The ECB strategy review is just more of the same

This week is ECB time and this meeting is a material one on several counts. Things were revved up a bit last week by President Lagarde in interviews with Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

 we now have what I would call a simple, solid, symmetric two per cent target. So we express very firmly that we are determined to deliver two per cent. I think that is a big change.

Actually everyone thought that anyway but tucked in with it was a couple of attempts to mislead.

And maybe the really important third “s” is symmetry, because we affirm very clearly that there may be deviations up or down, either below or above two per cent and we state that we consider both deviations up or down as equally undesirable.

The new central banking mantra is to try to get inflation above target except in something of an echo of the Japanese situation there is a problem. Here is the Lagarde view.

Second, we also recognise the effectiveness of all the tools that we have in the toolbox.

Really? Let me now hand you over to Phillipe Martim a French economist in the Frankfurt Allegmeine today.

At the beginning of his theses there is a reference to “a failure” – that of the ECB. For a long time it has mostly fallen well below its self-imposed inflation target of 2 percent. “In 90 percent of the time between 2015 and today, inflation was below 1.9 percent,” states Martin; even in times of the D-Mark there was more price increase.”

Over a period in which the ECB has thrown the kitchen sink in monetary policy terms at inflation it has in general failed in its objective. Or as Phillipe puts it.

“Today the ECB already holds 25 percent of Europe’s national debt. How far should that go, about 100 percent? Will one day buy 100 percent of the Italian national debt? ”Martin emphasizes that he“ considers the worries in Germany to be legitimate ”. There is a “problem with budget discipline” when a central bank buys massive amounts of national debt. In addition, “the exit can create a crisis”.

I expect it to keep going with QE because it is caught in a trap but would advice caution with 100% numbers as there are some pension and insurance funds who have to hold bonds. So the “free float” available to be bought is probably more like 75% although we are chasing a moving target with so many being issued. As it holds around 40% ( Phillipe is behind the times) there is not the margin you might think.

But we find ourselves at the ECB probem which is that for all the hype it has a record of consistent failure regarding its inflation target. Also if you look at the growth performance of the Euro area it is in trouble too.

There was also a classic Lagarde fail.

 We are all on the same page. There’s a unanimous agreement. There is a total consensus around that foundational document, that constitution of ours.

This took us back to the early days of her Presidency when she promised to end the splits which had been seen in Mario Draghi’s tenure. Meanwhile only a day or two later.

ECB policy makers are split over changes to their language on monetary stimulus in draft documents being circulated before next week’s Governing Council meeting, sources say ( Bloomberg)

Listening To People

This has turned into something of a classic of the genre.

During the events that I participated in myself, and I heard it from other governors, key concerns revolved around, number one, climate change.

Exactly the same as Christine’s own priority. How convenient!

When it does not agree with what the ECB wants it gets neutered. So we have a good start.

The second concern that we heard loud and clear as well, was housing costs. Housing costs us a lot, we Europeans, and this was the case in many countries. Why is it not more taken into account in your measurement of inflation?

First tactic is to delay.

But second, because we know it’s going to take time,

Although as regular readers will recall we have been on this roundabout before as I followed a process which went on for 2/3 years and was then dropped. So in fact it should be quick.

But the next one is to water it down and frankly take away most of the point of doing it.

We will include housing prices through alternative indexes into our assessment of overall inflation.

The cost of owning a house, not house prices, right? 

We will include the consumption part of owning a house. So we will not include the investment part.

As you can see the interviewer saw straight through the attempt to mislead. The reason why she is dissembling is shown below.

Over the period 2010 until the first quarter of 2021, rents increased by 15.3% and house prices by 30.9%. ( Eurostat)

Deeper Negative Interest-Rates

Christine Lagarde clearly has the interest-rate issue on her mind.

given the effective low bound that we are close to, will have to continue being used.

Sadly she was not asked whether she thought it was the -0.5% Deposit Rate or the -1% rate on liquidity for banks? But we saw only a day later the ground being tilled for more,more more on her Twitter feed.

We have decided to move up a gear and start the investigation phase of the digital euro project. In the digital age people and firms should continue to have access to the safest form of money – central bank money.

Notice how it is presented as a gain for the individual which is always a be afraid, be very afraid moment. This is because it is the road to deeper negative interest-rates which Phillipe Martin would in some circumstances apply at 100%.

“If there were the digital euro, that is, the citizens had direct accounts at the central bank, that would be easy: If the money is not spent, it will expire, for example after a year.” Otherwise, prepay cards might also be distributed under certain circumstances that are invalid after one year.”

Even the IMF was only suggesting -3%.

Producer Prices

These may well be throwing another factor into the mix. From Germany earlier.

WIESBADEN – In June 2021, the index of producer prices for industrial products increased by 8.5% compared with June 2020. As reported by the Federal Statistical Office this was the highest increase compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year since January 1982 (+8.9%), when prices rose strongly during the second oil crisis. Compared with the preceding month May 2021 the overall index rose by 1.3% in June 2021.

The real issue here is the monthly increase and they turned last December and since then have been in a range between 0.7% and 1.5%. suggesting a Yazz type situation.

The only way is up baby

Comment

Christine Lagarde finds herself in quite a mess and may even have exceeded the Grand Old Duke of York.

Oh, the grand old Duke of York
He had ten thousand men
He marched them up to the top of the hill
And he marched them down again

There was a collective failure in her appointment as after the “Euro Boom” it was considered safe to appoint someone with her track record because Mario Draghi could set policy for the opening year or two. That went wrong quite quickly.

Next comes her claim of healing divisions when it appears they have multiplied. But more importantly there is the issue of policy which is in quite a mess.  There was a signal that the main policy of PEPP bond purchases would be tapered and we were pointed towards its end date of March next year. Personally I do not believe they can stop QE as last time it lasted for only about 9 months. But some believed it with the optimistic economic forecasts.

Sadly back in the real world things are looking much more awkward with the Australian Financial Review suggesting this earlier.

The Reserve Bank will likely backflip on scaling back its $237 billion bond buying stimulus and could lift weekly purchases to $6 billion, according to leading economists including Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

Reversing that quickly would be quite a record but as Australia has the strength of its commodities to help it, are you thinking what I am thinking? The Euro area does not have that. Will last week’s plans survive until Thursday?

Markets have picked up the pace with the German ten-year going even more negative and passing -0.4% today.

 

 

Bank of England QE is coming under increasing fire as inflation rises

This has been a bad week for central bankers as we have seen inflation soar above their predictions. The 5.4% for US CPI is not what the Federal Reserve explicitly targets but suggests a trend well above its thinking and that is before we get to the issue of the “transitory” or it you prefer “temporary” claims they have made. If you look at the statement to Congress of Chair Powell this week he shifted to expectations on inflation in response to this.

To avoid sustained periods of unusually low or high inflation, the Federal Open MarketCommittee’s (FOMC) monetary policy framework seeks longer-term inflation expectations thatare well anchored at 2 percent, the Committee’s longer-run inflation objective.

After all he can claim pretty much what he wants via them as opposed to workers and consumers paying higher prices who have no such choice. Also we had the UK with the targeted inflation measure going to 2.5% so 0.5% over and RPI at 3.9%. That is really rather awkward in a week where you have bought some £3.45 billion of UK bonds as part of a policy ( QE) to raise inflation.

House of Lords

They have published a report today which questions QE on a strategic level. One issue is how much of it is planned.

