadly it avoids giving us figures on just the Euro area but let us move on adding a higher oil price to the contractionary influences on the Euro area.

Oh and there is an area where one can see some flickers of an impact on inflation of all the QE. From Eurostat.

House prices, as measured by the House Price Index, rose by 4.2% in the euro area and by 4.5% in the EU in the
fourth quarter of 2017 compared with the same quarter of the previous year……….Compared with the third quarter of 2017, house prices rose by 0.9% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2017

Those who recall the past might be more than a little troubled by the 11.8% recorded in Ireland and the 7.2% recorded in Spain.

Money Supply

I looked at this issue on the 9th of this month.

If we look at the Euro area in general then there are signs of a reduced rate of growth.

The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which includes currency in circulation
and overnight deposits, decreased to 8.4% in February, from 8.8% in January.

The accompanying chart shows that this series peaked at just under 10% per annum last autumn.

The broader measure had slowed too which is awkward if you expect higher inflation for example from the oil price rise. This is because the rule of thumb is that you split the broad money growth between output and inflation. So if broad money growth is lower and inflation higher there is pressure for output to be squeezed.

Other signals

The Bundesbank of Germany told us this yesterday.

The Bundesbank expects the German economy’s boom to continue, although the Bank’s economists predict that the growth rate of gross domestic product might be distinctly lower in the first quarter of 2018 than in the preceding quarters.

The industrial production weakness that we looked at back on the 9th of this month is a factor as well as a novel one in a world where the poor old weather usually takes a beating.

the particularly severe flu outbreak this year ……. The unusually severe flu season is also likely to have dampened economic activity in other sectors, the economists note.

Perhaps we will see headlines stating the German economy has the flu next month. Oh and in the end the weather always gets it.

In February, output in the construction sector declined by a seasonally adjusted 2¼% on the month. This, the Bank’s economists believe, was attributable to the colder than average weather conditions.

So the boom is continuing even though it is not. As this is around 28% of the Euro area economy it has a large impact.

This morning France has told us this. From Insee.

In April 2018, households’ confidence in the economic
situation was almost unchanged: the synthetic index
gained one point at 101, slightly above its long-term
average.

So a lot better than the 80 seen in the late spring/summer of 2013 but also a fade from the 108 of last June. Also yesterday we were told this.

The balances of industrialists’ opinion on overall and
foreign demand in the last three months have dropped
sharply compared to January – they had then reached their
highest level since April 2011.

That makes the quarter just gone look like a peak or rather the turn of the year especially if we add in this.

Business managers are also less optimistic about overall and foreign demand over the next three months;

bank lending

The survey released by the ECB yesterday was pretty strong although it tends to cover past trends. Also it seemed to show hints of what we might consider to be the British disease.

Credit standards for loans to households for house purchase eased further in the first quarter of 2018……..In the first quarter of 2018, banks continued to report a
net increase in demand for housing loans

And really?

Net demand for housing loans continued to be driven
mainly by the low general level of interest rates,
consumer confidence and favourable housing market
prospects

Comment

The ECB finds itself in something of a dilemma. This is because it has continued with a highly stimulatory policy in a boom and now faces the issue of deciding if the current slow down is temporary or not? Even worse for presentational purposes it has suggested it will end QE in September just in time for the economic winds to reverse course. Added to this has been the rise in the oil price which will boost inflation which the ECB will say it likes when in fact it must now that it will be a contractionary influence on the economy. This means it is as confused as its namesake ECB in the world of cricket.

Such developments no doubt are the reason why ECB members are on the media wires the day before a policy meeting ignoring the concept of purdah. Also I suspect the regular section on economic reform ( the equivalent of a hardy perennial) at tomorrow’s press conference might be spoken with emphasis rather than ennui. From Reuters.

The European Central Bank, after suffering a political backlash, is considering shelving planned rules that would have forced banks to set aside more money against their stock of unpaid loans. The guidelines, which were expected by March, had been presented as a main plank of the ECB’s plan to bring down a 759 billion euro ($930 billion) pile of soured credit weighing on euro zone banks, particularly in Greece, Portugal and Italy.

Also we return to one of the earliest themes of this website which was that central banks would delay any return to normal monetary policy. Back then I did not know how far they would go and now we wait to see if the ECB will ever fully reverse it’s Whatever it takes” policy or will end up adding to it?

 

 

 

 

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How is the economy of France doing?

It is time for us once again to nip across the Channel of if you prefer La Manche and see what is happening in the French economy. One of the oddities of the credit crunch era is how the UK and French economies have been so out of concert and rhythm. Yes both were hit by the initial impact but then France began to recover whilst the UK struggled. But then the Euro area crisis dragged France down whilst the UK pushed ahead from around 2013 . Now we may be experiencing another switch over so let us take a look.

France GDP

If we start with the economic output as measured by Gross Domestic Product or GDP then Insee told us this on Tuesday.

In Q4 2017, GDP in volume terms* increased again: +0.6%, after +0.5% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP accelerated markedly: +1.9% after +1.1% in 2016.

We can quickly see that it was both a better quarter and a better second half to the year meaning that 2017 was a fair bit better than 2016. This matters in itself but also because France had previously looked like it had got what you might call the Portuguese or Italian disease where so often even in what should be good years the economy only manages to grow by around 1%. Or if we one of the phrases of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney France had looked nowhere near “escape velocity” but now is building up speed.

