Does money supply growth feed straight into house prices?

I thought that I would look at things today from a slightly different perspective or to quote the French man in The Matrix series we shall investigate some cause and effect. Let me give you the latest news on the effect.

In Q3 2020, the rise in prices of second-hand dwellings in France (excluding Mayotte) weakened: +0.5% compared to Q2 2020 (provisional seasonally adjusted results), after +1.4% in Q2 and +1.9% in Q1 2019.

Over a year, the rise in prices continued: +5.2%, after +5.6% and +4.9%. As observed since the end of 2016, this increase was more important for flats (+6.5% over the year) than for houses (+4.2%). ( Insee)

The reality of the situation arrives when you look at the overall pattern. We saw negative interest-rates introduced by the ECB in June 2014 and large-scale QE begin in March 2015. After several years of falling house prices we then saw French annual house price growth move into positive territory towards the end of 2015. Since then the rate of growth has tended to rise and is now above 5%. The ECB and Bank of France will of course be noting this down as Wealth Effects a plan which is aided and abetted by the Euro area measure of inflation which conveniently omits owner-occupied housing completely. Apparently the twenty odd years they have had to do something about this is not long enough or something like that.

If we bring this right up to date I am nit especially bothered by the decline in quarterly growth in house prices. After all the background environment is for house price falls and the monetary easing we are about to look at has prevented them so far. Or in an amusing irony we can quote the word “counterfactual” back at the central bankers.

Money Supply

The growth here remains stellar as we look at the measure most affected by all the easing.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 13.8% in October, unchanged from previous month.

This is a consequence of buying some 25.5 billion Euros of bonds under the original QE programme ( PSPP) and some 62 billion under the new emergency pandemic one or PEPP. Just to mark you cards looking ahead the latter seems to have accelerated recently from around 15 billion per week to around 20 billion in a possible harbinger of the ECB December decision.

This is a game the ECB has been playing since 2015 when it got M1 growth as high as 11.7% which was part of the push on house prices we looked at above. Annual growth had fallen to around 7% before the last act of Mario Draghi last autumn pushed it back above 8% and now the pandemic response pushed it into double-figures. There is another issue here which was described by Kate Bush.

Be running up that road
Be running up that hill
Be running up that building

The 13.8% growth in October is on a much larger amount. Indeed M1 passed 10 trillion Euros in size in October.

Broad Money

If we go wider in monetary terms we see a similar picture.

Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 10.5% in October 2020, after 10.4% in September 2020

The pattern here is different as the previous moves had struggled to get annual growth much above 5% and now well you can see for yourself.Something of a wall of broad money going somewhere but not into the real economy. As you might expect some of this is the tsunami of narrow money.

Looking at the components’ contributions to the annual growth rate of M3, the narrower aggregate M1 contributed 9.4 percentage points (as in the previous month), short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) contributed 0.4 percentage point (as in the previous month) and marketable instruments (M3-M2) contributed 0.7 percentage point (up from 0.6 percentage point).

The ECB will be pleased with the last component of marketable instruments on two counts. Firstly it can point to it as a response to its actions. Secondly growth in such markets will no doubt lead to a growth in sinecures for past central bankers.

Things then get more awkward because it was only the day before yesterday we noted a  savings ratio of 13.5% in Germany on the third quarter. Well from the numbers below it looks as though businesses are saving too and doing it via their bank accounts.

From the perspective of the holding sectors of deposits in M3, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households increased to 7.9% in October from 7.7% in September, while the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-financial corporations decreased to 20.5% in October from 21.1% in September. Finally, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-monetary financial corporations (excluding insurance corporations and pension funds) decreased to 7.3% in October from 8.2% in September.

It might be more accurate to say they have received money they cannot spend yet as we see a shift in monetary transmission. This is one of the clearest examples of what in economics is called excess money balances I have ever seen. Except right now neither supposed consequence of growth and inflation can happen much.

Credit

With the various support schemes in place it is hard to know what these numbers are really telling us. We do get a pointer to something we know is happening.

The annual growth rate of credit to general government increased to 20.3% in October from 18.9% in September, while the annual growth rate of credit to the private sector stood at 4.9% in October, unchanged from the previous month.

Credit is flowing to governments and some of it is being passed on.

Comment

We can now look more internationally and see examples of monetary policy affecting asset prices. The United States has given us two examples this week alone.

US home prices climbed the most on record in the third quarter as historically low mortgage rates drove outsized demand, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a Tuesday report.

Prices gained 3.1% from their prior-quarter levels, according to the report. The jump also places prices 7.8% higher than their year-ago levels. A seasonally adjusted monthly index of prices gained 1.7% in September. ( Business Insider)

And this.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 30000 for the first time on Tuesday, after a rally of more than 60% from its March lows. ( WSJ)

We can also look to Japan where this morning’s Nikkei 225 close at 26,537 compares with more like 8,000 when the Abenomics experiment began.

The catch is that in terms of money supply there are lots of leads and lags in the system. So we can see some things clearly such as the rise in French house price growth but in other areas the rain has not yet gone. For example the CAC-40 has surged in response to the monetary easing but like the UK FTSE 100 is well below past peaks. Of course another asset market which is French sovereign bonds has gone through the roof such that France is being paid to borrow ( ten-year yield -0.34%) in an example of a direct impact.

Switching to the real economy there will be greater lags right now as the Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns crunch economies regardless of monetary growth. But if you think about it that only raises the inflationary risks and it is not only the Euro area that puts a Nelsonian blind eye to likely developments.

“The government’s plan to replace RPI with CPIH is a clear case of using the wrong tool for the job…” Our CEO @stianwestlake on the news that the RPI will be aligned to the CPIH in 2030 ( Royal Statistical Society)

Happy Thanksgiving.

It is a sign of the times that Bitcoin is doing so well

The past week or two has seen quite a rally in the price of Bitcoin and as I type this it is US $16.700. This gives various perspectives and let me open with a bit of hype, or at least what I think is hype.

An independent report from Citi Bank’s Managing Director argues that Bitcoin is the digital gold of the 21st century. The devaluation of the worlds’ reserve currency—the U.S. dollar—formed the basis of the commentary. ( Crypto.Com)

As a starter Citibank have suggested that the US Dollar will fall or depreciate by 20% which has created something of a stir in itself. There are bears around for plenty of currencies tight now as others suggested that the expected December move by the ECB might put the skids under the Euro. Both roads would look bullish for Bitcoin as it is an alternative. The Citibank view starts with a comparison with Gold post Bretton Woods.

With a relatively free currency market, gold’s price grew enormously for the next 50 years.

The monetary inflation and devaluation of the greenback are the basis of Fitzpatricks’ comparison of Bitcoin with gold. ( Crypto.Com)

This is then linked to what we have seen with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin move happened in the aftermath of the Great Financial crisis (of 2008) which saw a new change in the monetary regime as we went to ZERO percent interest rates.

The next step is this.

Fitzpatrick pointed out that the first bull cycle in Bitcoin from 2011 to 2013 when it increased by 555 times resulted from this.
Currently, the COVID-19 crisis and the government’s associated monetary and fiscal response are creating a similar market environment as gold in the 1970s. Governments have made it clear that they will not shy away from unprecedented money printing until the GDP and employment numbers are back up.  ( Crypto.Com)

He then applies his technical analysis.

“You look at price action being much more symmetrical or so over the past seven years forming what looks like a very well defined channel giving us an up move of similar time frame to the last rally (in 2017).”

