What policy action can we expect from the Bank of England?

As to world faces up to the economic effects of the Corona Virus pandemic there is a lot to think about for the Bank of England. Yesterday it put out an emergency statement in an attempt to calm markets and today it will already have noted that other central banks have pulled the interest-rate trigger.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 per cent. The Board took this decision to support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak. ( Reserve Bank of Australia).

There are various perspectives on this of which the first is that it has been quite some time since the official interest-rate that has been lower than in the UK. Next comes the fact that the RBA has been cutting interest-rates on something of a tear as there were 3 others last year. As we see so often, the attempt at a pause or delay did not last long, and we end up with yet another record low for interest-rates. Indeed the monetary policy pedal is being pressed ever closer to the metal.

Long-term government bond yields have fallen to record lows in many countries, including Australia. The Australian dollar has also depreciated further recently and is at its lowest level for many years.

Also in the queue was a neighbour of Australia.

At its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia decided to reduce the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent. The ceiling and floor rates of the corridor of the OPR are correspondingly reduced to 2.75 percent and 2.25 percent, respectively.

So there were two interest-rate cuts overnight meaning that there have now been 744 in the credit crunch era and I have to add so far as we could see more later today. The problem of course is that in the current situation the words of Newt in the film Aliens come to mind.

It wont make any difference

It seems that those two central banks were unwilling to wait for the G7 statement later and frankly looking at it I can see why.

– G7 Now Drafting Statement On Coronavirus Response For Finance Leaders To Issue Tuesday Or Wednesday – Statement As Of Now Does Not Include Specific Language Calling For Fresh Fiscal Spending Or Coordinated Interest Rate Cuts By Central Banks – RTRS Citing G7 Source ( @LiveSquawk )

The truth is G7 are no doubt flying a cut to see how little they can get away with as monetary ammunition is low and fiscal policy takes quite some time to work. A point many seem to have forgotten in the melee.

The UK Economy

The irony of the present situation is that the UK economy was recovering before this phase.

Manufacturing output increased at the fastest pace since
April 2019, as growth strengthened in both the consumer
and intermediate goods sectors. In contrast, the downturn
at investment goods producers continued. The main factor
underlying output growth was improved intakes of new
work. Business optimism also strengthened, hitting a nine month high, reflecting planned new investment, product
launches, improved market conditions and a more settled
political outlook. ( IHS Markit )

This morning that was added to by this.

UK construction companies signalled a return to business
activity growth during February, following a nine-month
period of declining workloads. The latest survey also pointed to the sharpest rise in new orders since December 2015. Anecdotal evidence mainly linked the recovery to a postelection improvement in business confidence and pent-up demand for new projects. ( IHS Markit)

If there is a catch it is that we have seen the Markit PMI methodology hit trouble recently in the German manufacturing sector so the importance of these numbers needs to be downgraded again.

Monetary Conditions

As you can see the situation looks strong here too as this from the Bank of England yesterday shows.

Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose to 70,900, the highest since February 2016.

The annual growth rate of consumer credit remained at 6.1% in January, stabilising after the downward trend seen over past three years.

UK businesses made net repayments of £0.4 billion of finance in January, driven by net repayments of loans.

Please make note of that as I will return to it later. Now let us take a look starting with the central banking priority.

Mortgage approvals for house purchase (an indicator for future lending) rose to 70,900 in January, 4.4% higher than in December, and the highest since February 2016. This takes the series above the very narrow range seen over past few years.

Actual net mortgage lending at £4 billion is a lagging indicator so the Bank of England will be expecting this to pick up especially if we note current conditions. This is because the five-year Gilt yield has fallen to 0.3%. Now conditions are volatile right now but if it stays down here we can expect even lower mortgage rates providing yet another boost for the housing market.

Next we move to the fastest growing area of the economy.

The annual growth rate of consumer credit (credit used by consumers to buy goods and services) remained at 6.1% in January. The growth rate has been around this level since May 2019, having fallen steadily from a peak of 10.9% in late 2016.