Economists will like a break-down which includes both higher investment and what used to be badged as export-led growth.

Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated
slightly (+1.1% after +0.9%) while household consumption
expenditure slowed down (+0.3% after +0.6%)…….Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP
growth (+0.6 points after −0.5 points): exports accelerated
markedly (+2.6% after +1.1%) while imports slowed down
sharply (+0.7% after +2.4%).

A feature of this has been something we have also seen in the UK which is an improvement in the manufacturing sector.

In Q4 2017, total production accelerated slightly in Q4
(+0.8% after +0.7%), mainly due to manufactury industry
(+1.5% after +0.8%)……..On average over the year, total production sped up (+2.3% after +0.9%), in particular in manufacturing industry (+2.0% after +0.8%) and in construction.

A difference is to be seen in the construction sector which grew by 2.4% in France in 2017 whereas the UK construction sector has seen a 9 month recession. There is a hint of slowing in France as unlike the overall economy the construction sector slowed but it continued to grow.

Before we move on we need to note that the trade position for the year was not as good as the last quarter because of rising imports.

On average over the year, exports considerably accelerated
(+3.5% after +1.9% in 2016) while imports progressed
virtually at the same pace than in 2016 (+4.3%
after +4.2%).

Looking ahead

The various business surveys are positive with this morning’s being especially so.

French manufacturing sector growth remained
elevated at the start of 2018, pulling back only
marginally from December’s near 17-and-a-half
year peak. ( Markit PMI )

Even the higher value for the Euro on the foreign exchanges has done little so far to reduce the upbeat view.

Goods-producers continued to benefit from strong
demand conditions in both domestic and foreign
markets, with the rates of expansion in total new
orders and new export orders among the sharpest
in the survey history.

Also there was good news for a still troubling issue.

In turn, firms took on additional workers to enhance operating capacity and boost output.

This added to the picture provided in the latter part of January for the overall economy.

The French private sector economy started 2018
where it left off last year, with the headline flash
composite output PMI figure remaining among the
highest recorded in the survey’s near 20-year
history.

Also more hopeful news for the unemployed.

A sharp pick-up in client demand – indeed the
strongest recorded by the PMI in over six-and-ahalf
years – encouraged a further sharp round of
job creation.

As you can see the official forecast for the early part of 2018 is upbeat too.

In January 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly after having reached its highest level for ten years last December. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points. Nevertheless, at 110, it is still well above its long-term mean (100).

Another type of boost?

From the International Business Times.

France will include sales of illegal drugs in its gross domestic product (GDP) calculations.

The Insee statistics agency made the announcement as part of a pan-European effort for nation states to include the sales of drugs in their economic growth figures.

So er higher and higher but France will not walk this way so far at least.

Unlike the Dutch, France has ruled out including prostitution in the figures, saying that it cannot always be verified whether a sex worker has provided consent.

True I guess but a more fundamental issue is whether we have any real idea of the numbers as let’s face it these are areas where people are perhaps most likely to not tell the truth.

As to how much? There is this.

The head of Insee’s national accounts, Ronan Mahieu, downplayed the impact that the new calculations could have on French GDP figures.

He told the Local that France’s current GDP of €2.2tn (£1.9tn) would only increase by “a few billion euros”.

I have to confess that this bit was a little mind-boggling.

French revenues for illegal drug use will be based upon figures that are provided to Insee’s economics department by specialists.

Should they ever have to advertise for such “specialists” the internet may break!

Labour market

Here there have been improvements as in the year to December the unemployment rate had fallen from 9.9% to 9.2%. The catch was that it is still above the Euro area average of 8.7% and well above the 7.3% of the European Union.

If we switch to employment we see that whilst things are continuing to improve as of the last data set the state of play is not as positive from this leading indicator as the ones above.

In Q3 2017, net payroll job creation reached 44,500,
that is an increase of +0.2% after an increase of +0.4%
in the previous quarter. The payroll employment
increased by 49,900 in the private sector while it
decreased by 5,400 in the public sector.

Comment

As we make our journey through the French economy it is nice to be able to record better times. How much good news that provides to the UK I am not so sure as whilst it should be helpful to us via trade we have been out of phase with each other for a while now. A burst of economic growth will help France with this issue.

At the end of Q3 2017, the Maastricht debt reached €2,226.1 billion, a €5.5 billion decrease in comparison to Q2 2017. It accounted for 98.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), 1.0 point lower than last quarter. The net public debt declined more slightly (€ −1.5 billion).

But the major difference with the UK is the way that the employment and unemployment situations have diverged. Much of the difference but not all has been in lower paid jobs but jobs none the less. Meanwhile there is an area where the French seem to be getting more like the British.

In Q3 2017, the rise of prices of second-hand dwellings amplified: +1.6% compared to the previous quarter (provisional seasonally adjusted results), after +0.7%. As observed since the end of 2016, the increase is more important for flats (+1.9%) than for houses (+1.4%).

Over a year, the increase in prices continued to accelerate: +3.9% compared to Q3 2016, after +3.1% the quarter before.