Which leads to this.

Fitzpatrick did not stop there; his price prediction chart sees Bitcoin price at $318,000 by December 2021.  ( Crypto.Com)

That in itself will no doubt be contributing to the present rise as it puts us in what is called FOMO or Fear Of Missing Out territory.

The Economics

The issue of the money supply and its growth is an issue of these times whereas the situation for Bitcoin is different.

Bitcoin’s total supply is limited by its software and will never exceed 21,000,000 coins. New coins are created during the process known as “mining”: as transactions are relayed across the network, they get picked up by miners and packaged into blocks, which are in turn protected by complex cryptographic calculations. ( coinmarketcap.com)

So there are two differences. Firstly there is a cap and with the present number in circulation being 18.5 million it is not that far away. Secondly whilst there is growth the process of creation is likely to be slower rather than fiat money which as I am about to discuss has been rather up,up and away.

If we start with the world’s reserve currency which is the US Dollar I note a reference to money printing in the Citibank report which we could argue is QE.

Consistent with this directive, the Desk plans to continue to increase SOMA holdings of Treasury securities by approximately $80 billion per month……Similarly, the Desk plans to continue to increase SOMA holdings of agency MBS by approximately $40 billion per month. ( New York Fed)

So we have US $120 billion a month from the main two efforts where bonds are swapped for electronically produced money.

My preferred way of looking at this is the money supply and if we do that we see that in the year to the 2nd of this month the narrow measure of the US money supply has risen by 41% over the past year. This sort of measure used to be called high powered money although right now due to the plunge in velocity it is anything but. However it has been created and I also note that having gone through US $2 trillion in August the amount of cash in circulation is also rising and was US $2.04 trillion in October. So mud in the eye for those predicting its death,especially as we note the switches to using electronic money in retail. As the Belle Stars put it.

This is the sign of the times
Piece of more to come

If we go to the wider money supply measure called M2 we see that it has grown by 23.9% in the year to November 2nd. That is quite something for a number that is now just shy of 19 trillion. So there is a money supply argument in the background. We can add to it by noting fast rises in other types of fiat money. Japan has been at the game for some time and we have seen notable expansions in Euros and UK Pounds as well.

Interest-rates

There was a time that the lack of an interest-rate from Bitcoin was a weakness. The 0% compared unfavourably to what you could get in fiat currencies. After all pre credit crunch many of the major currencies provided interest-rates of 4 to 5%. But now life is very different as we have seen the US Federal Reserve cut interest-rates to just above 0%. Indeed in some cases now Bitcoin has a relative advantage because the spread of not only negative official interest-rates but of negative bond yields ( which total around US $17 trillion now) makes it look much more attractive than before.

Who would have thought that a 0% interest-rate would be attractive? But increasingly that is true.

Comment

When we look at something like this we see that it requires a combination of reality and psychology/belief. The former gets reinforced because as I have pointed out over the past decade the direction of travel has been both clear and consistent. This morning has seen an example of part of this journey.

Italy’s Ruling 5-Star: ECB Should Cancel Covid-Related Debt It Owns – Party Blog Doing So Would Be “Not Only Fair But Easily Achievable” ( @LiveSquawk )

These sort of proposals appear and will no doubt be denied and rejected. But in a year or two’s time past history suggests it may well be on the agenda and then get implemented. It is quite a cynical game but we see it played regularly and feeds into our “To Infinity! And Beyond” theme.

Also there will be demand from those looking to park what are considered to be ill gotten gains. The official response will be around crime but it is probably more likely to be another version of this.

Many Turkish companies and individuals bought foreign currency last week even as the lira registered its biggest weekly gain in almost two decades, Bloomberg reported, citing currency traders it did not identify. ( Ahval )

Turks are using the Lira rally as a chance to buy more US Dollars in a clear safe haven trade. People will disagree about how safe that is but there will be similar flows into Bitcoin. It has its own risks as we note the issues around security and the wide swings in price. The latter are something of an irony because they are exacerbated by a strength which is the supply restrictions and limit. But this is a time of risk in so many areas.

Another way of looking at the change in perception of Bitcoin is the way that central banks are now looking at Digital Coins in a type of spoiler move as it poses a potential challenge to their monopoly over money.

I will be particularly interested in reader’s thoughts on this topic

 

 

The ECB has found itself pushing on a string

Our focus today shifts to the Euro area where to quote Todd Terry there is indeed “something going on”. We find that the European Central Bank can influence one area of the economy and here it is.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1,, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 13.8% in September from 13.2% in August.

For newer readers wondering if this is high then the answer is yes. The ECB did not reach such annual rates of growth in either of its two main pushes. So the slashing of interest-rates in response to the credit crunch and later the imposition of negative interest-rates and mainstream QE bond purchases did not reach this level of percentage expansion. The next context is that the narrow money supply is much larger now so in terms of Euros around ( on this measure) the push is a real shove.

If we look back we see that there has been a two-stage move with the initial one beginning on the 18th of September last year with the interest-rate cut to -0.5% and the restarting of QE bond purchases. It is hard not to have a wry smile at the thought that back then Mario Draghi was setting policy for his successor Christine Lagarde in a revealing summary of the competence of someone he knows well. Life has sure moved on in the meantime as she is now in a full blown crisis! This move raised M1 growth from 7% to 8% in broad terms. The turbocharger was applied in March and we have gone to three months in a row of growth over 13%. Let me give you an example of the turbocharger in action and remember these are just for last week.

ECB PSPP (EUR): +6.733B To 2.309T (Prev -1.883B To 2.303T) –

CSPP: +2.208B To 241.524B (Prev +2.137B To 239.316B) – CBPP: +722M To 287.426B (Prev -81M To 286.704B) – ABSPP: -206M To 29.173B (Prev +222M To 29.379B) – PEPP: +16.264B To 616.856B (Prev +15.858B To 600.592B)

Firstly apologies for the alphabetti spaghetti, I am sure the names sound grand when they make them up. The original QE programme is at the top and added nearly 7 billion Euros and the emergency one at the bottom added a bit over 16 billion. They also bought over 2 billion Euros of Corporate Bonds. But in total as the ECB supplied Euros in return for the bonds roughly 26 billion was added to the money supply in one week.

Velocity

I often get asked about this and the concept here is to attempt to measure what happens to the money supply. We cannot measure it directly so the proxy is usually our measure of economic output called Gross Domestic Product. The credit crunch era has seen plenty on monetary expansion but only weak GDP growth so velocity has been singing along with Alicia Keys.

I, I, I, I’m fallin’
I, I, I, I’m fallin’
Fall

This has in the past been described as being like pushing on a string.

If we now bring this up to date we see that Velocity has had a shocker with narrow money growth of a bit over 12% combined with GDP growth of nearly minus 12%. There will be quite a swing in the third quarter as we see quite a bounce back but looking ahead to this quarter things are getting worse again. I have previously suggested the Euro area may contract again this quarter and with the implementation of ever more restrictions in response to the Corona Virus pandemic the economic clouds are gathering. Yesterday brought more news on this front from a country which has had relative success in dealing with the pandemic.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is planning a nationwide “lockdown light” which could force the closure of bars, restaurants and public events, according to Bild newspaper.

Merkel is expected to push for the measure in a meeting with regional leaders on Wednesday where additional curbs are likely to be decided on. ( Euronews).

Belgium seems to be in a pretty awful mess and playing a new version of Catch-22.