As you can see the slowing has stopped and been replaced by this.

These growth rates represent a £1.2 billion flow of consumer credit in January, in line with the £1.1 billion average seen since July 2018.

Broad money growth has been picking up too since later last spring and is now at 4.3%.

Total money holdings in January rose by £9.4 billion, primarily driven by a £4.2 billion increase in NIOFC’s money holding.

The amount of money held by households rose by £2.8 billion in January, compared to £3.3 billion in December. The amount of money held by PNFCs also rose by £2.3 billion.

Comment

The numbers above link with this new plan from the ECB.

Measures being considered by the ECB include a targeted longer-term refinancing operation directed at small and medium-sized firms, which could be hardest hit by a virus-related downturn, sources familiar with the discussion told Reuters. ( City-AM)

You see when the Bank of England did this back in 2012 with the Funding for Lending Scheme it boosted mortgage lending and house prices. Where business lending did this.

UK businesses repaid £4.1 billion of bank loans in January. This predominantly reflected higher repayments. These weaker flows resulted in a fall in the annual growth rate of bank lending to 0.8%, the weakest since July 2018. Within this, the growth rate of borrowing from large businesses and SMEs fell to 0.9% and 0.5% respectively.

I think that over 7 years is enough time to judge a policy and we can see that like elsewhere ( Japan) such schemes end up boosting the housing market.

It also true that the Bank of England has a Governor Mark Carney with a fortnight left. But he has been speaking in Parliament today.

BANK OF ENGLAND’S CARNEY SAYS SHOULD EXPECT A RESPONSE THAT HAS A MIX OF FISCAL AND CENTRAL BANK ELEMENTS

BANK OF ENGLAND’S CARNEY SAYS EXPECT POWERFUL AND TIMELY GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESPONSE TO CORONAVIRUS ( @PrispusIQ)

That sounds like a lot of hot air which of course is an irony as he moves onto the climate change issue. I would imagine that he cannot wait to get away and leave his successor to face the problems created by him and his central planning cohorts and colleagues.

His successor is no doubt hoping to reward those who appointed him with an interest-rate cut just like in Yes Prime Minister.

 

 

The ECB is now resorting to echoing Humpty Dumpty

Focus has shifted to the Euro area this week as we see that something of an economic storm is building. For a while now we have seen the impact of the trade war which has reduced the Germany economy to a crawl with economic growth a mere 0.4% over the past year. Then both Italy (0.3%) and France ( 0.1%) saw contractions in the final quarter of 2019. Now in an example of being kicked when you are down one of the worst outbreaks of Corona Virus outside of China is being seen in Italy. Indeed the idea of Austria stopping a train with people from Italy suspected of having the virus posed a question for one of the main tenets of the Euro area as well as reminding of the film The Cassandra Crossing.

Tourism

This is a big deal for Italy as The Local explained last summer.

Announcing the new findings, ENIT chief Giorgio Palmucci said tourism accounted for 13 percent of Italy’s gross domestic product.

The food and wine tourism sector continued to be the most profitable of all.

The study’s authors found that “the daily per capita expenditure for a food and wine holiday is in fact in our country is about 117 euros. Meanwhile it was 107 for trips to the mountains and 91 on the coast.”

The numbers were for 2017 and were showing growth but sadly if we look lower on the page we come to a sentence that now rather stands out.

Visitor numbers are only expected to keep growing. Many in the tourism industry predict 2019 will busier than ever in Italy, partly thanks to a growing Chinese tourism market.

Maybe so, but what about 2020? There have to be questions now and Italy is not the only country which does well from tourism.