Since March 2020, the Bank of England has doubled the size of the quantitative easing programme. Between March and November 2020, the Bank of England announced it would buy £450 billion of Government bonds and £10 billion in non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds. In total, by the end of 2021, the Bank will own £875 billion of Government bonds and £20 billion in corporate bonds. This is equivalent to around 40% of UK GDP.

Those who have followed my “More! More! More!” theme which has been running for a decade will have a wry smile at this.

Therefore, the scale and persistence of the quantitative easing programme are substantially larger than the Bank envisaged in 2009.

It has also become the policy of first resort.

Once considered unconventional, more than a decade after its introduction, quantitative easing is now the Bank of England’s main tool for responding to a range of economic
problems.

Yet have things got better?

These problems are quite different from those of 2009.

The House of Lords does not explicitly say it at this point but let me point out that it has created problems along the way as the Cranberries told us.

In your head, in your head
Zombie, zombie, zombie-ie-ie

Inflation

Their Lordships have spotted the 2021 issue.

Despite a growing economy and expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, central banks in advanced economies appear to see the risks of inflation in terms of a transitory, rather than a more long-lasting, problem.

A fair point as after all whilst the flow may stop ( presently planned to be towards the end of 2021) the stock of £895 billion including corporate bonds will remain on the books. After all, so far, the Bank of England has not redeemed a single penny. So in monetary terms there will remain an extra £895 billion in the money supply although care is needed because what follows from it is not as simple as what was thought. especially by the Bank of England itself.

Quantitative easing’s precise effect on inflation is unclear.

It has been made less clear in my view by the establishment effort to remove ways measuring this by downgrading the RPI which is a pretty transparent effort to move the focus away from the house prices it includes. Can anybody think why?

Since they finalised their thinking the statement below has been reinforced by inflation going over its target as well.

The official inflation rate is already higher than
the Bank of England’s previous forecasts.

These factors add to the challenges here.

The Bank of England forecasts that any rise in inflation will be “transitory”; others disagree.

They then pose a challenge whilst also issuing a critique. After all it should have made its thinking clear.

We call upon the Bank of England to set out in more detail why it believes higher inflation will be a short-term phenomenon, and why continuing with asset purchases is the right course of action.

This leads to the crux of the matter because as I have frequently pointed out monetary policy takes around 18 months to 2 years to have its full impact. That may even have lengthened in the modern era due to the increased numbers of fixed-rate mortgages which is considered a major transmission mechanism. Yet we have central bankers who ignore that and at times claim that they can act during or even after the event which to mt mind requires the ability to time-travel.

The Bank should clarify what it means by “transitory” inflation, share its analyses, and demonstrate that it has a plan to keep inflation in check.

Interest-Rates

Their Lordships seem to have stumbled on my point that we will not see many if any interest-rate increases because of the cost of them.

Quantitative easing hastens the increase in the cost of Government debt because interest on Government bonds purchased under quantitative easing is paid at Bank Rate, which could be much higher than it is now (0.1%) if the Bank of England had to increase Bank Rate to control inflation. As a result, we are concerned that if inflation continues to rise, the Bank may come under political
pressure not to take the necessary action to maintain price stability.

That is of course assuming they do not follow the path trod by the ECB and simply change the rules of the game.

These included an option to not pay interest on commercial bank reserves.

This bit made me laugh and I hope it is humour.

While the UK can be proud of the economic credibility of the Bank of England, this credibility rests on the strength of the Bank’s reputation for operational independence from political decision-making in the pursuit of price stability.
This reputation is fragile, and it will be difficult to regain if lost.

Like so many central banks they lost it years ago.

Michael Saunders

We can now switch to the tactical rather than the strategic and yesterday one of the policy-makers said this.

In my view, if activity and inflation indicators remain in line with recent trends and downside risks to growth and inflation do not rise significantly (and these conditions are important), then it may become appropriate fairly soon to withdraw some of the current monetary stimulus in order to return inflation to the 2% target on a sustained basis. In this case, options might include curtailing the current asset purchase program – ending it in the next month or two and before the full £150bn has been purchased – and/or further monetary policy action next year.

So there may be several votes for ending the QE programme early. Not enough to win a vote but increasing.

Oh and his confession that they had for their forecasts wrong (most of you are no doubt thinking again) is rather devastating for their “transitory” claims.

Comment

If we switch to the benefits we seem to get ever more of something that has unclear results.

We found that the available evidence shows that quantitative easing has had a limited impact on
growth and aggregate demand over the last decade.

They do not point out the moral hazard of the evidence often coming from those operating the policy. There are also losses and problems.

Furthermore, the policy has also had the effect of inflating asset prices artificially, and this has benefited those who own them disproportionately, exacerbating
wealth inequalities.

I am glad they are making this point as I believe they did note my points about house price rises when I gave evidence to the RPI enquiry. Actually even the Financial Times may be forced into a rethink as it is its economics editor Chris Giles who led the charge to remove house prices from the RPI.

Finally it is hard not to have a wry smile at Lord King of Lothbury criticising a policy he started.

“I wonder if I’ve been changed in the night. Let me think. Was I the same when I got up this morning? I almost think I can remember feeling a little different. But if I’m not the same, the next question is ‘Who in the world am I?’ Ah, that’s the great puzzle!” ( Alice In Wonderland )

Inflation is back on the march

Yesterday brought troubling news on the inflation front as the US CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.4%. Personally I was more bothered by the annual rise of 0.9% due to the problems at the moment with annual comparisons created by the Covid pandemic. That set something of an underlying theme for the UK release this morning so to any logical person it is rather curious to find this being reported by in this instance Ed Conway of Sky News.

UK CPI inflation rises above expectations again. Up to 2.5% in June.

If you had not be following the producer prices data we check each month you did get a clue from the US yesterday. It has different specific circumstances but broad trends for oil.food and other commodities will be in play.

Thus this was not really a surprise at all.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.5% in the 12 months to June 2021, up from 2.1% to May; on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5% in June 2021, compared with a rise of 0.1% in June 2020.

We can break it down but the initial one helps a bit but as you can see whilst goods inflation is higher by the standards of this the gap is not large. However goods prices have seen a particular acceleration.

The CPI all goods index annual rate is 2.8%, up from 2.3% last month……The CPI all services index annual rate is 2.1%, up from 1.9% last month.

We can take that further although the official analysis is only for the similar CPIH as they try to force people to use their widely ignored favourite.

There were upward contributions to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate from 9 of the 12 divisions, partially offset by a downward contribution from health.

So the move was fairly broad and we can specify it more.

The largest upward contribution (of 0.08 percentage points) to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate came from transport, where prices rose by 1.3% between May and June 2021, compared with a rise of 0.5% between the same two months of 2020. The effect was principally from second-hand cars and motor fuels.

The second-hand car effect was something seen in the US where the unadjusted annual number was 45.2%. A lot of reliance was placed on the seasonal adjustment which reduced it to 10.5% as you can see by the difference in the numbers. The UK situation is not so different with second-hand cars seeing a monthly price rise of 4.4%. In terms of the technicalities they have reduced the weight by 20% which has proved convenient in keeping recorded inflation low but looks a clear mistake in hindsight.

Due to second-hand cars, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago. There are reports of prices rising as a result of increasing demand. This follows the end of the latest national lockdown and with some buyers turning to the used car market as a result of delays in the supply of new cars caused by the shortage of semiconductor chips used in their production.

That category was also impacted by rises in fuel prices of the order of 2.4 pence per litre which meant a 2% rise on the month for fuels.