Now 10 hospitals have requested that staff who have tested positive but do not have symptoms keep working.

The head of the Belgian Association of Medical Unions told the BBC they had no choice if they were to prevent the hospital system collapsing within days.

I never thought I would be analysing money velocity in this way but it will be another plunge if as looks likely now the economy shrinks again with M1 growth of the order of 13%.

Broad Money

The heat is on here too.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 10.4% in September 2020 from 9.5% in August, averaging 10.0% in the three months up to September.

As you are probably expecting much of the shove here came from the narrow money we have just looked at.

the narrower aggregate M1 contributed 9.4 percentage points (up from 9.0 percentage points in August), short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) contributed 0.4 percentage point (up from 0.1 percentage point) and marketable instruments (M3-M2) contributed 0.6 percentage point (up from 0.4 percentage point).

The ECB will be pleased to see a pick-up in the rate of growth of “marketable instruments” although in these times this could also be for reasons which are not good.We can apply a similar line of thinking to this perhaps.

From the perspective of the holding sectors of deposits in M3, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households increased to 7.8% in September from 7.5% in August.

In theory the ECB would welcome this but it is more of a residual item than a cause. What I mean bu that is that is that furlough type payments have been combined with an inability to spend in many areas leading to a rise in savings. We have seen that pretty much everywhere. So it is hardly a surprise to see bank deposits rising.as they are part of this.

Credit

This is is a lagging rather than leading indicator but there was a possible wind of change here.

the annual growth rate of credit to the private sector stood at 4.9% in September, compared with 5.0% in August.

Comment

If we look at what we would normally expect then the rise in narrow money growth should be impacting the economy towards the end of this year and into 2021. The problem is that the economic push is colliding with more Corona Virus restrictions. Just looking at the money supply suggests a bright economic run but in reality official forecasts are going to need their red pen.

If we look into the detail we see that much of the push is also related to government action.

The annual growth rate of credit to general government increased to 18.8% in September from 16.5% in August,

That is from the M3 series and we get another perspective into things we have already noted. Governments are spending heavily leading to deposits rising in one area and the ECB via QE financing much of it to prevent any drain on the money supply from the borrowing. We had got used to some of that but the difference now is the scale as we mull how much of an impact the ch-ch-changes have on the economic consequences of a money supply boost.You may like to look up Goodhart’s Law at this point.

Moving on there is another cloud in the sky because the traditional response of banks to a downturn seems to be in play.

Banks tightened their criteria for approving loans to enterprises and consumers as well as the terms and conditions on the credit they did approve, the survey showed. They expected further tightening in the fourth quarter. ( Reuters)

So for the ECB it is time to consider the advice provided by Bananarama.

It ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it
It ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it
It ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it
And that’s what gets results.

 

 

The Bank of England will be very worried about the weakness in consumer credit

This afternoon will see yet another bond buying operation from the Bank of England as another £1.473 billion is purchased. Tuesday is what I call heavy-duty QE ( Quantitative Easing) as it purchases longer dated maturities and indeed regularly buys what are called ultra longs as the maturities in the UK bond or Gilt market go out as far as 2071. That length of purchase is unusual as for example the ECB only purchases out to 30 years so 2050 at the moment. This adds to the £1.473 billion bought yesterday and it will be the same tomorrow as the week in this regard ends early.

I get asked regularly how they pay for this? In line with today’s theme the money is created by the Bank of England which then uses it to buy the bonds. Thus the money supply is increased and this week it will be increased by just over £4.4 billion from this route. In one sense this is a pure profit for the Bank of England and is what is called seigniorage except in the past it was the profit on issuing actual notes and coins whereas now it is electronic and thus costs very little.

There is a nice little earner for the Bank of England as it charges Bank Rate on this to the Special Purpose Vehicle set up to hold the bonds so ironically cutting it to 0.1% reduces its profit on this. You can see that the accounting method and I stress this is simply an accounting method did not think negative interest-rates were going to happen as they will be booking a loss in that eventuality!

So the money supply has been expanded via this route by £672 billion in total or in the recent phase £237 billion as of the end of last week. This goes into the narrow money supply which used to be called “high powered money”. I point that out because in the credit crunch era it has proved to be anything but that because as they have pumped up the money supply the usage of it it what is called Velocity has fallen. In fact Velocity has at times fallen faster than the money supply has risen but  central banks turn a Nelsonian blind eye to that reality. They are consistent in preferring theory to reality.

There will have been smaller influences on the money supply from the purchases of Corporate Bonds ( £19 billion) and the Covid Corporate Financing Faciity ( £16.4 billion). However not all the CCFF will count as an increase in the money supply as some of the commercial paper bought will already be counted.

Today’s Data

This will have caused angst at the Bank of England and you will quickly see why.

Overall, private sector companies and households reduced their holdings of money in August, following 5 months of unusually strong deposit flows. Sterling money (known as M4ex) fell by £0.9 billion in August, down from an increase of £25.6 billion in July.

The private sector made a net repayment of loans in August. Sterling net lending to private sector companies and households, or M4Lex, was -£3.9 billion, following a net repayment of £0.5 billion in July.

Yes that is a fall and may be the reason we have had more hints from the Bank of England about negative interest-rates. It found itself “pushing on a string” in August where it was pumping up the narrow measure of the money supply by around £20 billion or so, But we and by this I mean as individuals and businesses had less demand for money and in fact so much less demand that the total fell. Actually in terms of the specifics it was the financial sector other than banks which drove the fall as what were presumably pension funds and insurance companies wanted £6.1 billion less.

In fact monthly money supply numbers are very erratic so it is better to take July and August together where we see the money supply rose by £25 billion which is still less than the Bank of England narrow money push. Just to complete the set we have what looks like another fall in Velocity or as I prefer to put it a fall in money demand. This is a little awkward as for broad money we are discussing money demand when it is called money supply. A loan only exists when someone or thing asks for it and is approved.

Unsecured Credit

This will also have unsettled the Bank of England.

Net consumer credit borrowing remained positive in August at £0.3 billion. This was a little weaker than borrowing of £1.1 billion in July, which was in line with the average net flow in the 18 months to February 2020. These increases followed net repayments of £3.9 billion per month, on average, between March and June. The annual growth rate fell slightly to -3.9%, down from -3.7% in July: this was a new series low since it began in 1994.

I mean with borrowing of this sort so low how will the banks make a profit! More seriously there is a hint of consumers battening down the hatches from the repayment numbers.

Gross borrowing was £21.3 billion, up from £20.9 billion in July and compared to an average of £25.5 billion in the six months to February 2020. Repayments increased to £20.6 billion from £19.6 billion in July.

In terms of a breakdown in the borrowing it was pretty even this month but as you can see below the pandemic decline has essentially been a credit card thing.

Net borrowing on credit cards was £0.2 billion in August (down from £0.6 billion), while net borrowing of other forms of consumer credit was £0.1 billion, down from £0.5 billion in July. The annual growth rates both remained negative, at -10.4% and -0.9% respectively.

Mortgages

Whoever had the job of presenting the Bank of England morning meeting will have been wise to have started with these numbers today. After all the Governor may have a short attention span and may remember him or her favourably.

The mortgage market continued to show more signs of recovery in August. On net, households borrowed an additional £3.1 billion secured on their homes, following borrowing of £2.9 billion in July. Mortgage borrowing troughed at £0.5 billion in April, and is still a little below the average of £4.2 billion in the six months to February 2020.

A career enhancing vibe can be continued by emphasising this.