Tourism plays a major role in the French economy. The accommodation and food  services sector, representing the largest part of the tourism sector, accounts for between
2.5% and 3% of GDP while the knock-on effects of tourism are also felt in other sectors, such as transport and leisure. Consequently, the total amount of internal tourism
consumption, which combines tourism-related spending by both French residents and non-residents, represents around 7.5% of GDP (5% for residents, 2.5% for non-residents). ( OECD)

Spain

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution associated with tourism, measured through the total tourist demand, reached 137,020 million euros in 2017. This figure represented 11.7% of GDP, 0.4% more than in 2016. ( INE )

Last summer Kathimerini pointed out that tourism was not only a big part of the Greek economy but was a factor in its recent improvement.

Tourism generates over a quarter of Greece’s gross domestic product, according to data presented on Wednesday by the Institute of the Greek Tourism Confederation (INSETE). The data highlight the industry’s importance to the national economy and employment, as well as tourism’s quasi-monopolistic status in the country’s growth.

According to the latest figures available, at least one percentage point out of the 1.9 points of economic expansion last year came from tourism.

It wondered whether Greece relied on it too much which I suspect many more are worried about today, although fortunately Greece has only had one case of Corona Virus so far. It not only badly needs some good news but deserves it. After all another big sector for it will be affected by wider virus problems.

That also illustrates the country’s great dependence on tourism, as Greece has not developed any other important sector, with the possible exception of shipping, which accounts for about 7 percent of GDP.

Economic Surveys

Italy has released its official version this morning.

As for the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) improved passing from 99.2 to 99.8.

That for obvious reasons attracts attention and if we look we see there may be a similar problem as we saw on the Markit IHS survey for Germany.

The confidence index in manufacturing increased only just from 100.0 to 100.6. Among the series included
into the definition of the climate, the opinions on order books bettered from -15.5 to -14.3 while the
expectations on production decreased from 5.6 to 4.7

As you can see the expectations  for production have fallen. Perhaps we should note that this index averaged 99.5 in the last quarter of 2019 when the economy shrank by 0.3%

France had something similar yesterday.

In February 2020, households’ confidence in the economic situation has been stable. The synthetic index has stayed at 104, above its long-term average (100).

This continued a theme begun on Tuesday.

In February 2020, the business climate is stable. At 105, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, is still above its long-term mean (100). Compared to January, the business climate has gained one point in retail trade and in services.

Really? This is a long-running set of surveys but we seem to be having a divorce from reality because if we return to household confidence I note that consumption fell in December.

Household consumption expenditure on goods fell in December (–0.3%) but increased over the fourth quarter (+0.4%).

Money Supply

This may give us a little clue to the surveys above. From the ECB earlier.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 7.9% in January, compared with 8.0% in December.

Whilst the number has dipped recently from the two 8.4% readings we saw in the latter part of 2019 it is much better than the 6.2% recorded last January. So maybe the surveys are in some sense picking an element of that up as the interest-rate cut and recommencement of QE bond buying feeds into the data.

Comment

If we switch to the ECB looking for clues as to what is happening in the economy then I would suggests it discounts heavily what the European Commission has just released.

In February 2020, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased in both the euro area (by 0.9 points to 103.5) and the EU (by 0.5 points to 103.0).

 

 

That does not fit with this at all.

GERMANY’S VDA SAYS CORONAVIRUS IS AFFECTING SUPPLY CHAINS OF CAR MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS ( @PriapusIQ )

Anyway the newly appointed Isabel Schnabel of the ECB has been speaking today and apparently it is a triumph that its policies have stabilised economic growth somewhere around 0%.

Although the actions of major central banks over the past few years have succeeded in easing financial conditions and thereby stabilising growth and inflation, current and expected inflation rates remain stubbornly below target, in spite of years of exceptional monetary policy support.

Next she sings along with The Chairmen of the Board.

Give me just a little more time
And our love will surely grow
Give me just a little more time
And our love will surely grow

How?

This implies that the medium-term horizon over which the ECB pursues the sustainable alignment of inflation with its aim is considerably longer than in the past.