Next come something rather troubling for those relying on seasonal adjustment.

A final, large, upward contribution (of 0.05 percentage points) came from clothing and footwear. Prices, overall, rose by 0.8% between May and June this year, compared with a fall of 0.1% between the same two months a year ago. Normally, prices fall between May and June as the summer sales season begins  but the seasonal patterns have been influenced by the timing of lockdowns since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics which adjusted US used car prices so heavily may have an itchy collar when reading that.

The ongoing issue of how to treat prices in area’s which see heavy discounting or the same from going in and out of best-seller charts swung the other way this month.

The largest downward contribution of 0.06 percentage points came from games, toys and hobbies, where prices fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main effects coming from computer games and games consoles.

Also the rate of increase of prices for pills,lotions and potions has faded.

A partially offsetting, small downward contribution (of 0.03 percentage points) to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate came from health. Prices of pharmaceutical products, other medical and therapeutic equipment rose by 0.8% between May and June 2021, compared with a larger rise of 3.1% between the same two months a year ago.

Tax Cuts

There have been some indirect tax cuts of which the largest has been the cuts to VAT. If you fully factor them in then the inflation episode is a fair bit larger.

The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is 4.2%, up from 3.8% last month.

 

 

No perhaps it will not all be passed through but even if you halve the impact you end up at 3.4%

Housing Costs

This has been a contentious issue for some time and the heat is not only on it is getting hotter all the time. Why? Well the official view is this.

The OOH component annual rate is 1.6%, up from 1.5% last month. ( OOH = Owner Occupiers Housing Costs)

I had to look that up because they quote all sorts of numbers to try to hide what is so obviously embarrassing. Even the man from Mars that Blondie sang about is probably aware that house prices are soaring and will be wondering how costs are only rising .

by that little? Especially when only 2 and and half hours later we are told this.

UK average house prices increased by 10.0% over the year to May 2021, up from 9.6% in April 2021.

So prices are up 10% but costs only by 1.6%! So what fell? Well mortgages are doing little so our official statisticians have to explain how their smoothed ( it is up to 16 months out of date) number for rents which do not exist impacts with reality.

After all how can you add soaring housing costs to the CPI at 2.5% and manage to then get 2.4% as CPIH does…..

I have regularly pointed out that this is an area of strength for the Retail Prices index or RPI and the reason why is shown below.

Annual rate +4.3%, up from +3.8% last month

It is picking up the rises that everyone can see much more accurately and let me specify that. It uses house prices via depreciation which is good but even it is handicapped by the smoothing process I described earlier and would change given the chance. If so it would give a higher reading right now and be a better measure.

Comment

I thought you might enjoy my perspective on the official inflation view..

The official inflation story
1. There wont be any
2. It will be transitory
3. It was above expectations
4. It is too late to do anything about it now.

Next there is the house price issue which if we put into the CPI measure at current weights would put it at 4%. Regular readers will have noted Andrew Baldwin commenting on this and so let me refine it. In reality if they let house prices in they will have the weights even though no brick is moved,window opened or door closed. But even if we so that we get to 3.2% and the Governor of the Bank of England is in the zone where he has to write an explanatory letter. That would be awkward as this afternoon the Bank of England will buy another £1.15 billion of UK bonds in an attempt to raise the inflation rate.

Looking ahead we see that whilst the shove is not as large as last month there still is a large one.

The headline rate of output prices showed positive growth of 4.3% on the year to June 2021, down from 4.4% in May 2021.

The headline rate of input prices showed positive growth of 9.1% on the year to June 2021, down from 10.4% in May 2021.

The monthly rise for output prices was 0.4% so the beat goes on. In terms of the input ones there was a 0.1% dip but this was mostly driven by the swings in oil so we need to check again next month.

Meanwhile is some action building in services inflation?

The annual rate of growth for the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) showed positive growth of 2.0% in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2021, up from 1.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021.

The Bank of England will be vigilant in its efforts to ignore house price rises

This morning has been one where a little known committee has emerged blinking into the spotlights. It is the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) of the Bank of England and just to prove that they are central bankers they got straight to what is the beating heart of their concerns.

he UK banking system has the capacity to continue to provide that support. The FPC continues to judge that the banking sector remains resilient to outcomes for the economy that are much more severe than the Monetary Policy Committee’s central forecast. This judgement is supported by the interim results of the 2021 solvency stress test.

We have learnt to be more than suspicious about the use of the word “resilient” especially after noting how across the Irish Sea what was labelled the best bank in the word suddenly collapsed in the credit crunch.  As so often it was time to throw The Precious a bone.

The FPC supports the Prudential Regulation Committee’s (PRC’s) decision that extraordinary guardrails on shareholder distributions are no longer necessary, consistent with the return to the Prudential Regulation Authority’s (PRA’s) standard approach to capital‐setting and shareholder distributions through 2021

How many civil servants does it take to let the banks pay dividends again? As you can imagine it has gone down well with bank shareholders.

Whilst they are there I guess they felt they also needed to help keep the lending taps open.

To support this, the FPC expects to maintain the UK countercyclical capital buffer rate at 0% until at least December 2021. Due to the usual 12‐month implementation lag, any subsequent increase would therefore not be expected to take effect until the end of 2022 at the earliest.

What about the real economy?

Some businesses have been hit hard.

The increase in indebtedness has not been large in aggregate, but has been more substantial in some sectors and among small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs)…..companies with weaker balance sheets, particularly in sectors most affected by restrictions on economic activity and SMEs, may be more vulnerable to increases in financing costs.

But it is not going to worry about them because others have not.

UK businesses’ aggregate interest payments as a proportion of earnings did not increase over 2020, and are around historic lows.

Such statements can hide a lot of woes especially for businesses where earnings have been hit hard.

As to households things are not as bad as when things collapsed last time.

The share of households with high debt‐servicing burdens has increased slightly during the course of the pandemic, but remains significantly below its pre‐global financial crisis level

Pumping up house prices was one of the few things we could do.

House price growth and housing market activity during 2021 H1 were at their highest levels in over a decade, reflecting a mix of temporary policy support and structural factors.

We need to find a way that people can borrow even more.

However, so far, there has only been a small increase in mortgage borrowing relative to income in aggregate, and debt‐servicing ratios remain low.

It has been good to see that low equity mortgages are back but in case that backfires again we had better cover ourselves.

The FPC’s mortgage market measures are in place and aim to limit any rapid build‐up in aggregate indebtedness and in the share of highly indebted households. The FPC is continuing its review of the calibration of its mortgage market measures.

Markets

This is an awkward area for central bankers. After all their main policy lever these days is pumping up asset prices via purchases of government bonds. The Bank of England will do another £1.15 billion of that this afternoon. So we get this sort of buck passing statement.

Risky asset prices have continued to increase, and in some markets asset valuations appear elevated relative to historical norms. This partly reflects the improved economic outlook, but may also reflect a ‘search for yield’ in a low interest rate environment, and higher risk‐taking.

Ah the very yields the central banks have set out to take away! This is also why those who set interest-rates and have previously been so busy cutting them are always in a rush to blame secular trends. It wasn’t their fault you see. Of course if it had worked it would have been their triumph.

It gets worse in the next bit. The Bank of England piled into the Corporate Bond market in spite of the fact that previously it had got into a mess in doing so. This is because UK businesses of that size are mostly international and thus often choose to issue in Dollars and Euros to match currency risk. Thus the £ sterling market is smaller than you might think and it ended up being like The London Whale in there. Also it was so desperate to find bonds to buy it bought the ones of Apple. Exactly what support did the richest company in the world need? Yet it tries to point put what is below as if it had nothing to do with it.