The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase continued increasing sharply in August, to 84,700 from 66,300 in July . This was the highest number of approvals since October 2007.

Whilst relegating the next bit to when a liveried bar(wo)man is refreshing the Governor’s coffee cup and thereby distracting him.

 but it only partially offsets weakness seen between March and June. In total, there have been 418,000 approvals in 2020, compared with 524,000 in the same period in 2019.

Comment

Today’s money supply data has highlighted a few issues. The opener is that official efforts to raise or reduce the money supply pretty much have to work on the narrow money supply ( we are in an even worse mess if they do not). However by the time we reach broad money other agents are involved such as us and companies and there central banks can find themselves pushing on a string. What they really want to influence is money demand and they will be cheered by the mortgage numbers but worried by the overall ones as well as the consumer or unsecured credit ones.

To make things (hopefully) clearer I have left out the government influence via selling Gilts for cash which depresses the money supply as well as spending more than it receives which expands it. One way of looking at the Bank of England action is offsetting much of the former which we normally look at in terms of keeping bond or Gilt yields low and in some cases negative.

Quite often the law of unintended consequences applies to looking at the money supply as we have 2 issues.

  1. The numbers if we pick out causative factors do not add up to what we think they should be.
  2. The leads and lags in the effect of any changes are quite variable.

The concept of unintended consequences will be on the mind of Governor Andrew Bailey today because when he was head of the FCA he acted to REDUCE overdraft rates and you will see why I have put that in capitals as you observe below what actually has been happening.

The ‘effective’ rate – the actual interest rate paid – on interest-charging overdrafts rose by 4.2 percentage points to 19.00% in August. This is the highest since the series began in 2016, and compares to a rate of 10.32% in March 2020 before new rules on overdraft pricing came into effect.

Also Silvana Tenreyro is not having a good day as we recall her claim that bank profitability is not affected by negative interest-rates. Tell that to HSBC which is selling a theoretically strong holding for a loss…

In another sign that corporate and retail banking perform well in a negative rate environment, Reuters report that HSBC is about to sell its French biz (formerly CCF) for the hefty price of -500M€. Yes, there is a “-” sign. The book value is +8443m€. (That’s a “+” sign) ( @jeuasommenulle )

Can the Bank of England pull UK house prices out of the bag again?

Whilst the UK was winding up for a long weekend the Governor of the Bank of England was speaking about his plans for QE ( Quantitative Easing) at the Jackson Hole conference. He said some pretty extraordinary stuff in a somewhat stuttering performance via videolink. Apparently it has been a triumph.

So what is our latest thinking on the effects of QE and how it works? Viewed from the depth of the Covid
crisis, QE worked effectively.

Although as he cannot measure it so we will have to take his word for it.

Measuring this effect precisely is of course hard, since we cannot easily identify what the counterfactual would have been in the absence of QE.

He seems to have forgotten the impact of the central bank foreign exchange liquidity swaps of the US Federal Reserve. By contrast we were on the pace back on the 16th of March.

But QE clearly acted to break a dangerous risk of transmission from severe market stress to the macro-economy, by avoiding a sharp tightening in financial conditions and thus an increase in effective interest rates.

The next bit was even odder and I have highlighted the especially significant part.

QE is normally thought to work through a number of channels: including signalling of future central bank
intentions and thus interest rates; so called ‘portfolio balance’ effects (i.e. by changing the composition of
assets held by the private sector); and improving impaired market liquidity.

As he has cut to what he argues is the “lower bound” for UK interest-rates how can he be signalling lower ones? After all that would take us to the negative interest-rates he denies any plans for.

Fantasy Time

Things then took something of an Alice In Wonderland turn. Before you read this next bit let me remind you that the Bank of England started QE back in 2009 and not one single £ has ever been repaid.

First, a balance sheet intervention aimed solely at market
functioning is likely to be more temporary, in terms of the duration of its need to be in place.

Also the previous plan if I credit it with being a plan was waiting for this.

and once the Bank Rate
had risen to around 1.5%, thus creating more headroom for the future use of Bank Rate both up and down.

Whilst it was none too bright ( as you force the price of the Gilts held down before selling them) it was never going to be used. This was clear from the way Nemat Shafik was put in charge of this as you would never give her that important a job. Even the Bank of England eventually had to face up to her competence and she left her role early to run the LSE. This meant that she was part of the “woman overboard” problem that so dogged the previous Governor Mark Carney.

The new plan for any QE unwind is below.

We need to work through what lessons this may have for the appropriate future path of central bank balance sheets, including the pace and timing of any future unwind of asset
purchases.

How very Cheshire Cat.

“Alice asked the Cheshire Cat, who was sitting in a tree, “What road do I take?”

The cat asked, “Where do you want to go?”

“I don’t know,” Alice answered.

“Then,” said the cat, “it really doesn’t matter, does it?”

The only real interest the Governor has here is in doing more QE and he faces a potential limit ( if we did not know that we learn it from his denial). So he thinks that one day he may unwind some QE so he can do even more later. For the moment the limit keeps moving higher as highlighted by the fact that the UK issued another £7.4 billion of new bonds or Gilts last week alone.

Today’s Monetary Data

Let me highlight this referring to the Governor’s speech. He tells us that QE has been successful.

The Covid crisis to date has demonstrated that QE and forward guidance around it have been effective in a
particular situation.

Meanwhile borrowers faced HIGHER and not LOWER interest-rates in July

The interest rate on new consumer credit borrowing increased 22 basis points to 4.64% in July, while rates on interest-charging overdrafts increased 1.6 percentage points to 14.84%.

This issue is one which is a nagging headache for Governor Bailey this is because he had the same effect in his previous role as head of the Financial Conduct Authority. It investigated unauthorised overdraft rates in such a way they have risen from a bit below 20% to 31.63% in July. Some have reported these have doubled so perhaps the data is being tortured here.There is a confession to this if you look hard enough.

Rates on interest-charging overdraft rose by 1.6 percentage points to 14.84% in July. Between April and June, overdraft rates have been revised up by around 5 percentage points due to changes in underlying data.

Oh and just as a reminder the FCA was supposed to be representing the borrowers and not the lenders.

QE

As the Governor trumpets his “to “go big” and “go fast” decisively” action we see a clear consequence below.

Private sector companies and households continued increasing deposits with banks at a fast pace in July. Sterling money (known as M4ex) rose by £26.3 billion in July, more than in June (£16.8 billion), but less than average monthly increase of £53.4 billion between March and May. The increase in July is strong relative to the £9.4 billion average of the six months to February 2020.

This means that annual broad money growth ( M4) is at a record of 12.4%. Care is needed as I can recall a previous measure ( £M3) so the history is shorter than you might think. But there has been a concerted effort by the Bank of England to sing along with Andrea True Connection.

(More, more, more) How do you like it? How do you like it?
(More, more, more) How do you like it? How do you like it?
(More, more, more) How do you like it? How do you like it?

Or perhaps Britney Spears.

Gimme, gimme more
Gimme more
Gimme, gimme more
Gimme, gimme more
Gimme more

Consumer Credit

The sighs of relief out of the Bank of England were audible when this was released.

Net consumer credit borrowing was positive in July, following four months of net repayments (Chart 2). An additional £1.2 billion of consumer credit was borrowed in July, around the average of £1.1 billion per month in the 18 months to February 2020.

Although there is still this to send a chill down its spine.