If there is a catch it is around the need for such an expansionary monetary policy with negative interest-rates and ongoing QE at a time of accelerating growth.

Can the economic renaissance in France fix its unemployment problem?

Today gives us an opportunity to take a closer look at one of the running themes of this website which is the economy of France. It also gives an opportunity to look at the other side of the coin as its performance in 2017 so far has exceeded that of the UK. Indeed if you believe the media it is Usain Bolt to our Eddie the Eagle. So let us go straight to this morning’s economic growth release.

In Q3 2017, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* kept increasing: +0.5%, after +0.6% in Q2……GDP growth estimate for Q2 2017 is slightly revised upward (+0.1 points), in particular with the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

There are two clear changes here for France and the first is simply the higher numbers seen. The next is the stability of them as France did produce quarterly growth at this sort of level but then always fell back sometimes substantially in subsequent quarters. This time around France has gone 0.6%,0.5%,0.6% and now 0.5% which is well within any margins of measurement error. This has led to this.

In comparison with Q3 2016, GDP rose by 2.2%; such a growth rate had not been observed since 2011.

This is good news but it does come with perspective as it reminds us how poorly France performed pre 2017 and in particular how its economic growth was knocked back by the Euro area crisis. It did grow but mostly at a crawl.

The detail

The good news is that investment remains strong.

total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) remained dynamic (+0.8% after +1.0%).

However the economic dream of investment and net trade rising stalled somewhat.

The foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.6 points after +0.6 points): imports accelerated sharply (+2.5% after +0.2%) while exports decelerated significantly (+0.7% after +2.3%).

In fact economic growth relied mostly on consumption and rises in inventories.

Household consumption expenditure slightly accelerated (+0.5% after +0.3%) …….changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.5 points after −0.5 points).

The inventory position can be read two ways. The positive view is that it is in anticipation of further economic expansion and the less positive one is that it signals some slowing.

Another factor we may need to watch is the one below as the UK is far from alone in seeing car registrations dip in recent months.

In particular, it (exports) fell back in transport equipment (−0.5% after +6.2%).

I also note that France is also shifting towards a services based economy.

In August 2017, output increased sharply again in services (+1.0% after +1.3% in July).

Prospects

The official survey is still good ( above 100) albeit not quite as good as previously.

In October 2017, the business climate has weakened slightly after a steady improvement for a year. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point (109) after eight months of rise.

This leads to welcome hopes for a troubled area of the French economy.

In October 2017, the employment climate has risen for the second consecutive month…….The associated composite indicator has gained two points to 109, clearly above its long-term mean.

The PMI ( Purchasing Managers Index) compiled by Markit could hardly be much more bullish.

Flash France Composite Output Index(1) at 57.5 in October (77-month high) ……According to latest flash data, the resurgence in the French private sector showed no sign of abating at the start of the fourth quarter

They were even more bullish on employment prospects.

Buoyed by strong client demand, private sector firms continued to take on additional staff members in October, extending the latest period of job creation to 12 months. Moreover, the rate of  growth was the most marked in just shy of ten-anda-half years (May 2007).

Unemployment

This has been the Achilles heel of the French economy for some time as its sclerotic rate of economic growth has meant there has been little progress in reducing unemployment.

In Q2 2017, the ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France decreased slightly, by 0.1 percentage points. The employment rate and the activity rate increased by 0.5 percentage points. The unemployment rate in France stood at 9.5% of active population in Q2 2017.

Indeed some countries have unemployment rates similar to the long-term unemployment rate in France.

The long-term unemployment rate stood at 4.0% of active population in Q2 2017

Youth unemployment disappointingly rose to 22.7% in the quarter.

So there is plenty of work for the improved economic situation to do in this area and the survey results indicate that it is ongoing. However we do have a more up to date number from Eurostat this morning showing the unemployment rate rising from 9.6% in June to 9.7% in July, August and September.

Inflation

The good news is that there is not much of this to be found in France.

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should increase by 1.1% in October 2017, after +1.0% in the previous month, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month.

One worrying area is this “an acceleration in food prices ” which were 4.5% higher than a year before. How much of that is due to the issue pointed out by Bloomberg below is not specified.

France’s much-loved croissant au beurre has run up against the forces of global markets.

Finding butter for the breakfast staple has become a challenge across France. Soaring global demand and falling supplies have boosted butter prices, and with French supermarkets unwilling to pay more for the dairy product, producers are taking their wares across the border. That has left the French, the world’s biggest per-capita consumers of butter, short of a key ingredient for their sauces and tarts.

We do know that prices have surged at the wholesale level.

Global butter prices have almost tripled to 7,000 euros ($8,144) a ton from 2,500 euros in 2016, according to Agritel, an Paris-based farming consultancy.

Comment

This year has seen a welcome return to form for the French economy. Let us hope that it can continue it as it has seen a weak run. Todays data release shows us that GDP ( base 2010) was at 511.1 billion Euros in the first quarter of 2012 but only rose by 18.4 billion Euros to the third quarter of 2016 before rising by 11.7 billion in the next year. France did not suffer as directly from the Euro area crisis as some countries but it was affected. One impact of that was the way that its national debt to GDP ratio has risen to 99.2% so it will be hoping that the current growth spurt stops it reaching and then moves it away from 100%.