The proportion of corporate bonds issued that are high‐yield is currently at its highest level in the past decade, and there is evidence of loosening underwriting standards, especially in leveraged loan markets.

Encouraging that was official Bank of England policy. Below is as close to admitting they have stored up trouble for the future as they will ever get.

This could increase potential losses in a future stress, and highly leveraged firms have also been shown to amplify downturns in the real economy.

Next is even more classic central banker speak which completely ignore their role in creating this.

Asset valuations could correct sharply if, for example, market participants re‐evaluate the prospects for growth or inflation, and therefore interest rates.

Even Bloomberg pointed this out last week. What did central bankers think would happen in response to this?

Central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan have become ultimate market whales during the pandemic, with combined assets of $24 trillion.

Is there any market-based finance left after all their interference?

Any such correction could be amplified by vulnerabilities in market‐based finance, and risks tightening financial conditions for households and businesses.

Many reviewing this will think The Beatles were rather prescient here about QE.

You never give me your money
You only give me your funny paper

Especially if their situation is like this.

Out of college, money spent
See no future, pay no rent
All the money’s gone, nowhere to go

Comment

There are a couple of contexts here. I have critiqued the FPC as being a waste of space where people you have mostly never heard of are selected because they have the “right” views. The official view was that the FPC would set macroprudential policies which would keep house prices under control. Remember macropru as it became called? Where are all its supporters now as they seem to have disappeared?

“Over the last twelve months, our index has shown the average price of a home sold in England and
Wales has increased by some £32,500, or 10.7%. If we exclude London from this then the figure is a
very considerable 14%. Nevertheless, even including the capital, this is the highest annual rate since
February 2005. It is now fourteen months since any of the areas in our index have recorded a fall in
house prices, and this is while the UK economy has been under the severest pressure it has faced in
living memory.” ( Acadata)

So where are they then?

Still it looks as though one member has been checking his own position.

BOE’S DEP. GOV. SIR CUNLIFFE: PAYING CAREFUL ATTENTION TO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOME PRICES AND DEBT. ( @FinancialJuice )

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia decides to look away from surging house prices

We have an opportunity to take a look at a land which is both down under and a place where beds are burning, at least according to Midnight Oil. This is because the latest central bank to emerge blinking into the spotlight is the Reserve Bank of Australia or RBA. Here is its announcement.

  • retain the April 2024 bond as the bond for the yield target and retain the target of 10 basis points
  • continue purchasing government bonds after the completion of the current bond purchase program in early September. These purchases will be at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid November
  • maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances of zero per cent.

Perhaps they thought that announcing the interest-rate decision last would take the focus off it. A curious development in that who expects a change anyway? A sort of equivalent of an itchy collar or guilty conscience I think. Along the way they have reminded us that they also have a 0% interest-rate and I guess most of you have already figured that it of course applies to The Precious.

Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) are the means by which providers of payments services settle obligations that have accrued in the clearing process.

As someone who has spent much of his career in bond markets I rather approve of starting with a bond maturity but what is taking place here is a little odd. This is because as time passes their benchmark of April 2024 is shortening as for example it is now 2 years and 9 months. For example that is below the minimum term that the Bank of England will buy ( 3 years) and also central banks have in general been lengthening the terms of their QE buying arguing that such a move increases the impact.

If you think the above is an implicit way of cutting QE there is then the issue that it has been extended until November although with around a 20% reduction in the rate of purchases. That is similar to the Bank of England.

As ever they think they can get away with contradicting themselves because the economy needs help apparently.

These measures will provide the continuing monetary support that the economy needs as it transitions from the recovery phase to the expansion phase.

But only a couple of sentences later it is apparently going great guns.

The economic recovery in Australia is stronger than earlier expected and is forecast to continue. The outlook for investment has improved and household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape.

So do all states of the economy require support these days?

The Economy

The latter vibe continues as we note this.

National income is also being supported by the high prices for commodity exports.

That boost may well carry on if the analysis in The Conversation turns out to be accurate.

The panel expects actual living standards to be higher than the bald economic growth figures suggest.

This is because high iron ore prices boost Australians’ buying power (by boosting the Australian dollar) and boost company profits in a way that isn’t fully reflected in gross domestic product.

In recent months, the spot iron ore price has been at a record US$200 a tonne, a high the budget assumes will collapse to near US$63 by April next year as supply held up in Brazil comes back online.

The panel is expecting the iron ore price to stay high for longer than the Treasury — for at least 18 months, ending this year near a still-high US$158 a tonne.

So a windfall for Australia although they have omitted the “Dutch Disease” issue where the higher Aussie Dollar they mention deters other sectors of the economy such as manufacturing.

Another signal is going well according to the RBA.

The labour market has continued to recover faster than expected. The unemployment rate declined further to 5.1 per cent in May and more Australians have jobs than before the pandemic.

There may even be hope for some wages growth.

Job vacancies are high and more firms are reporting shortages of labour, particularly in areas affected by the closure of Australia’s international borders.

Although later it appears to think it will take quite some time.

The Bank’s central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024. Meeting it will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

House Prices

The situation is in rude health from a central banking perspective.

Housing markets have continued to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, including first-home buyers. There has also been increased borrowing by investors.

Well if you will pump it up as we note that “investors” are on the case.

The final draw-downs under the Term Funding Facility were made in late June. In total, $188 billion has been drawn down under this facility, which has contributed to the Australian banking system being highly liquid. Given that the facility is providing low-cost fixed-rate funding for 3 years, it will continue to support low borrowing costs until mid 2024.

This is a type of copy cat central banking where the RBA has copied the policy which has juiced the UK housing market. Looking at the credit data there is a lot of investor activity as total mortgage credit for that category was 669 billion Dollars at the end of May as opposed to 1.258 trillion for owner-occupiers.

Anyway here is the consequence.

CoreLogic’s monthly home price index rose 1.9 per cent in June, led by 3 per cent growth in Hobart and 2.6 per cent in Sydney.

The index rose 13.5 per cent over the past financial year just ended, with Darwin (+21pc), Hobart (+19.6pc), Canberra (+18.1pc) and regional markets (+17.7pc) leading the way.

That is the strongest annual rate of growth recorded by CoreLogic nationally since April 2004.

Inflation

Switching to the supposed target then things are in hand as long as you ignore the above.

In the central scenario, inflation in underlying terms is expected to be 1½ per cent over 2021 and 2 per cent by mid 2023. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily to about 3½ per cent over the year to the June quarter because of the reversal of some COVID-19-related price reductions a year ago.

Comment

There are quite a few familar themes here as we note that even recoveries these days need support rather than the old standard of taking away the punch bowl just before the party gets really started. I think we can safely say that the housing  market has the volume turned up if not to 11 very high. This means that for central bank action we return to the prophetic words of Glenn Frey and Don Henley of The Eagles.

“Relax, ” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

There is an Australian spin in the way that all roads here seem to lead to 2024. Is that a type of release valve? It looks like that at first but there is a catch. We have seen that central banks may reduce the rate at which they buy bonds under QE but they never reverse it. The one main effort by the US Federal Reserve was followed by it buying ever more. In the end central banking roads have so far ended at this destination.