 Net repayments totaled £15.9 billion between March and June. That recent weakness meant the annual growth rate remained negative at -3.6%, similar to June and it remains the weakest since the series began in 1994.

Comment

Quite a few of my themes have been in play today. For example QE looks ever more like a “To Infinity! And Beyond!” play. Governor Bailey confirms this by repeating the plan for interest-rates. They were only ever raised ( and by a mere 0.25% net in reality) so they could cut them later. So QE will only ever be reduced ( so far net progress is £0) so that they can do more later. He does not mention it but any official interest-rate increase looks way in the distance although as we have noticed the real world does see them. That was my first ever theme on here.

Next let me address the money supply growth. The theory is that it will in around 2 years time boost nominal GDP by the same amount. We therefore will see both inflation and growth. That works in broad terms but we have learnt in the past that the growth/inflation split is unknown as are the lags. Also of course which GDP level do we start from? I can see PhD’s at the Bank of England sniffing the chance to produce career enhancing research but for the rest of us we can merely say we expect inflation but much of it may end up here.

House prices at the end of the year are expected to be 2% to 3% higher than at the start.

The annual rate of UK house price growth slowed to 2.5% in July, from 2.7% in June. ( Zoopla )

I find that a little mind boggling but unlike central banking research we look at reality on here.

Finally let me cover something omitted by the Governor and many other places. This is the strength of the UK Pound £ which has risen above US $1.34. Whilst US Dollar weakness is a factor it is also now above 142 Yen ( and the Yen has been strong itself). I would place a quote from the media if I could find any. In trade-weighted terms from the nadir just below 73 as the crisis hit it will be around 79 at these levels. Or if you prefer the equivalent according to the old Bank of England rule of thumb is a 1.5% rise in Bank Rate. Perhaps nobody has told the Governor about this…..

Podcast

 

 

How do the negative interest-rates of the ECB fit with a surging money supply?

Today brings an opportunity for us to combine the latest analysis from the European Central Bank with this morning’s money supply and credit data. The speech is from Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel who is apparently not much of a fan of Denmark or Sweden.

In June 2014, the ECB was the first major central bank to lower one of its key interest rates into negative territory.

Of course the effect of the Euro was a major factor in those countries feeling the need for negativity but our Isabel is not someone who would admit something like that. We do however get a confession that the ECB did not know what the consequences would be.

As experience with negative interest rates was scant, the ECB proceeded cautiously over time, lowering the deposit facility rate (DFR) in small increments of 10 basis points, until it reached -0.5% in September 2019. While negative interest rates have, over time, become a standard instrument in the ECB’s toolkit, they remain controversial, both in central banking circles and academia.

Unfortuately for Isabel she has been much more revealing here than she intended. In addition to admitting it was new territory there is a confession the Euro area economy has been weak as otherwise why did they feel the need to keep cutting the official interest-rate? Then the “standard instrument” bit is a confession that they are here to stay.

In spite of the problems she has just confessed to Isabel thinks she can get away with this.

In my remarks today, I will review the ECB’s experience with its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). I will argue that the transmission of negative rates has worked smoothly and that, in combination with other policy measures, they have been effective in stimulating the economy and raising inflation.

Even before the Covid-19 pandemic that was simply untrue. You do not have to take me word for it because below is the policy announcement from the ECB on the 12th of September last year. They did not so that because things were going well did they?

The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.50%…….Net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November.

The accompanying statement included a complete contradiction of what Isabel is trying to claim now.

Today’s decisions were taken in response to the continued shortfall of inflation with respect to our aim. In fact, incoming information since the last Governing Council meeting indicates a more protracted weakness of the euro area economy, the persistence of prominent downside risks and muted inflationary pressures.

I wonder if anyone challenged Isabel on this?

Fantasy Time

Some would argue that this represents a policy failure but not our Isabel.

In other words, the ECB had succeeded in shifting the perceived lower bound on interest rates firmly into negative territory, supported by forward guidance that left the door open for the possibility of further rate cuts.

It is no great surprise that for Isabel it is all about “The Precious! The Precious!”

The ECB, for its part, tailored its non-standard measures to the structure of the euro area economy, where banks play a significant role in credit intermediation. In essence, this meant providing ample liquidity for a much longer period than under the ECB’s standard operations.

Yet even this has turned out to be something of a fantasy.

In spite of these positive effects on the effectiveness of monetary policy, the NIRP has often been criticised for its potential side effects, particularly on the banking sector……..In the extreme, the effect could be such that banks charge higher interest rates on their lending activities, thereby reversing the intended accommodative effect of monetary policy.

The text books which Professor Schabel has read and written contained nothing like this. We all know that if something is not in an Ivory Tower text book it cannot happen right?

Money Supply

This morning’s data showed a consequence of the Philosophy described above.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 13.5% in July from 12.6% in June.

This is the fastest rate of monetary expansion the Euro area has seen in absolute terms. There was a faster rate of expansion in percentage terms in its first month ( January 1999) of 14.7% but the numbers are so much larger now. Also contrary to so much official and media rhetoric cash is in demand as in July it totalled some 1.31 trillion Euros as opposed to 1.19 trillion a year before. This is out of the 9.78 trillion Euros.

As we try to analyse this there is the issue that it is simple with cash as 0% is attractive compared to -0.5% but then deposits should be fading due to the charge on them. Except we know that the major part of deposits do not have negative interest-rates because the banks are terrified of the potential consequences.

We can now switch to broad money and we are already expecting a rise due to the narrow money data.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 10.2% in July 2020 from 9.2% in June, averaging 9.5% in the three months up to July.

Below is the break down.

 

The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 13.5% in July from 12.6% in June. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) increased to 1.4% in July from 0.8% in June. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) increased to 12.8% in July from 9.2% in June.

Putting it that way is somewhat misleading because the M1 change of 158 billion dwarfs the 33 billion of marketable instruments although the growth rates are not far apart.

 

Comment

Let me now put this into context in ordinary times we would expect the narrow money or M1 surge to start impacting about six months ahead. So it should begin towards the end of this year. Although it will be especially hard to interpret as some of the slow down was voluntary as in we chose to shut parts of the economy down. Has monetary policy ever responded to a voluntary slow down in this way before?

Also if we switch to broad money we see that the push has seen M3 pass the 14 trillion Euros barrier. Again in ordinary times we should see nominal GDP surge in response to that in around 2 years with the debate being the split between inflation and real growth. Except of course we do not know where either are right now! We have some clues via the surges in bond and equity markets seen but of course the Ivory Tpwers that Professor Schabel represents come equipped with blacked out windows for those areas.

Actually the good Professor and I can at least partly agree on something as I spotted this in her speech.

With the start of negative rates, we have observed a steady increase in the growth rate of loans extended by euro area monetary financial institutions.

They did although that does not mean the policies she supported caused this and in fact the growth rate of loans to the private-sector is now falling.

She somehow seems to have missed the numbers which further support my theme that her role is to make sure government borrowing is cheap ( in fact sometimes free or even for a profit) is in play.

The annual growth rate of credit to general government increased to 15.5% in July from 13.6% in June,

We now wait to see if the famous quote from Milton Friedman which is doing the rounds will be right one more time.

Inflation is just like alcoholism, in both cases when you start drinking or when you start printing to much money, the good effects come first the bad effects come later.

Or Neil Diamond.