The European Central Bank has put its shoulder to the wheel in terms of monetary policy which has helped France in various ways. The large purchases of French government bonds which total 345.6 billion Euros have helped the public finances by reducing the cost of debt. Also the advent of an official interest-rate which is negative ( deposit rate -0.4%) indicates a very easy monetary policy. The catch here is how and we should add if the ECB can reverse course as we see that a Euro area which is now doing well ( this morning annual GDP growth has been announced at 2.5%) has a negative official interest-rate and ongoing asset purchases which are only slowly being reduced. After all monetary policy has leads and lags meaning that in general it needs to be set for around 18 months time rather than now.

Moving onto comparing with the UK then the quarterly growth rate is only marginally higher but the annual one is much better for France. Prospects for the immediate future look good and maybe there is an area where we are becoming more similar.

Overall, house prices increased by 3.5% yo-y in Q2 2017, after +2.7% in Q1 2017.

Happy Halloween to you.

 

 

 

 

 

Will 2017 see an economic rennaisance for France?

This morning has opened with some better economic news for France as GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) growth was revised higher.

In Q1 2017, GDP in volume terms* rose barely less fast (+0.4%) than in Q4 2016 (+0.5%).

The French statistical service have put in it downbeat fashion and you have to read to the end to spot it as it is right at the bottom.

The GDP growth for Q1 2017 is raised from +0.3% to +0.4%.

There was also a good sign in the fact that investment was strong.

In Q1 2017, total GFCF accelerated sharply (+1.2% after +0.5%), especially that of enterprises (+1.9% after +0.9%)……Investment in manufactured goods was more dynamic (+1.6% after +0.4%), notably in equipment goods. Similarly, GFCF in market services accelerated sharply (+1.9% after +0.7%), notably in information-communication and business services.

However it was not a perfect report as there were signs of what you might call the British problem as trade problems subtracted from the growth.

Exports fell back in Q1 2017 (−0.8% after +1.0%), especially in transport equipment and “other manufactured goods”. Imports accelerated (+1.4% after +0.6%)………..All in all, foreign trade balance weighed down on GDP growth by −0.7 points, after a contribution of +0.1 points in the previous quarter.

If we look back there may be an issue building here as import growth was 4.2% in 2016 which considerably exceeded export growth at 2.1%. So it may well be true that the French are getting more like the British which is something of an irony in these times.

You may be wondering how there was any economic growth after the net trade deficit and that is because inventories swung the other way and offset it.

In Q1 2017, the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth amounted to +0.7 points (after −0.2 points at the end of 2016). They increased especially in transport equipment and “other industrial goods” (pharmaceuticals, metallurgy and chemicals).

The optimistic view on this is that French businesses are stocking up for a good 2017 with the danger being that any disappointment would subtract for growth later this year.

Also as feels so common in what we consider to be the first world the manufacturing industry continues to struggle.

Manufacturing output fell back (−0.2% after +0.7%), mainly due to a sharp decline in the coke and refined petroleum branch and a slowdown in transport equipment.

Looking ahead

The good news is that the private-sector business surveys are very optimistic at the moment.

The latest PMI data points to further strong growth momentum in the French private sector, with the expansion quickening to a six-year peak.

Of course France has been in a rough patch so that may not be as good as it reads or sounds so let us look further.

The service sector saw activity increase for the eleventh time in as many months. Moreover, the rate of expansion accelerated to a six-year high and was sharp overall. Manufacturing output also continued to rise markedly, albeit to a fractionally weaker extent than in April.

As you can see the service sector is pulling the economy forwards and manufacturing is growing as well according to the survey. Unusually Markit do not make a GDP prediction from this but we can if we note they think this for the Euro area which has a lower reading than France.

consistent with 0.6- 0.7% GDP growth.

So let us say 0.7% then and also remind ourselves that it has not been common in recent years for there to be an expectation that France will outperform its Euro area peers.

However this morning’s official survey on households did come with a worrying finale to the good news stream.

In May 2017, households’ confidence in the economic situation has improved anew after a four-month stability: the synthetic index has gained 2 points, reaching 102, above its long-term average and at its highest level since August 2007.

What could go wrong?

Unemployment

This has been the Achilles heel for France in the credit crunch era but this too has seen some better news.

In Q1 2017, the average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) stood at 9.6% of active population, after 10.0% in Q4 2016.

The good news is that we see the unemployment rate finally fall into single digits. The bad news is that it mostly seems to be people who have given up looking for work.

The activity rate of people aged 15-64 stood at 71.4% in Q1 2017. It decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and a year earlier.

The business surveys are optimistic that employment is now improving as we see here.

Bolstered by strong client demand, French private sector firms raised their staffing numbers in May, thereby continuing a trend that has been evident since November last year. Furthermore, the rate of job creation quickened to a 69-month high.

Monetary policy

Yesterday we heard from ECB ( European Central Bank ) President Mario Draghi and he opened with some bombast.

Real GDP in the euro area has expanded for 16 consecutive quarters, growing by 1.7% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2017. Unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. Consumer and business sentiment has risen to a six-year high,

You might be wondering about monetary policy after such views being expressed but in fact we got this.