Come on let’s twist again,
Like we did last summer!
Yeaaah, let’s twist again,
Like we did last year! ( Chubby Checker )

Where next for the economy of France?

Sometimes we find that one segment of news does fit more than one piece of the economic puzzle. This morning that has come from La Belle France.

In May 2021, output decreased in the manufacturing industry (–0.5%, after –0.1%), as well as in the whole industry (–0.3%, after +0.1%). Compared to February 2020 (the last month before the first general lockdown), output remained in sharp decline in the manufacturing industry (–6.9%), as well as in the whole industry (–5.6%). ( INSEE )

Late spring saw a couple of declines in manufacturing which caught out the forecasters mostly I would imagine because of this.

The easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions contributed
to a further strong improvement in business conditions in
the French manufacturing sector during May. Output and
new orders both increased at accelerated rates. ( Markit IHS PMI)

In fact they went further.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a single-figure
measure of developments in overall business conditions –ticked up to 59.4 in May from 58.9 in April, signalling a further substantial improvement in business conditions in the French manufacturing sector, and one that was the most marked since September 2000.

A reading of the order of 60 is supposed to be up,up and away growth not the contraction that was seen. Just in case it was some sort of quirk they rammed the output point home.

The trend in new orders was matched by that for output, with production increasing at the sharpest pace since January 2018.

Car Production

There was no magic bullet here as the main issue came from an area one should have been expecting after all the reports about chip shortages causing problems for modern vehicles, which use so many of them.

In May, output fell back sharply in the manufacture of transport equipment (–5.4% after –0.8%) due to shortages of raw materials in the automotive industry.

Manufacturing for the transport sector in France peaked in December of last year when it made 94.1 where 2015 equals 100. Since then it has been downhill with a very sharp fall of the order of 10 points in February and now we are at 76.2.

In terms of a breakdown we have this which compares to pre pandemic levels.

It slumped in the manufacture of transport equipment (−29.7%), both in the manufacture of other transport equipment (−30.0%) and in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (−29.2%).

So it is this sector with a little help from a 13.3% fall in the fuel sector that fas dragged things down. The other areas have done much better with some even managing a little growth.

Compared to February 2020, output declined more moderately in “other manufacturing” (−4.0%) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (−4.4%). Output was above its February 2020 level in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+1.9%) and in the manufacture of food products and beverages (+0.9%).

There have been some wild swings with of course the annual figures looking quite a triumph until you see what they are being compared with.

Over this one-year period, output bounced back sharply in the manufacture of transport equipment (+46.1%), in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+35.4%) and in “other manufacturing” (+30.4%).

Overall Economy

After the above you might like to take the next bit with a pinch of salt as we see what Markit IHS tell us from their latest survey on the French economy.

We’ve witnessed a complete quarter of growth for the first
time since the pandemic began, and the growth
momentum needed to drive a sustained recovery is
likely to build as pent-up demand is released and operating capacities expand.

Bank of France

Its projections are upbeat and tell us this.

After dropping markedly in 2020, French economic activity is experiencing a strong rebound in 2021. Following a start to the year marked by ongoing public health restrictions, the phased lifting of the lockdown and acceleration of the vaccination campaign should allow the economy to recover in earnest in the second half. According to our economic surveys, economic activity started to recoup lost ground in the second quarter, despite the emergence of supply difficulties in certain sectors. It should rebound particularly strongly in the third and fourth quarters, as the gradual easing of the public health restrictions leads to strong household consumption growth.

In terms of specific numbers we get this.

In 2021, GDP is projected to expand by 5¾% in annual average terms (which is higher than the euro area average of 4.6%). It should then grow by 4% in 2022 and by 2% in 2023

Which means this.

Activity should start to exceed pre-Covid levels as of the first quarter of 2022, which is one quarter earlier than foreseen in our March projections.

A lot of this is  the by now familiar idea of the savings that have been built up mostly involuntarily will be spent.

The strong GDP growth should essentially be driven by domestic demand in 2021 and 2022, both from consumption and investment. Household purchasing power was on the whole preserved in 2020, and should start to rise again in 2021 and 2022. Household consumption and investment spending are expected to accelerate further in 2022 thanks to the excess savings accumulated previously.

They are a little more specific here and as they do not say the savings ratio was previously 4-5%.

and the household saving ratio should decline from 22% in the second quarter of 2021 to 17% in the final quarter of the year, and then to below its 2019 level in 2022 and 2023

We can also put this “wave” in terms of Euros.

After reaching EUR 115 billion at the end of 2020, the financial savings excess is expected to rise at a more moderate pace in 2021, thanks to the fall in the household saving ratio , and should peak at up to EUR 180 billion at end-2021.

Inflation

If we remain in the territory of the Bank of France there are various different stories in play. It tells us this.

Inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) has risen significantly in recent months, climbing from 0.8% in February 2021 to 1.6% in April 2021.

We can update that to 1.8% in May continuing the upwards move which Isabel Schnabel of the ECB wants more of.

higher inflation prospects need to visibly migrate into the baseline scenario, and be reflected in actual underlying inflation dynamics,

Well it can be found in the Markit survey.

Finally, survey data revealed intensifying price pressures
during June. Cost inflation reached a 17-month high,
linked to greater supplier fees and shortages of inputs. The
combination of strong demand and rising expenses led firms to hike their selling charges in June. Furthermore, the rate of output price inflation was the steepest in almost a decade.

Or if they take a look at the cost of buying a house.

In Q1 2021, the house prices in metropolitan France continued to rise, but slowed down a bit: +1.3% compared to the previous quarter with seasonnally adjusted (s.a.) data, after +2.3% in Q4 2020. Year on year, house prices increased this quarter (+5.5% after +5.8%).

Comment

The situation is officially positive backed up by today’s PMI survey. But the official manufacturing data driven by the problems in the transport sector suggest a doubt. To that we can add this.

PARIS, July 4 (Reuters) – Health Minister Olivier Veran on Sunday urged as many French people as possible to get a COVID-19 vaccine, warning that France could be heading for a fourth wave of the epidemic by the end of the month due to the highly transmissible Delta variant.

That would be awkward just after this.

France lifted the last of its major restrictions on Wednesday, allowing unlimited numbers in restaurants, at weddings and most cultural events, despite fast-rising cases of the Delta variant. ( the national news)

So we wait and see what happens next especially in these areas.

and the start of a return to normal in tourism and aeronautics, France’s stronghold export sectors ( Bank of France)

Podcast

Will UK inflation exceed 5%?

The last 24 hours have seen the inflation debate move on in the UK and some of that has happened in the last ten minutes as the speech by Governor Andrew Bailey has been released. Many of the issues are international ones and trends so let me open by taking a look at what the Riksbank of Sweden has announced today.

Both in Sweden and abroad, the recovery is proceeding slightly faster than expected and the Riksbank’s forecasts have been revised up somewhat.

So like the Bank of England it has been caught out but its view attracted my attention because it is somewhat different.

Inflation has varied to an unusually large degree during the pandemic. This is partly due to energy prices but also to measurement problems and people’s changed consumption patterns during the pandemic. Inflationary pressures are still deemed moderate and it is expected to take until next year before inflation rises more persistently.

Not the inflation technicalities which are a generic but the fact they expect it next year which is different to the US view for example of “transitory” from now. We already ready know from one Fed member that “transitory” has gone from 2/3 months to 6/9 but more next year is a different view. Also “persistently” is the sort of language that will get you banned from central banking shindigs.