Another case of To Infinity! And Beyond! Except on this occasion we are addressing time rather than the amount of the operation which no doubt will be along soon enough.

Indeed she echoes Alice in Wonderland with this.

For the ECB, this means that the length of the “medium term” – which is an integral part of its definition of price stability – will vary over time.

Which sounds rather like.

When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”

Although briefly she seems to have some sort of epiphany.

central banks often have only a limited understanding of the precise configuration of the forces

But it does not last and as ever I expect the result to be even lower interest-rates and more QE as the “lower bound” she mentions gets well er lower again.

Some of this is beyond the ECB’s control as there is not much it can do about a trade war and nothing about a virus outbreak. But by interfering in so many areas it has placed itself in the game and is caught in a trap of its own making. Or returning to The Chairmen of the Board.

There’s no need to act foolishly
If we part our hearts won’t forget it
Years from now we’ll surely regret it

Italy continues to see features of an economic depression

Today gives us an opportunity to compare economic and financial market developments in Italy as this week has brought some which are really rather extraordinary. Let us start with the economics and look at the IMF ( International Monetary Fund ) mission statement yesterday.

Real GDP growth in 2019 is estimated at 0.2 percent, down from a 10-year high of 1.7 percent in 2017.

As you can see they are agreeing with my theme that Italy struggles to sustain any rate of economic growth above 1% per annum. Then they also agree with my “Girlfriend in a Coma” theme as well.

 Real personal incomes remain about 7 percent below the pre-crisis (2007) peak and continue to fall behind euro area peers. Despite record employment rates, unemployment is high at close to 10 percent, with much higher rates in the South and among the youth. Female workforce participation is the lowest in the EU.

The real income situation is particularly damning of the economic position especially if we note that unemployment has continued to be elevated. That brings us back to the economic growth not getting above 1% for long enough for unemployment to fall faster.

What about now?

The IMF has a go at saying things will get better but then lapses into the classic quote of a two-handed economist.

The economic situation is projected to improve modestly but is subject to downside risks.

So let us see if the detail does better than it might go up or down?

Real GDP growth is forecast at ½ percent in 2020 and 0.6-0.7 percent thereafter. These forecasts are the lowest in the EU, reflecting weak potential growth. Materialization of adverse shocks, such as escalating trade tensions, a slowdown in key trading partners or geopolitical events, could lead to a much weaker outlook.

As you can see there is not much growth which frankly in measurement terms would take several years even to cover any margin of error. I also note a rather grim ending as the IMF maybe gives us its true view “could lead to a much weaker outlook.” Another slow down or recession would be a real problem as we note again that real personal incomes are 7% lower than before. If that is/was the peak then how long will this economic depression go on?

The Euro zone

If we look wider for en economic influence the news is not that good either. For example the situation from the overall flash Markit PMI business survey was this.

The ‘flash’ IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI®
was unchanged at 50.9 in January, signalling a
further muted increase in activity across the euro
area economy. The rate of expansion has remained
broadly stable since the start of the final quarter of
2019, running at the weakest for around six-and-ahalf years.

If we now move to my signal for near-term economic developments the ECB told us this yesterday.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 8.0% in December from 8.3% in November.

The money supply situation had improved in 2019 but as you can dipped at the end. So the impetus is weaker than it was. In case you are wondering we have seen this before in phases of QE which is currently 20 billion Euros a month and thus boosting the numbers. There are other influences as well.

The broader money supply had a sharper fall and represents the outlook for 2021/22.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 5.0% in December 2019 from 5.6% in November, averaging 5.4% in the three months up to December.

We will have to see if this is a new development or just a financial market glitch.

The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) was -7.2% in December, compared with -1.1% in November.

Back to Italy

The troubled area across much of the world is the industrial sector and the latest we have on that is this from the Italian statistics office.