For domestic price pressures to strengthen, we still need very accommodative financing conditions, which are themselves dependent on a fairly substantial amount of monetary accommodation.

Is that a Tom Petty style full speed ahead and “Damn The Torpedoes”? For now perhaps but there are two other influences. In terms of a tactical influence Mario Draghi will have noted the rise of the Euro since it bottomed versus the US Dollar in December last year and would prefer it to be lower than the 1.12 it has risen to. Also more strategically as we have discussed on here before he will be waiting for the Euro area elections to pass before making any real change of course in my opinion. That leaves us mulling once again the concept of an independent central banker as we note that economic growth is on the upswing in election year.

Thus France finds itself benefiting from 293.7 billion Euros of sovereign bond purchases meaning it can issue and be paid for it out to around the 6 years maturity and only pay 0.74% on ten-year bonds. This is a considerable help to the fiscal situation and the government. In addition there are the corporate bond purchases and the covered bond purchases to help the banks. The latter gets so little publicity for the 232 billion Euros on the ECB’s books. Plus we have negative interest-rates and a Euro exchange rate pushed lower.

Has monetary policy ever been so expansionary at this stage of the economic cycle?

House prices

There was some further news to warm the cockles of Mario Draghi’s heart this morning.

In Q1 2017, the prices of second-hand dwellings kept increasing: +1.9% compared to the previous quarter (provisional seasonally adjusted results). The increase is virtually similar for flats (+1.9%) and for houses (+1.8%).

Over a year, the increase in prices was confirmed and strengthened: +3.0% compared to Q1 2016 after +1.5% the quarter before.

Up until now we have seen very little house price inflation in France and whilst the rate is relatively low it does look to be on the rise which represents a clear change. If you add this to the house price rises in Germany that I analysed on the 8th of this month then the ECB will be pleased if first-time buyers will not be.

Comment

It looks as though France is in a better phase of economic growth. This is certainly needed as we look at the unemployment rate issue but there is also another factor as this from French statistics indicates.

 2016 (GDP growth unchanged, at +1.1% WDA), 2015 (−0.2 points at +1.0%) and 2014 (+0.3 points at +1.0%)

As you can see the annual rate of economic growth has been essentially 1% as we note something of a reshuffle in the timing. Indeed in spite of a better couple of quarters the current annual rate of economic growth in France is you guessed it 1%! Somehow 1% became the new normal as we wait and hope for better news as 2017 develops. Should we get that then at this stage of the cycle I fear we may then be shifting to how long can it last?!

 

 

What are the economic prospects for France?

This weekend sees the first stage of the French Presidential elections which seem to be uncertain even for these times. A big issue will be economic prospects which will be my subject of today. But before I do let me send my best wishes to the victims of the terrorist attack which took place in Paris last night. If we move back to the economic situation we can say that the background in terms of the Euro area looks the best it has been for a while. From French Statistics.

In Q1 2017 the Eurozone economy is expected to grow at a similar pace as registered at the end of 2016 (+0.4%), then slightly faster in Q2 (+0.5%) before returning to +0.4% in Q3 2017. The main force behind the expansion in aggregate activity should be private consumption which benefits from the increase in disposable income and favourable labour market conditions and despite the upturn in inflation which is eroding household purchasing power. Moreover investment is forecast to strengthen, driven by improved expectations about near term outlook. Also investment in construction should accelerate. Finally, the positive international environment will likely reinforce external demand growth and exports.

As you can see according to them Goldilocks porridge seems pretty much exactly the right temperature as everything is expected to rise.

What about France itself?

 Some perspective

If we look back 2016 was an erratic year where quarterly economic growth was 0.6%,-0.1%,0.2% and then 0.4%. So whilst it began and ended well there was a near recession in the middle. Overall the growth at 1.1% was in fact less than the 1.2% of 2015 and it does pose a question as that is the level of economic growth which has caused such problems in both Italy and Portugal. Indeed if we look back we see that as 2011 opened quarterly economic output was 509 billion Euros whereas in the last quarter of 2016 it had only risen by 4,4% to 531.6 billion Euros ( 2010 prices).

This lack of economic growth has contributed to what is the major economic problem in France right now.

In Q4 2016, the average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and overseas departments stood at 10.0% of active population, after 10.1% in Q3 2016……Among unemployed, 1.2 million were seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployed rate stood at 4.2% of active population in Q4 2016. It decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to Q3 2016 and Q4 2015.

The fact so long after the credit crunch hit the unemployment rate is still in double-digits albeit only just echoes here. Also there is the issue of underemployment.

In Q4 2016, 6.2% of the employed persons were underemployed, a ratio decreasing by 0.1 percentage points quarter on quarter, and by 0.4 percentage points over a year. Underemployment mainly concerns people who have a part-time job and wish to work more.

Oh and if we return to the unemployment rate actually 10% is only a reduction because the previous quarter was revised higher. We could improve like that forever and remain at the same level!

The next consequence of slow/low economic growth can be found in the public finances.

At the end of 2016, the Maastricht debt accounted for €2,147.2 billion. It rose by €49.2 billion in 2016 after € +60.2 billion in 2015. It reached 96.0% of GDP at the end of 2016, after 95.6% at the end of 2015.