Money talks
But it can’t sing and dance and it can’t walk

 

 

Money Supply Madness in the Euro area

This morning has brought a consequence of the actions of the European Central Bank into focus. In response to the Covid-19 pandemic it found itself out of interest-rate ammunition having already cut interest-rates to -0.6%. Or rather interest-rate ammunition for businesses and consumers as of course it has set a record low of -1% for The Precious! The Precious! So it found itself only able to employ more unconventional measures such as Quantitative Easing ( QE) and credit easing ( TLTROs). Of course it was already indulging in some QE which is looking ever more permanent along the lines such about by Joe Walsh.

I go to parties sometimes until four
It’s hard to leave when you can’t find the door

Money Supply

We have been observing the consequences of the above in this area for some months now. Today is no different.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1,, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 12.6% in June, compared with 12.5% in May.

If we look back we see that it was 7.2% a year ago and then the extra monetary easing of the autumn of 2019 saw it rally to around 8%. So the new measures have pretty quickly had an impact. That has not always been true as regular readers will know. Also whilst we have seen an annual rate of 13.1% in the past ( late 2009 when the credit crunch hit) the money supply is much larger now. Mostly of course due to all the official effort pushing it up!

In terms of totals M1 pushed past the 9.7 trillion Euros barrier in June and also cash in circulation pushed past 1.3 trillion. Cash is not growing as fast as the rest but in other terms an annual growth rate of 9.7% would be considered fast especially as it has been out of favour as a medium of exchange for obvious possible infection reasons. More woe for the media reporting of it.

Broad Money

As you can see this is on the surge too.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 9.2% in June 2020 from 8.9% in May, averaging 8.8% in the three months up to June. The components of M3, showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 12.6% in June, compared with 12.5% in May. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) stood at 0.7% in June, unchanged from the previous month. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) increased to 10.1% in June from 5.7% in May.

The relative move has been even stronger here as the annual rate of growth on a year before has doubled from 4.6%. In more recent terms it has risen from around 5.5% if we ignore the odd print at the end of 2019. As to the breakdown much of the growth (8.5%) is M1 and it is noticeable that M2 seems very out  of fashion these days. I guess with interest-rates so low why have your money deposited for longer terms? But M3 growth has picked up noticeably.  We should not be surprised as that is one of the main targets of ECB policy both implicitly via corporate bond purchases and explicitly such as the purchase of commercial paper.

So we have more overnight deposits backed up by more cash and more money market fund shares. There was also a noticeable slowing in June to 95 billion Euros as the growth rate ( Taking us to 13.89 trillion)

There is another way of looking at this and as usual let me remind you not to take these numbers too literally. That went horribly wrong in my home country back in the day.

the annual growth rate of M3 in June 2020 can be broken down as follows: credit to the private sector contributed 5.1 percentage points (down from 5.3 percentage points in May), credit to general government contributed 5.0 percentage points (up from 3.6 percentage points), net external assets contributed 1.0 percentage point (as in the previous month), longer-term financial liabilities contributed 0.3 percentage point (up from 0.0 percentage point), and the remaining counterparts of M3 contributed -2.0 percentage points (down from -0.9 percentage point).

It was only a few days ago I pointed out that the main role of the ECB these days seems to have become to make sure the Euro area government’s can fund themselves cheaply.

Credit

I consider this to usually be a lagging indicator but there are some points of note and the credit to governments leaps off the page I think.

 The annual growth rate of credit to general government increased to 13.6% in June from 9.8% in May, while the annual growth rate of credit to the private sector stood at 4.8% in June, compared with 4.9% in May.

Credit to government was -2% as recently as February so the pedal has been pushed to the metal.

The ECB will be troubled by the latter part of the numbers below.

The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to the private sector (i.e. adjusted for loan sales, securitisation and notional cash pooling) decreased to 4.8% in June from 5.3% in May. Among the borrowing sectors, the annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 3.0% in June, unchanged from the previous month, while the annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations decreased to 7.1% in June from 7.3% in May.

Private-sector credit declined noticeably in the circumstances when adjusted but that seems to go missing in the detail. So let me help out.

New bank loans to euro area corporates slowed to €9bn in June, following a massive increase of €245bn over the previous three months. ( @fwred)

Putting it another way credit growth fell to 178 billion Euros in June of which 153 billion went to governments.

Comment

The response of the ECB to the Covid-19 pandemic has been to sing along with MARRS.

Brothers and sisters!
Pump up the volume
Pump that beat
Brothers and sisters!
Pump up the volume
We gonna get ya!

But just like their other moves of applying large interest-rate cuts and then negative bond yields it does not seem to be working. Back in the day I was taught this as “pushing on a string”. As a concept it is clear but in the intervening decades the monetary system has changed enormously. Personally I think the concepts of money and credit have merged in certain areas such as people paying for things with their phone. Another is the use of credit cards.

Putting it another way the economic impact is money supply multiplied by velocity with the catch being we do not know what velocity is. We can have a stab at what it was but right now we neither know what it is nor what it will be. So we know it has fallen over time undermining the central bank efforts making it push on a string but we can only say that looks like it is happening all over again, we cannot measure it with any precision.

Thus a likely consequence from this is inflation. We can see this in two ways. The official denials combined with increasingly desperate efforts to miss measure inflation. Or as the news overnight has highlighted and my subject of a few days ago, another high for the price of Gold.

Let me offer an olive branch to economics 101. How is the Euro rallying ( 1.17 versus the US Dollar). Well the US Money Supply is growing even faster.

Podcast

Negative Interest-Rates cannot stop negative household credit growth in the UK

This morning has opened with something which feels like it is becoming a regular feature. This is the advent of negative bond yields in the UK as we become one of those countries where many said it could not happen here and well I am sure you have guessed it! The two-year bond or Gilt yield is -0.07% and the five-year is -0.03%. As well as the general significance there are particular ones. For example I use the five-year bond yield as a signal for the direction of travel for mortgage rates especially fixed-rate ones. If we look at Moneyfacts we see this.

Lloyds Bank had the lowest rate in the five year remortgage chart for those looking for a 60% LTV. Its deal offers 1.35% (2.8% APRC) fixed until 31 August 2025, which then reverts to 3.59% variable. It charges £999 in product fees and comes with the incentives of free valuation, no legal fees and £200 cashback.

A 1.35% mortgage rate for five-years is extraordinarily low for the UK and reminds me I was assured they would not go below 2%. I am sure some of you are more expert than me in deciding whether what is effectively a £799 fee is good value for free legal fees and valuation?
If we switch to the two-year yield it is particularly significant as it is an implicit effect of all the Bank of England bond or Gilt buying because it does not buy bonds which have less than three years to go. So it is a knock-on effect rather than a direct result.

QE

The total of conventional QE undertaken by the Bank of England is £616.3 billion as of the end of last week. The rate of purchases was £13.5 billion which is relevant for the May money supply numbers we will be looking at today. Looking ahead to June there has been a reduction in weekly purchases to £6.9 billion so a near halving. So as you can see there has been quite a push provided to the money supply figures. It is now slower but would previously have been considered strong itself.

Also the buying of corporate bonds which now is just below £16 billion has added to the money supply and I have something to add to this element.

NEW: The Fed has posted the 794 companies whose bonds it began purchasing earlier this month as part of its “broad market index” Six companies were 10% of the index: Toyota, Volkswagen, Daimler, AT&T, Apple and Verizon  ( @NickTimiraos )

You may recall that the Bank of England is also buying Apple corporate bonds and I pointed out it will be competing with the US Federal Reserve to support what is on some counts the richest company in the world. Make of that what you will……

Engage Reverse Gear

This morning we have been updated on how much the UK plans to borrow.