Andy Haldane

The Bank of England’s chief economist gave us his view on inflation trend yesterday which started with philosophy.

The first, nearer-term, is discomfort at whether continuing monetary stimulus is consistent with central banks hitting their inflation targets on a sustainable basis.

The fact he is publicly asking the question means he thinks it isn’t. But then we get the gist of his views for 2021.

With public and private financial fuel being injected into a macro-economic engine already running hot, the result could well be macro-economic overheating. When resurgent, and probably persistent, demand bumps up against slowly-emerging, and possibly static, supply, the laws of economic gravity mean the prices of goods, services and assets tend to rise, at first in a localised and seemingly temporary fashion, but increasingly in a generalised and persistent fashion.

As you can see he too uses the word “persistent” and does so twice, which is about a revolutionary as a 32 year bank insider can get I think. Then we see significantly added into the mix.

This we are now seeing, with price surges across a widening array of goods, services and asset markets. At present, this is showing itself as pockets of excess demand. But as aggregate excess demand emerges in the second half of the year, I would expect inflation to rise, significantly and persistently.

Actually aggregate excess demand is not what it was. What I mean by that is the change to us predominantly being a service economy means that there is a much wider range of responses to demand now.

For instance, hairdressing and personal grooming inflation was strong in particular, at an annual rate of 8%, and saw a 29 year high.

This is one example ironically in a way from Governor Bailey’s speech where there is a clear limit as hairdressers can work harder but only so much. Whereas other areas in the services sector may not be far off no limits at all. Oh and after him being on TV during the England game versus Germany I suspect we are onto the 2021 look now.

Pent-up demand, essential need, or recreating the early 1990s David Beckham look, I leave that to others to judge.

Returning to Andy Haldane his musings lead him to conclude this.

By the end of this year, I expect UK inflation to be nearer 4% than 3%. This increases the chances of a high inflation narrative becoming the dominant one, a central expectation rather than a risk. If that happened, inflation expectations at all maturities would shift upwards, not only in financial markets but among households and businesses too.

That has been reported as 4% which is not quite what he said but by the time one converts it from CPI to Retail Prices Index ( a 1%+ rise as for example it was 1.2% in May) we arrive at the 5% of my headline.

What does Governor Bailey think?

The opening part of the section on the economic recovery illustrates something of a closed mind on the subject.

what conclusions can we draw on the temporary nature of the causes of higher inflation

The next bit is a type of PR after thought.

and what should we look out for to judge if those causes might be more sustained?

Under his plan we look set to go to stage four of the Yes Minister response which is “It’s too late now”. One area where there is plenty of inflation is in the use of the word temporary.

There are plenty of stories of supply chain constraints on commodities and transport bottlenecks, much of which ought to be temporary.

Those dealing in shipping costs seem much less clear about that.

International #container #freight rates cont. their almost vertical ascent with the Drewry global composite rising to $8k some 6X the normal rate. Routes out of China surging on #SupplyChains disruptions, some temporarily triggered by Covid-19 outbreaks reducing loadings ( @Ole_S_Hansen)

Another problem is that the Bank of England has under estimated both the UK economy recovery and consequent inflation.

CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in May, just above the MPC’s target and above where we thought it would be in the MPC’s May forecast.

In the May forecast they said it would be below 2% in both the second and third quarters. I do not know about you but I would not be assuring people inflation will be temporary when these are in play.

 Further up the supply chain, food input prices were up, and producer input inflation was around a 10-year high.

Also if we look at the absolute disaster area the concept of rebalancing was for his predecessor it is brave and perhaps courageous to deploy it again.

Over time, this should lead to an easing of inflation as spending is redirected towards sectors with more spare capacity. But, initially, that rebalancing may be uneven.

I note that he is already tilling the ground should he be wrong.

His first point is no more than stating he might be wrong ( rather likely on his track record). Next up we get this.

Second, we could see demand pressures on either side of the most likely outcome.

Then.

Third, we could also see wage pressures arising if the number of people in work or seeking work does not return to pre-Covid levels, and inactivity remains at a higher level. A return of labour supply is therefore important.

The last sentence is rather curious in the circumstances. And finally.

Fourth, a further challenge would arise if these temporary price pressures have a more persistent impact on medium-term inflation expectations, which shift to a higher level inconsistent with the target.

That is a type of psychobabble as it is based on what exactly?

Comment

We have here the two main courses of the inflation debate with a side order from the Riksbank. The main debate has been about this year and it is the first to break ranks about 2022.  If we start with the Governor’s view we see the asymmetry problem repeated yet again.

It is important not to over-react to temporarily strong growth and inflation, to ensure that the recovery is not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions.

So if things go well you wait and if they are not going well you wait too, oh hang on.

Over the last sixteen months we have used monetary policy decisively to respond to an unprecedented crisis which was disinflationary.

Decisively on one side and on the other “we watch” is the new “vigilant”.

But it is also important that we watch the outlook for inflation very carefully, which of course we do at all times, particularly for signs of more persistent pressure and for a move of medium term inflation expectations to a higher level.

There is also an elephant in the room that everyone seems to be ignoring in the same manner as the UK inflation target does. So let us remind ourselves of how we started Tuesday.

Annual house price growth accelerated to 13.4% in June,
the highest outturn since November 2004. While the
strength is partly due to base effects, with June last year
unusually weak due to the first lockdown, the market
continues to show significant momentum. Indeed, June saw
the third consecutive month-on-month rise (0.7%), after
taking account of seasonal effects. Prices in June were almost 5% higher than in March. ( Nationwide).

Also remember inflation will be higher when the tax cuts ( VAT and Stamp Duty) expire.

Let me end with some good economic news via Sky but with the kicker that it is in an area that has proved highly inflationary.

Nissan announces £1bn ‘gigafactory’ boosting electric car production and creating thousands of jobs.

UK house prices surge again

One economic story of the Covid-19 pandemic has been the surge in house prices.Only yesterday we took a look at the way the US Federal Reserve is trying to manage public expectations.  Today we see a further challenge for the vigilant Bank of England.

Annual house price growth accelerated to 13.4% in June,
the highest outturn since November 2004. While the
strength is partly due to base effects, with June last year
unusually weak due to the first lockdown, the market
continues to show significant momentum. Indeed, June saw
the third consecutive month-on-month rise (0.7%), after
taking account of seasonal effects. Prices in June were almost 5% higher than in March. ( Nationwide)

As you can see they have had a go at doing the Bank of England’s job for it with the mention of what we prefer to call exit effects. But the final sentence rather torpedoes that effort as it points out prices are up nearly 5% since March.

The Nationwide has another go here.

Despite the increase in house prices to new all-time highs,
the typical mortgage payment is not high by historic
standards compared to take home pay, largely because
mortgage rates remain close to all-time lows.

The problem is that for the more thoughtful that is a reminder that mortgage rates and hence interest-rates cannot rise by much without causing what Taylor Swift would describe as “trouble,trouble,trouble”. Also it is kind of them to point out that mortgage payments are a third of take-home pay reinforcing the insanity of the targeted inflation measure ( CPI) ignoring this area. Also in spite of their efforts to tell us everything is fine they cannot avoid a consequence in terms of capital required.

However, house prices are close to a record high relative to
average incomes. This is important because it makes it even
harder for prospective first time buyers to raise a deposit. For example, a 10% deposit is over 50% of typical first time
buyer’s income.

Stamp Duty

We got a hint of what will happen when the holiday here is over from Scotland.