In essence this has risen from 65% pre credit crunch and the combination of an annual fiscal deficit and slow growth has seen it rise. France seems to have settled on an annual fiscal deficit of around the Maastricht criteria of 3% of GDP so to get the relative debt level down you can see how quickly it would need to grow.

What about prospects?

This morning’s business survey from Markit has been very positive.

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of normal monthly survey replies, registered 57.4, compared to March’s reading of 56.8. The latest figure was indicative of the sharpest rate of growth in almost six years.

The idea that elections and indeed referenda weaken economies via uncertainty may need to be contained in Ivory Towers going forwards.

The numbers provide further evidence that the French private sector remains resilient to political uncertainty around the upcoming presidential election. Indeed, business optimism hit a multi-year high in April, with a number of respondents anticipating favourable business conditions following its conclusion.

Even better there was hope of improvement for the labour market.

Moreover, the rate of job creation quickened to a 68-month peak. Both manufacturers and service providers continued to take on additional staff, with the pace of growth sharper at the former.

However a little caution is required as we were told by this survey that there was manufacturing growth in February as the index was 52.2 but the official data told us this.

In February 2017, output diminished for the third month in a row in the manufacturing industry (−0.6% after −0.9% in January). It decreased sharply in the whole industry (−1.6% after −0.2%). Manufacturing output decreased slightly over the past three months (−0.3%)…..Over a year, manufacturing output also edged down (−0.5%)

Bank of France

In a reversal of the usual relationship the French central bank is more downbeat than the private business surveys as you can see below.

In March, industrial production rose at a less sustained pace than in February.

Whilst it describes the services sector as dynamic I note that its index for manufacturing fell from 104 in February to 103 in March leading to the overall picture described below.

According to the monthly index of business activity (MIBA), GDP is expected to increase by 0,3% in the first quarter of 2017. The slight revision (-0,1 point) of last month estimate does not change the overall perspective for the year.

The cost of housing

This is very different to the situation across La Manche ( the Channel) and a world apart from the Canadian position I looked at yesterday.

In Q4 2016, house prices slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter (−0.3%, not seasonally adjusted data) after two quarters of increase. This slight downturn was due to secondhand dwellings (−0.4%). However, the prices of new dwellings grew again (+0.7%).

Indeed some more perspective is provided by the fact that an annual rate of growth of 1.9% is presented as a rise!

Year on year, house prices accelerated further in Q4 2016 (+1.9% after +1.4% in Q3 and +0.7% in Q2). New dwelling prices grew faster (+2.9% y-o-y) than second-hand dwelling prices (+1.8%).

Not much seems to be happening to rents either.

In Q1 2017, the Housing Rent Reference Index stood at 125.90. Year on year, it increased by 0.51%, its strongest growth since Q2 2014.

Just for perspective the index was 124.25 when 2013 began so there is little inflation here.

Comment

There is much that is favourable for the French economy right now. For example the European Central Bank continues with very expansionary monetary policy with an official interest-rate of -0.4% and 60 billion Euros a month of QE bond purchases. The Euro as an exchange-rate is below the level at which it started although only by 6%. So France finds that it gets a boost from very low debt costs as the recent rise in them only leaves the ten-year yield at 0.83%.

So 2017 should be a good one although there is the issue of why other countries have out-performed France. We only have to look south to see a Spain where economic growth has been strong. A couple of years of that would help considerably. But as I type that I am reminded of some of the comments to yesterday’s article especially the one saying house prices in Barcelona are on the march again. To get economic growth these days do we need booming house prices? This leads into my argument that we are calling what is really partly inflation as growth. The catch is that the numbers tell people they are better off but then they find housing ever more expensive and increasingly frequently unaffordable. As we stand France does better here but is that at the cost of higher unemployment?

 

 

 

 

The relationship between ECB policy and the economic performance of France

Today the Governing Council of the ECB (European Central Bank) meets to announce its monetary policy decisions. It does so in a very different environment to its more recent meetings because of the way that the economic winds of change have blown. What I mean by this is that the economic outlook is the brightest it has seemed for a while now. Also consumer inflation has risen to pretty much on target which poses a question for ECB policy going forwards as I have been pointing out for a while now, most recently last Friday. There is a clear contrast with the United States where expectations of an interest-rate rise this month are pretty much 100% now. Yet there is a problem as we note this from @fwred on the Atlanta Fed forecast for US economic growth.

Potentially HALF the growth rate of the euroarea in Q1.

This has led to hints of a change today this morning.

doesn’t plan to announce a new round of TLTROs, according to people familiar with the matter” ( @bondzilla )

So if true it will scrap a bank subsidy.

However I wish to take the opportunity of the second anniversary of the major QE program of the ECB to take a look at the impact it has had on France and its economy. It has provided a deposit rate of -0.4% a balance sheet heading towards 4 trillion Euros and thereby a lower level for the Euro although of course we can never judge any policy in isolation. The QE purchases have meant that 269 billion Euros of French government bonds have been bought easing its fiscal policy via the fact that it has some negative bond yields and only has a ten-year bond yield of 1,03%. So whilst that has become increasingly expensive vis a vis Germany it is also as Middle of the Road pointed out some years ago.