To facilitate the government’s financing needs in the period until the end of August 2020, the UK Debt Management Office (DMO) is announcing that it is planning to raise a
minimum of £275 billion overall in the period April to August 2020.

Each sale reduces the money supply and I can recall a time when this was explicit policy and it was called Overfunding. Right now it would be a sub category of QT or Quantitative Tightening, should that ever happen.

Money Supply

We see that in a similar pattern to what we noted in the Euro area on Friday there is plenty being produced.

The amount of additional money deposited in banks and building societies by private sector companies and households rose strongly again in May (Chart 1). These additional sterling deposit ‘flows’ by households, private non-financial businesses (PNFCs) and financial businesses (NIOFCs), known as M4ex, rose by £52.0 billion in May. This followed large increases in March and April, of £67.3 billion and £37.8 billion respectively. The increase was driven by households and PNFCs, and continued to be strong relative to recent history: in the six months to February 2020, the average monthly increase was £9.3 billion.

The use of PNFCs is to try to take out the impact of money flows within the financial sector. Returning to the numbers we are seeing the consequences of the interest-rate cuts and the flip side ( the bonds are bought with newly produced money/liquidity) of the Bank of England QE I looked at earlier.

Last time around I pointed out we had seen 5% growth in short order and the pedal has continued to be pressed to the metal with a growth rate of 6.7% over the past three months. Or monthly growth rates which are higher than the annual one in May last year. All this has produced an annual growth rate of 11.3%.

Household Credit

This cratered again or to be more specific consumer credit.

Households repaid more loans from banks than they took out. A £4.6 billion net repayment of consumer credit more than offset a small increase in mortgage borrowing. Approvals for mortgages for house purchase fell further in May to 9,300.

I would not want to be the official at the Bank of England morning meeting who presented those numbers to the Governor. A period in a cake trolley free basement awaits. Indeed they may be grateful it does not have any salt mines when they got to this bit.

The extremely weak net flows of consumer credit meant that the annual growth rate was -3.0%, the weakest since the series began in 1994. Within this, the annual growth rate of credit card lending was negative for the third month running, falling to -10.7%, compared with 3.5% in February. Growth in other loans and advances remained positive, at 0.7%. But this was also weak relative to the recent past: in February, the growth rate was 6.8%.

Regular readers will recall when the Bank of England called an annual growth rate of 8.2% “weak” so I guess they will be echoing Ariane Grande.

I have no words

It seems like the air of desperation has impacted the banks too.

Effective rates on new personal loans to individuals fell 34 basis points to 5.10% in May. This was the lowest since the series began in 2016, and compares to a rate of around 7% at the start of 2020.

Mortgages

A small flicker.

On net, households borrowed an additional £1.2 billion secured on their homes. This was slightly higher than the £0.0 billion in April but weak compared to an average of £4.1 billion in the six months to February 2020. The increase on the month reflected more new borrowing by households, rather than lower repayments.

Looking ahead the picture was even worse.

The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to a new series low in May, of 9,300 (Chart 5). This was, almost 90% below the February level (Chart 5) and around a third of their trough during the financial crisis in 2008.

We wait to see if the advent of lower mortgage rates and the re-opening of the economy will help here.

Comment

I am sure that many reading about the UK money supply surge will be singing along with The Beatles.

You never give me your money
You only give me your funny paper
And in the middle of negotiations
You break down

Some will go further.

Out of college, money spent
See no future, pay no rent
All the money’s gone, nowhere to go
Any jobber got the sack
Monday morning, turning back
Yellow lorry slow, nowhere to go

Do I spot a QE reference?

But oh, that magic feeling, nowhere to go
Oh, that magic feeling
Nowhere to go, nowhere to go

There will have been some sunshine at the Bank of England morning meeting.

Small and medium sized businesses drew down an extra £18.2 billion in loans from banks, on net, as their new borrowing increased sharply. Before May, the largest amount of net borrowing by SMEs was £589 million, in September 2016. The strong flow in May led to a sharp increase in the annual growth rate, to 11.8%.

Of course it was nothing to do with them but that seldom bothers a central bankers these days. This next bit might need hiding in the smallest print they can find though.

Podcast

 

The ECB is creating Euros even faster than Wirecard can lose them

The focus shifts today to the Euro area as there has been action on a number of fronts. Firstly the world’s second most notable orange person has been speaking at the online Northern Lights Summit. The Orangina Christine Lagarde seems to have upset the folk at ForexLive already.

Lagarde reaffirms that government debt will eventually have to be repaid

No. Just no. Governments will never run surpluses just with a snap of a finger and what is happening to the world and their debt levels now is basically what we have seen with Japan over the past two decades.

Actually before the pandemic Germany was running surpluses but the majority were not. We also got some classic Christine Lagarde as she waffled.

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The euro zone is “probably past” the worst of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Friday, while urging authorities to prepare for a possible second wave.

“We probably are past the lowest point and I say that with some trepidation because of course there could be a severe second wave,” Lagarde told an online event.

At least she is not declaring success as Greeks and Argentinians have learnt to be terrified of what happens next after painful experience.

Also there has been this.

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – It is better for the European Central Bank to be safe than sorry when it decides whether to withdraw aggressive stimulus measures deployed to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said on Friday.

“It’s better to be safe than sorry,” Rehn said. “Recall the premature rate hikes of 2011 during the euro crisis.”

This is a classic strategy where a policymaker suggests things may be reduced (yesterday) and today we have the good cop part of this simple Good Cop,Bad Cop pantomime.

Money Supply

Back on the 29th of May I pointed out that the blue touch paper had been lit on the  money supply boom of 2020. Well the rocket is lifting off.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 12.5% in May from 11.9% in April.

That compares with the recent nadir of an annual rate of 6.2% in January of 2019. Another comparison is that the rate of annual growth was around 8% before the latest phase of monetary action such as the extra Quantitative Easing of the PEPP. The weekly reporting does not exactly match a month but we saw an extra 116 billion Euros in May from it.

You will not be surprised to learn that the surge above pushed broad money growth higher as well.

Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3, increased to 8.9% in May 2020 from 8.2% in April (revised from 8.3%).

Indeed it is mostly a narrow money thing.

Looking at the components’ contributions to the annual growth rate of M3, the narrower aggregate M1 contributed 8.4 percentage points (up from 8.0 percentage points in April), short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) contributed 0.2 percentage point (up from -0.1 percentage point) and marketable instruments (M3-M2) contributed 0.3 percentage point (as in the previous month).

The pattern here is not quite the same as whilst the January 2019 reading at 3.8% was low the nadir is 3.5% in August of 2018. That provides some food for thought because if you apply the expected response to this the Euro area economy should have been slowing further about now. Of course the pandemic has created such a fog we cannot see one way or another about whether that held true.

There is another way of analysing this and here is a balance sheet style view.

credit to the private sector contributed 5.3 percentage points (up from 4.8 percentage points in April), credit to general government contributed 3.6 percentage points (up from 2.3 percentage points), net external assets contributed 1.0 percentage point (down from 1.4 percentage points), longer-term financial liabilities contributed 0.0 percentage point (as in the previous month), and the remaining counterparts of M3 contributed -0.9 percentage point (down from -0.3 percentage point).