But conditions were more muted in Scotland, which saw a
modest increase in annual growth to 7.1% (from 6.9% last
quarter) and was also the weakest performing part of the UK.
This may reflect that the stamp duty (LBTT) holiday in
Scotland ended on 31 March.

So still growth but much slower reminding us that such holidays simply seem to add any tax gain to prices. So the real winners are in fact existing owners.

By contrast Northern Ireland at 14% and Wales at 13.4% led the rises and would presumably be higher now if we had June numbers rather than quarterly ones.

Mortgages

The Nationwide points out that there has been anther official effort to juice the mortgage market.

The improving availability of mortgages for those with a
small deposit (and the continued availability of the
government’s Help to Buy equity loan scheme) is helping
some people over the deposit hurdle, but it is still very
challenging for most.

Maybe that was in play at least in part in the latest mortgage data from the Bank of England.

Net mortgage borrowing bounced back to £6.6 billion in May. This followed variability in the previous couple of months in anticipation of the reduction in stamp duty ending, which has been extended to the end of June. Net borrowing was £3.0 billion in April, following a record £11.4 billion of net borrowing in March

So a bounce back from these numbers compared to April.

Net borrowing in May was slightly higher than the monthly average for the six months to April 2021 and above the average of £4.2 billion in the year to February 2020.

So a combination of the stamp duty extension and an attempt to make more low deposit mortgages available has pumped up the volume.

If we look further down the chain we see this.

Approvals for house purchases increased slightly in May to 87,500, from 86,900 in April. They have fallen from a recent peak of 103,200 in November, but remain above pre-February 2020 levels. Approvals for remortgage (which only capture remortgaging with a different lender) rose slightly to 34,800 in May, from 33,400 in April. This remains low compared to the months running up to February 2020.

So a small rise and Neal Hudson has looked back for some perspective on them.

Mortgage approvals for house purchase were still 32% higher than recent average (2014-19) in May.

Savings

These are another factor in the game because we have seen them soar in the pandemic era as some received furlough payments whilst having lower bills ( no commuting) and less ability to spend due to lockdown. In spite of the increased freedoms it still seems to be happening.

Households deposited an additional £7.0 billion with banks and building societies in May. The net flow has fallen in recent months, and compares to an average net flow of £16.5 billion in the six months to April 2021  and a series peak of £27.6 billion in May 2020. The flow is nevertheless relatively strong – in the year to February 2020, the average inflow was £4.7 billion. ( Bank of England)

So there is money potentially available for house purchase deposits from this source as prospective buyers boost savings or perhaps the bank of mum and dad is more flush with funds.

Whilst we are on the subject of saving we saw more from another source as people who could increased their rate of mortgage repayment.

Gross lending was a little higher at £24.2 billion, while gross repayments dropped to £18.9 billion.

That was of course another example of central bank policy misfiring as a type of precautionary saving acted in the opposite direction to the hoped for one. We see this a lot well except in central banking research.

Consumer Credit

If we look back to the heady pre credit crunch days we can recall that even this area was deployed to boost housing credit as people were able to sign their own income chits. More recently that has been unlikely as we have seen falls but of you hear feet hammering on the floor earlier it was probably at the Bank of England as staff rushed to be first to inform Governor Andrew Bailey about this.

However, for the first time since August 2020, consumers borrowed more than they paid off in May, with net borrowing of £0.3 billion.

We even got some detail from the numbers which is rare. Regular readers will know I have been keen to track car finance movements but we only get an occasional glimpse behind the curtains.

The increase in net consumer credit reflected an additional £0.4 billion of ‘other’ forms of consumer credit, such as car dealership finance and personal loans. Credit card lending remained weak compared to pre-February 2020 levels, with a net repayment of £0.1 billion.

Comment

The monetary push from the Bank of England goes on as we note the reason for the Nationwide being able to claim that mortgage repayments are affordable.

The rate on the outstanding stock of mortgages remained unchanged at a series low of 2.07%……..The ‘effective’ rate – the actual interest rate paid – on newly drawn mortgages rose 2 basis points to 1.90% in May.

It was no surprise we saw a nudge higher in May but since then not much has happened in terms of bond yields and hence fixed-rate mortgages. As to supply of mortgages we saw the Bank of England funnel cash to the banks only for the furlough schemes to mean they had plenty of new deposits too.

As ever Bank of England research is focused on this area and if you read between the lines you see that banks rip customers off if they can. Their way of explaining that is highlighted below.

What drives these patterns of customer choices and price dispersion? We show that customers facing large price dispersion are typically those borrowing large amounts relative to both their income and the value of their house. These tend to be younger customers, and are more likely to be buying a house for the first time. Lenders thus price discriminate, offering menus with greater price dispersion to customers who may be less able to identify and avoid expensive options, or have fewer options to go elsewhere.

 

Producer Price Inflation surges in Spain

Some days the economic news just rolls neatly into the current economic debate and this morning is an example of that. If we look at Spain we are told this.

The annual rate of the general Industrial Price Index (IPRI) in the month of May is 15.3%, more than two points above that registered in April and the highest since January
1983.

So their version of producer prices is on a bit of a charge and this is repeated in the monthly figures.

In May, the monthly variation rate of the general IPRI is 1.6%.

If we look into the detail we see that this was a major factor.

Energy, whose variation of 2.6% is due to the rise in Oil refining, Production
Of gas; pipeline distribution of gaseous fuels and Production, transportation and
electrical power distribution. The impact of this sector on the general index is 0.824.

So half of the May move is a rise in energy prices and we know that this theme has continued this month as we note that Brent Crude futures are just below US $76 per barrel.

The other factors were.

Intermediate goods, which presents a monthly rate of 2.1% and an effect of 0.601….Non-durable consumer goods, with a rate of 0.6% and an effect of 0.149, caused by the increase in the prices of the Manufacture of vegetable oils and fats and animals.

So we see that energy and intermediate prices are on a bit of a charge but that so far this has not really fed into consumer goods. In terms of a pattern we see that something seems to have changed in November ( up 0.9%) last year and since then we have seen quite an increase overall.

As we will be moving on to consider the implications for the ECB let us note the number it will ask for.

The annual variation rate of the general index without Energy increases more than one and a half points, up to 7.1%, standing more than eight points below that of the general IPRI. This rate is the most since July 1995.

So they lower the number but cannot avoid the general principle of an inflationary push.

Euro area money supply

If we now switch to the money supply we have the ECB trying to pump it up to generate inflation and here are it latest efforts.

Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 8.4% in May 2021 from 9.2% in April……Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 11.6% in May from 12.3% in April.

This leads to several impressions. Firstly these are high rates of annual growth and next they are slowing. But care if needed with the latter view because the monthly rise in broad money was higher as 65 billion Euros in March and 43 billion in April has been followed by 76 billion in May. It was not narrow money which was virtually the same in May as it was in March after a small dip in April.

The banks are still seeing cash pour in which of course has been a feature of these pandemic times although again the annual numbers show some slowing.

From the perspective of the holding sectors of deposits in M3, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households decreased to 7.9% in May from 8.3% in April, while the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-financial corporations decreased to 8.9% in May from 12.8% in April. Finally, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-monetary financial corporations (excluding insurance corporations and pension funds) increased to 11.4% in May from 8.7% in April.

The actual numbers for deposit increases coincide with this more than the previous ones as we note the increase in overnight deposits has gone 69 billion Euros in March then 45 billion in April, followed by 59 billion in May.