Chirpy, Chirpy, Cheep, Cheep, Chirp

The French economy

Lets look at it with a different twist as the particularly francophile Financial Times has looked at the French economic situation. It has done so on a political beat but for me the issue is monetary policy as over the period in question ( since 2012) it has been monetary policy that has been the main economic player in town.

The winner of this year’s election will inherit an economy that has been growing slowly but steadily since the 2008 financial crisis……..However, as the chart below shows, despite modest growth the country has underperformed relative to the likes of Germany, the UK and the US. Nevertheless, towards the end of Mr Hollande’s term things began to pick up. Growth last year reached 1.1 per cent, the fastest pace during his tenure — though it still fell well below the EU average of 1.8 per cent.

Let me just correct a factual error with this from the French statistical office.

On average over the year, GDP rose by 1.1%, practically as much as in 2015 (+1.2%).

So in annual terms not the fastest rate although it is quicker than 2012,13 and 14. In a way cheering an economic growth rate of ~1% poses its own question in an era where we have tentatively described the new normal as 2%. But if we skip the UK and US there is an issue in a currency union where growth is consistently below the average and the country which is considered with France at the heart of the Euro project which is Germany. The solution for that would be regional policy but quite how that would manifest itself I am not sure.

Unemployment

The numbers here continue to be awkward to say the least.

unemployment continued to creep up to a high of more than 10 per cent, prompting the president — late in his tenure — to take more decisive steps to tackle what he labelled an “economic emergency”……..unemployment figures have shown only marginal improvements over the past year,

There are other worrying features of the French labour market as well.

The reforms have so far failed to break France’s two-tier labour market. Last year, 86.4 per cent of total hiring was into temporary jobs — and of those, 80 per cent were for contracts shorter than one month. Meanwhile, long-term unemployment remains stubbornly high: more than 45 per cent of the unemployed in France have been without a job for more than a year, the highest proportion since records began in 2003.

It is not a good time to be young in the French labour market either.

France’s youth unemployment rate is roughly double that of the UK and continues to rise — in contrast with a decline in most advanced economies. The story is similar for foreigners and those with lower levels of education.

Accordingly the quantity number unemployment remains poor in spite of all the monetary easing and a chill wind blows through if we add in the reforms promised because the situation has not changed all that much. Also “emergencies” seem to last these days don’t they as I think also of the UK “emergency” Bank Rate of 0.5% which somehow went even lower to 0.25%!

If you are employed in a permanent job in France you have better conditions and perhaps better pay than in the UK. But for those outside such a position the outlook is worse, although some aspects seem the same as “contracts for less than one month” are not a million miles away from zero hours contracts in principle.

The state

This is larger in France than in many other places.

But France still has one of the highest public spending ratios among advanced countries — at 57 per cent of GDP. Within that, health, social and pensions expenditure as a share of GDP remain comparatively high and have risen since 2012.

Of course there are beneficial consequences of this as many French people are proud of their health system. Whilst the ECB continues with its QE bond purchases the fact that the national debt to GDP ratio is 97.5% matters little but of course unless France finds some economic growth we are left with what happens if the ECB stops buying?

House Prices

Let me throw in something which is not mentioned by the FT. If you look at French houses prices they were in the autumn of 2016 where they were in the last quarter of 2007. I do not know about you but with all that has gone on in the credit crunch era that seems so much healthier than the UK situation. What do readers think?

There is a catch though ( as ever…) as we consider the mortgage books of the French banks.

Regulation and Taxation

The Financial Times struggled here to present an optimistic picture.

Despite attempts at simplification, French companies “are still faced with a high regulatory burden and fast-changing legislation”, according to a recent European Commission report………At 48 per cent, the labour tax wedge was the fifth highest in the OECD in 2015 and French corporation tax remains the highest in Europe.

Comment

There is much to consider here and there are of course problems with using GDP as a yardstick. It is a long way from perfect but in essence monetary policy in the Euro area has been trying to drive it higher using the excuse that it is bringing inflation back on target. But for France there has been an improvement but only to a growth rate of around 1% so far. The opening of 2017 looks better but can that be sustained for the several years required? Along that road the ECB would have all sorts of questions to answer if it maintained its stimulus.

Something that should particularly benefit French business is the corporate bond buying program but as it has bought more than 10% of Euro area corporate bonds already how long can it go on? For a start it is anti-competitive especially if you do not qualify.

 

The unemployment rate in France continues to signal trouble

It is time for us to nip across the Channel or perhaps I should say La Manche and take a look at what is going on in the French economy. This morning has brought news which reminds us of a clear difference between the UK and French economy so let us get straight to the French statistics office.

In Q4 2016, the average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and overseas departments stood at 10.0% of active population, after 10.1% in Q3 2016.

Thus we note immediately that the unemployment rate is still in double-digits albeit only just. Here is some more detail.

In metropolitan France only, the number of unemployed decreased by 31,000 to 2.8 million people unemployed; thus, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points q-o-q, standing at 9.7% of active population. It decreased among youths and persons aged 50 and over, whereas it increased for those aged 25 to 49. Over a year, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points.