I counsel caution about reading too much into this as back in the day such analysis when spectacularly wrong in the UK. Accounting identities are all very well but they miss the human component as well as some of the actual numbers. But we see growth from the government sector and the private-sector here. Also the external component has faded a bit in relative terms which provides a counterpoint to another piece of news.

Grandstanding?

From yesterday when all our troubles apparently not so far away.

Eurosystem repo facility for central banks (EUREP) introduced as precautionary backstop to address pandemic-related euro liquidity needs outside euro area….EUREP to allow broad set of central banks to borrow euro against euro-denominated debt issued by euro area central governments and supranational institutions….New facility to be available until June 2021.

These things are invariably badged as temporary but last time I checked the “temporary” income tax in the UK to pay for the Napoleonic War is still here. But as to what good it might do in a world where nobody seems to actually want Euros in this manner I am not sure. Perhaps it is a protection against another outbreak of the “Carry Trade” as this bit hints.

The provision of euro liquidity to non-euro area central banks aims at alleviating euro liquidity needs in the respective countries in a stressed market environment. The
potential beneficiaries are banks that need euro funding and are not able to obtain such funding in the market or get it only at prohibitive prices.

Although there is no real link at all to this.

Overall, these arrangements aim to facilitate a smooth transmission of monetary policy in the euro
area to the benefit of all euro area citizens

Let me help out bu suggesting replacing “all euro area citizens” with “The Precious! The Precious!”.

Here is what is presumably the official view from former ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio. You may recall that Vitor’s job was to respond with technical questions at the ECB presser with a long involved answer that would send everyone to sleep. But at least he had a role unlike his replacement.

The ECB, reflecting awareness about the international role of the euro, just announced a new repo facility for other central banks to get euros against collateral.The FED dit it recently ..In general, the EU is finally aware of its geo-political interests.

The Fed saw demand of over US $400 billion at the peak whereas I suspect the Euro interest may be more like 0. Maybe someone will request a million or two as a test?

Comment

The relevance of the money supply changes is as follows. Narrow money supply impacts in the next 6 months and broad money in around two years. So assuming there is no Covid-19 second wave the push will impact as economies are picking up anyway. That is awkward as there is a clear inflation danger from this. There are signs of it already as we see the oil price pick up which even the neutered official inflation numbers will record. They of course miss the bit described by Abba.

Money, money, money
Must be funny
In the rich man’s world
Money, money, money
Always sunny
In the rich man’s world

Although we do see evidence of a type of money destruction.

Germany’s Wirecard collapsed on Thursday owing creditors almost $4 billion. ( Reuters )

The regulators are now on the case but.

All the money’s gone, nowhere to go ( The Beatles )

Where will all the extra US Money Supply end up?

Today brings both the US economy and monetary policy centre stage. The OECD has already weighed in on the subject this morning.

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought the longest economic expansion on record to a juddering halt. GDP
contracted by 5% in the first quarter at an annualised rate, and the unemployment rate has risen
precipitously. If there is another virus outbreak later in the year, GDP is expected to fall by over 8% in 2020
(the double-hit scenario). If, on the other hand, the virus outbreak subsides by the summer and further
lockdowns are avoided (the single-hit scenario), the impact on annual growth is estimated to be a percentage
point less.

Actually that is less than its view of many other countries. But of course we need to remind ourselves that the OECD is not a particularly good forecaster. Also we find that the official data has its quirks.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate
declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today……In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment
in government continued to decline sharply……….The unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent in May, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 2.1 million to 21.0 million.

Those figures not only completely wrong footed the forecasters they nutmegged them as well in one of the most spectacular examples of this genre I have seen. I forget now if they were expecting a rise in unemployment of eight or nine million but either way you get the gist. We do not know where we are let alone where we are going although the Bureau of Labor Statistics did try to add some clarity.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other  reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had
been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate  would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally  adjusted basis).

We learn more about the state of play from the New York Federal Reserve.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -25.5% for 2020:Q2 and -12.0% for 2020:Q3. News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2020:Q2 by 10 percentage points and increased the nowcast for 2020:Q3 by 24.5 percentage points. Positive surprises from labor, survey, and international trade data drove most of the increase.

As you can see the labo(u)r market data blew their forecasts like a gale and leave us essentially with the view that there has been a large contraction but also a wide possible and indeed probable error range.

The Inflation Problem

We get the latest inflation data later after I publish this piece. But there is a problem with the mantra we are being told which is that there is no inflation. Something similar to the April reading of 0.3% is expected. So if we switch to the measure used by the US Federal Reserve which is based on Personal Consumption Expenditures the annual rate if we use our rule of thumb would in fact be slightly negative right now. On this basis Chair Powell and much of the media can say that all the monetary easing is justified.

But there are more than a few catches which change the picture. Let me start with the issues I raised concerning the Euro area yesterday where the numbers will be pushed downwards by a combination of the weights being (very) wrong, many prices being unavailable and the switch to online prices. It would seem that the ordinary person has been figuring this out for themselves.

The May 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows small signs of improvement in households’ expectations compared to April. Median inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point at the one-year horizon to 3.0 percent, and were unchanged at the three-year horizon at 2.6 percent. ( NY Fed Research from Monday)

It is revealing that they describe an increase in inflation that is already above target as an “improvement” is it not? But we see a complete shift as we leave the Ivory Towers and media palaces as the ordinary person surveyed expects a very different picture. Still the Ivory Towers can take some solace from the fact that inflation is in what they consider to be non-core areas.

Expected year-ahead changes in both food and gasoline prices displayed sharp increases for the second consecutive month and recorded series’ highs in May at 8.7% and 7.8%, respectively, in May.

Just for the avoidance of doubt I have turned my Irony meter beyond even the “turn up to 11” of the film Spinal Tap.

Central bankers will derive some cheer from the apparent improvement in perceptions about the housing market.

Median home price change expectations recovered slightly from its series’ low of 0% reached in April to 0.6% in May. The slight increase was driven by respondents who live in the West and Northeast Census regions.

Credit

More food for thought is provided in this area. If we switch to US Federal Reserve policy Chair Jerome Powell will tell us later that the taps are open and credit is flowing. But those surveyed have different ideas it would seem.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated for the third consecutive month, with 49.6% of respondents reporting credit to be harder to get today than a year ago (versus 32.1% in March and 48.0% in April). Expectations for year-ahead credit availability also worsened, with fewer respondents expecting credit will become easier to obtain.

Comment

I now want to shift to a subject which is not getting the attention it deserves. This is the growth in the money supply where the three monthly average for the narrow measure M1 has increased in annualised terms by 67.2% in the three months to the 25th of May. Putting that another way it has gone from a bit over US $4 trillion to over US $5 trillion over the past 3 months. That gives the monetary system quite a short-term shove the size of which we can put into context with this.

In April 2008, M1 was approximately $1.4 trillion, more than half of which consisted of currency.  ( NY Fed)

Contrary to what we keep being told about the decline of cash it has grown quite a bit over this period as there is presently a bit over US $1.8 trillion in circulation.

Moving to the wider measure M2 we see a similar picture where the most recent three months measured grew by 40.6% compared to its predecessor in annualised terms. Or if you prefer it has risen from US $15.6 billion to US $18.1 billion. Again here is the historical perspective from April 2008.

 M2 was approximately $7.7 trillion and largely consisted of savings deposits.

So here is a question for readers, where do you think all this money will go? Whilst you do so you might like to note this from the 2008 report I have quoted.

While as much as two-thirds of U.S. currency in circulation may be held outside the United States….

The Investing Channel