The seasonally adjusted volume turnover index (only for the manufacturing sector) remained unchanged
compared to the previous month; the average of the last three months increased by 0.3% compared to
the previous three months. The calendar adjusted volume turnover index increased by 0.2% with respect
to the same month of the previous year. ( November )

This morning there was troubling news for those of us who have noted that employment has often been a leading ( as opposed to the economics 101 view of lagging) indicator in the credit crunch era.

The estimate of employed people decreased (-0.3%, -75 thousand); the employment rate went down to
59.2% (-0.1 percentage points).
The fall of employment concerned both men and women. A rise is observed among 15-24 aged people (+6
thousand), people aged 25-49 decreased (-79 thousand), while people over 50 remained stable.

This meant that if we look for some perspective progress seems to have stopped.

In the fourth quarter 2019, in comparison with the previous one, a slight increase of employment is registered (+0.1%, +13 thousand) and it concerned only women.

We will have to see if that continues as we worry about possible implications for this.

The number of unemployed persons slightly grew (+0.1%, +2 thousand in the last month); the increase
was the result of a growth among men (+2.2%, +28 thousand) and a decrease for women (-2.2%, -27
thousand), and involved people under 50. The unemployment rate remained stable at 9.8%, as also the
youth rate, unchanged at 28.9%.

Italian bond market

If we return to the IMF statement the story starts badly.

 Italy needs credible medium-term consolidation as fiscal space remains at risk.Debt is projected to remain high at close to 135 percent of GDP over the medium term and to increase in the longer term owing to pension spending. If adverse shocks were to materialize, debt would rise sooner and faster.

Somehow in the current economic environment the IMF seems to think that more austerity would be a good idea. Amazing really!

But this week has in fact seen this.

Massive, massive move in #Italy’s 10-year bond yield from 1.44% to 0.95% now. A 50 basis point move in a matter of days party driven by a #Salvini right-wing loss in regional elections. ( @jeroenblokland ) 

These days almost whatever the fiscal arithmetic we see that investors are so desperate for yield they will buy anything and hope the central bank will step up and buy it off them for a profit. Just as a reminder back around 2012 the yield went above 7% on fears the fiscal position suggested Italy was insolvent which of course were self-fulfilling as a yield of 7% made sure it was. But apart from QE what is really different now?

Comment

The depth of the problem is highlighted by this from the IMF.

Steadfast implementation of structural reforms would unlock Italy’s potential and durably improve outcomes. Reforms to liberalize markets and decentralize wage bargaining should be prioritized. They are estimated to yield real income gains of about 6-7 percent of GDP over a decade.

That’s a convenient number isn’t it? But the real issue is that this is a repetition of the remarks at the ECB press conference which are repeated every time. Why? Nothing ever happens.

The longer the economic depression goes on then the demographics become a bigger issue.

The number of births continues to decrease: in 2018, 439,747 children were registered in the General Register Office, over 18,000 less than the previous year and almost 140,000 less than 2008.

The persistent decline in the birthrate has an impact above all on the firstborn children, who decreased to 204,883, 79 thousand less than 2008.

Italy is a lovely country but the economics is an example of keep trying to apply the things that have consistently failed.

The Investing Channel

 

 

 

Climate change is on Mark Carney’s agenda as he ignores the rise in consumer credit

As November ends and we move into December there is a fair bit for the Bank of England to consider.Only a week ago we were told this by the new “flash” Markit PMI business survey.

“The weak survey data puts the economy on course for a 0.2% drop in GDP in the fourth quarter, and also pushes the PMI further into territory that would normally be associated with the Bank of England adding more stimulus to the economy”

Poor old Markit never seem to question why more stimulus is apparently nearly always needed, But this was quite a different outlook to what the Bank of England had told us earlier this month.

The MPC expected continued subdued growth, of 0.2%, in 2019 Q4.

Another factor to add in is that the Bank of England has in an example of being once bitten, twice shy lost a bit of faith in the Markit PMIs since the day the absent-minded professor Ben Broadbent so lauded them.