So unemployment is falling but very slowly and it is higher in the overseas departments. It is also rising in what you might call the peak working group of 25 to 49 year olds. It was only yesterday we noted that the UK unemployment rate was much lower and in fact less than half of that above.

the unemployment rate for people was 4.8%; it has not been lower since July to September 2005

Thus if we were looking for the key to French economic problems it is the continuing high level of unemployment. If we look back to pre credit crunch times we see that it was a little over 7% it then rose to 9.5% but later got pushed as high as 10.5% by the consequences of the Euro area crisis and has only fallen since to 10% if we use the overall rate. Thus we see that there has only been a small recovery which means that another factor is at play here which is time. A lot of people will have been unemployed for long periods with it would appear not a lot of hope of relief or ch-ch-changes for the better.

Among unemployed, 1.2 million were seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployed rate stood at 4.2% of active population in Q4 2016. It decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to Q3 2016 and Q4 2015.

The long-term unemployment rate is not far off what the total UK unemployment rate was for December (4.6%) which provides a clear difference between the two economies. Here is the UK rate for comparison.

404,000 people who had been unemployed for over 12 months, 86,000 fewer than for a year earlier

It is not so easy to get wages data but the non-farm private-sector rise was 1.2% in the year to the third quarter. So there was some real wage growth but I also note the rate of growth was slowing gently since the peak of 2.3% at the end of 2011 and of course inflation is picking up pretty much everywhere as the US “surprise” yesterday reminded pretty much everyone, well apart from us. Unless French wage growth picks up it like the UK will be facing real wage falls in 2017.

Productivity

There is an obvious consequence of the UK producing a broadly similar output to France with a lower unemployment rate if we note that productivity these days is in fact labour productivity. There are always caveats in the numbers but the UK Office for National Statistics took a look a year ago.

below that of Italy and France by 14 and 15 percentage points respectively ( Final estimates for 2014 show that UK output per worker was:)

My worry about these numbers has always been Japan which for its faults is a strong exporter and yet its productivity is even worse than the already poor UK.

above that of Japan by 14 percentage points

Economic growth

This remains poor albeit with a flicker of hope at the end of 2016.

In Q4 2016, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.4%, after +0.2% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP kept rising, practically at the same pace: +1.1% after +1.2% in 2015. Without working day adjustment, GDP growth amounts to +1.2 % in 2016, after +1.3 % in 2015.

However the pattern is for these flickers of hope but unlike the UK where economic growth has been fairly steady France sees quite wide swings. For example GDP rose by 0.6% in Q1 so the economy pretty much flatlined in Q2 and Q3 combined. Whether this is a measurement issue or the way it is unclear. We do know however that it seems to come to a fair extent from foreign trade.

All in all, foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP growth: +0.1 points after −0.7 points. ( in the last quarter of 2016).

But as we look for perspective we do see an issue as for example 2016 should have seen two major benefits which is the impact of the lower oil price continuing and the extraordinary stimulus of the ECB ( European Central Bank). Yet economic growth in 2015 and 2016 were both weak and show little signs of any great impact. If we switch to the Euro then its trade weighted value peaked at 113.6 in November 2009 and has fallen since with ebbs and flows to 93.5 now so that should have helped overall. In the shorter term the Euro has rotated around its current level.

Production

With its more dirigiste approach you might expect the French economy to have done better here but as I have pointed out before that is not really so. If we look at manufacturing France saw growth in 2016 but we see a hint of trouble in the index for it being 103 at the end of 2016 on an index based at 100 in 2010. So overall rather weak and poor growth. Well it is all rather British as we note the previous peak was 118.5 in April 2008. Actually with its 13% decline that is a lot worse than the UK.

manufacturing (was) 4.7% lower when compared with the pre-downturn peak in February 2008.

Of course there are also links as the proposed purchase of Opel ( Vauxhall in the UK) by Peugeot reminds us.

Oh and those mulling the de-industrialisation of the West might want to note that the French manufacturing index was 120.9 back in December 2000.

Debt and deficits

This has received some publicity as Presidential candidate Fillon said this only yesterday. From Bloomberg.

Reviving a statement he made after becoming prime minister in 2007, Fillon said France is essentially bankrupt and warned that it can face situations comparable to those of Greece, Portugal and Italy. “You think it can’t happen here but it can,” he said.

As to the figures the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP is better than the UK but of course does fall foul of the Euro area 3% limit. The national debt to GDP ratio is 97.5% and has been rising. On the 7th of this month I pointed out that France could still borrow very cheaply due to the ECB QE program but that relative to its peers it was slipping. That has been reinforced this week as for the first time for quite a while the Irish ten-year yield fell to French levels.  It may seem odd to point this out on a day when France has been paid to issue some short-tern debt but the situation has gone from ultra cheap to very cheap overall and there is a cost there.

Comment

I pointed out back on the 2nd of November last year that there were more similarities between the UK and French economies than we are often told but that there are some clear differences. We have looked at the labour market today in detail but there is also this.

There is much to consider here as we note that for France the new economic growth norm seems to be 1% rather than the 2% we somewhat disappointedly recognise for ourselves. Over time if that persists the power of compounding will make it a big deal.

Oh and of course house prices if we look at the UK boom which began in the middle of 2013 we see that France has in fact seen house prices stagnate since then as the index was 103.03 ( Q2 2013) back then compared to 102.82 in the third quarter of 2016