Credit

These numbers are hard to interpret right now. This is because they are a lagging indicator of economic activity but got a sharp shove higher in the spring of last year via central bank and government action. However there is one area we can look at from several angles.

The annual growth rate of credit to general government decreased to 15.4% in May from 18.0% in April,

There clearly has been a lot going on here and you will not be surprised to read that there was a clear shift last March. The annual growth rate had been negative for a while signalling a type of austerity but then went positive rising to a peak growth rate of 24% in February. The monthly rate has been falling overall ( 67 billion then 27 then 37 in May) but it is now some 6.1 trillion Euros.

@fwred has been crunching some numbers for the French public debt.

French public debt rose to a new high in Q1, at 118% of GDP

But someone has been buying.

the Eurosystem ( @banquedefrance @ecb ) holds more than 20% of general government debt, returning interest payments to the state eventually. Excluding Eurosystem holdings, French public debt has risen slightly since 2015 and stands at 94% of GDP.

So QE excluded there has not been much change and of course as we observe so often an SPV fixes everything!

 On the upside, the first payout from the European Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) should help to ease the deficit. ( Bank of France)

Well until Eurostat makes them include it anyway.

The European Commission has today adopted a positive assessment of France’s recovery and resilience plan. This is an important step towards the EU disbursing €39.4 billion in grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). ( European Commission)

Comment

As we have seen today the current central banking challenge is the fact that we are seeing inflation warning signals whilst they are still pumping up the money supply. This provides quite a challenge and reverses past central banking rules. There are various features of this as the ECB like so many central banks funneled cash to the banking sector just before the furlough schemes did exactly the same thing. I note that Isabel Schnabel estimated yesterday that there were 400 billion of excess savings at the end of 2020 so there will be more now. Eventually these will be spent giving the economy another shove at a time of supply issues such as the lack of semiconductors for the motor industry.

There are growing problems with the claims that inflation is low if we return to Spain.

The  Government is  going to approve this Thursday in an   extraordinary Council of Ministers a  lowering of the VAT on electricity from 21 to 10% , as confirmed by sources from  United Podemos  to RTVE in the first instance and sources from Moncloa later.

Also there is the area which escapes the official inflation numbers.

ECB’S SCHNABEL: THE FACT THAT HICP MEASURES DO NOT ADEQUATELY ACCOUNT FOR OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING IS A KEY FLAW. ( @FinancialJuice)

Actually they do not account for it at all but let us give her some credit for at least mentioning the issue.

What can we expect next from the Bank of England?

Welcome to Super Thursday as it is Bank of England day. Well of a sort anyway as they actually voted yesterday evening in one of former Governor Mark Carney’s changes where he preferred bureaucratic convenience( having the Minutes ready) over the risk of a market leak. The latter has in fact happened with if I recall correctly The Sun newspaper being in the van of providing an “early wire” into the last QE expansion.

There is a particular significance due to the change in the situation and this was highlighted yesterday by some news from the United States.

Now the one thing you said, which is something that we are looking at, is that when I talk to businesses, they are saying that it’s going to be temporary, but temporary is going to be a little longer than we had expected initially. So rather than it being a two- to three-month, it may be a six- to nine-month factor. And this is something that we’re going to have to pay attention to see if that changes how people approach the economy.

That was Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed and the emphasis is mine. It was not only me noting that as the next question from NPR shows.

KING: And if it is six to nine months, as opposed to two to three months, is there something specific that the Fed should be doing?

The reply is fascinating.

BOSTIC: Well, I think there are a couple of things that we would do. First of all, we’d monitor very closely what’s happening with expectations. That is the key to determining whether there are some real structural changes in how the economy is playing out. And then the second is really to dive deeper into this to see if there are things that policymakers might be able to do to break the – those dynamics and leave the crisis to return to normal.

So basically nothing and here he is later explaining that.

We’re still 7.5 million jobs short of where we were pre-pandemic, and that is a benchmark that I think we all need to keep our eye on.

Later he told reporters this.

“Given the upside surprises and recent data points, I pulled forward my projection for a first move to late 2022” Adds he has 2 moves in 2023 ( @bcheungz )

So not much use for now and in fact it gets worse because he is projecting interest-rate moves for years in which he is a non-voter. Also there was a question which will have discomfited them as it asked about an area they normally ignore which is necessities which in central banking terms are mostly non-core.

Are we seeing the rise – a rise in prices of basics, things that families need, like bread and milk and diapers?

Pack animal behaviour

The reason I am emphasising the points about is that these days central bankers the world around are mostly like clones. So they believe and do the same things, to the extent that they believe anything. Thus the points made apply to the Bank of England as well. So it too is more bothered about unemployment than inflation. It too will look through the recent inflation rise and will suggest interest-rate rises that are far enough away to be meaningless as right now we can only see a few months ahead.Actually the Bank of England has already played that card when Gertjan Vlieghe told us this at the end of last month.

In that scenario, the first rise in Bank Rate is likely to become appropriate only well into next year, with
some modest further tightening thereafter.

There is a curious link in that he will not have a vote then like Raphael Bostic. But the point is the same especially as we recall the period of Forward Guidance with all its promises of interest-rate rises when in fact the next move was a cut.

Inflation,Inflation,Inflation

This is an issue with several contexts. The simplest is that we are now above the inflation target and with the numbers from producer prices look set to remain there for at least a bit. Then there is the way that the numbers ignore the rises in house prices which are well above such levels.

UK average house prices increased by 8.9% over the year to April 2021, down from 9.9% in March 2021.

This was reinforced yesterday by a metric which the Bank of England regularly tells us it follows as the Markit PMI headline included this.

 but inflationary pressures also strengthen

It went on to ram the point home.

Also hitting previously unsurpassed levels, however, were rates of inflation of input costs and output prices as supply-chain disruption fuelled price pressures.

And later.

The rate of input cost inflation accelerated for the fifth month running and was the joint-fastest on record, equal with that seen in June 2008. While inflation continued to be led by the manufacturing sector, service providers also posted a marked increase in input prices. In turn, the rate of output price inflation hit a fresh record high for the second month running.

The Economy

The same survey told us it was pretty much full speed ahead.

Businesses are reporting an ongoing surge in demand in
June as the economy reopens, led by the hospitality sector,
meaning the second quarter looks to have seen economic
growth rebound very sharply from the first quarter’s decline.

I did my little bit by going out for some drinks and dinner, the first tome I has been out in that way for 7 months.

Comment

A picture like that would have conventional central bankers taking away the stimulus and maybe even raising interest-rates. According to Getjan Vlieghe that was all wrong.

First, given the proximity of the effective lower bound (even with the possibility of modestly negative rates),
tightening too early would be a much costlier mistake than tightening too late

A curious assertion considering we have seen interest-rates only reach 0.75% Next is a curiosity as central bankers keep chanfing their mind on this as I recall the ECB telling us that policy responses had slowed.

Second, monetary policy does, in fact, work quite quickly

Indeed he rather contradicts his prediction of future interest-rate rises.

That was apparent before we were hit by the Covid shock, when Bank Rate was just 0.75% and inflation pressures were too weak.

If 0.75% was too high then and things are worse now well you do the maths.

As you can see there are good reasons for the Bank of England to change course but I do not expect it too and today will be unchanged. It seems set to mimic the four stage plan described in Yes Minister.

Sir Richard Wharton“In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”

Sir Humphrey Appleby“Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”

Sir Richard Wharton“In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.”

Sir Humphrey Appleby“Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.”