Although business survey indicators, taken together, pointed to a contraction in GDP in Q4, the relationship between survey responses and growth appeared to have been weaker at times of uncertainty and some firms may have considered a no-deal Brexit as likely when they had
responded to the latest available surveys/

Even central bankers must realise that the panicky hints of a 0.1% Bank Rate based on the post EU Leave vote PMIs was a complete failure.

The UK Pound £

This has been in a stronger phase and was noted in the monetary minutes.

The sterling exchange rate index had
increased by around 3% since the previous MPC meeting, and sterling implied volatilities had fallen back
somewhat, although they remained significantly higher than their euro and dollar counterparts.

If we look now we see that the broad effective or trade weighted exchange rate fell to around 73.5 in mid August but is now 79.3. Under the old Bank of England rule of thumb that was considered to be nearly equivalent to a 1.5% interest-rate rise. Even if we reduce the impact as times have changed I think and trim the effect we are still left in my opinion with say a 1% rise.

We can look at that in two ways.Firstly it has a material impact and secondly it has hard not to have a wry smile. After all who can actually see the present Bank of England raising interest-rates by 1%?! Events would have to have taken over.

Broad Money

We can also look at the likely outlook via the money supply numbers. This morning the Bank of England has told us this.

Broad money (M4ex) is a measure of the amount of money held by households, non-financial businesses (PNFCs) and financial companies that do not act as intermediaries, such as pension funds or insurance companies (NIOFCs). Total money holdings in October rose by £1.6 billion, this was weak compared to both September and the average of the previous six-months.

That is a slowing after three better months. This is an erratic series and we see that this month businesses were responsible.

The amount of money held by households rose by £3.7 billion in October, primarily driven by increased holdings of interest bearing sight deposits. NIOFC’s money holdings fell by £2.4 billion, while the amount held by PNFCs rose by £0.4 billion.

If we switch to what does this mean? Well broad money impacts nominal output around 18 months to 2 years ahead.  So with an annual rate of growth of 3.6% we would expect economic growth of 1.6% assuming the Bank of England hits its 2% inflation target. That’s the theory as reality is usually not so convenient so please take this as a broad brush.

The good news is that the last 6 months or so have seen a pick-up so we may see one in 2021.The problem is that the numbers had been falling since the impact of the “Sledgehammer QE” of the summer/autumn of 2016. So it is no great surprise to those who look at the monetary data that economic growth has been weak and using it suggests similar as we head into 2020.

Mortgage Lending

We cannot look into the mind of a central banker without noting the large area taken up by the housing market.From that perspective this is good news below.

Net mortgage borrowing by households was £4.3 billion in October, £0.4 billion higher than in September. The recent stability in the monthly flows has left the annual growth rate unchanged at 3.2%, close to levels seen over the past three years. Mortgage approvals for house purchase (an indicator for future lending) fell slightly in October, to 65,000, but remained within the narrow range seen over the past two years.

Indeed their hearts must have been racing when they read this in the Guardian yesterday.

House price growth in the UK has picked up

Only to be dashed when they read further down.

The average price of a home rose by 0.5% in November to £215,734, according to Nationwide building society. This is the biggest monthly rise since July 2018, and up from 0.2% in October. The annual growth rate picked up to 0.8% from 0.4%, the highest since April.

Whilst we welcome the relative improvement in affordability from the point of view of the Bank of England this will lead to head scratching. They went to a lot of effort with the Funding for Lending Scheme back in the summer of 2012 to get net mortgage lending back into positive territory. But it and real wage growth have lost their mojo for now in this area.

Consumer Credit

By contrast this has lifted off again.

The extra amount borrowed by consumers in order to buy goods and services rose to £1.3 billion in October, above the £1.1 billion average since July 2018. Within this, net borrowing for both credit cards and other loans and advances rose, to £0.4 billion and £1.0 billion respectively.

The annual growth rate of consumer credit was 6.1% in October, up from 5.9% in September.

Is there anything else in the UK economy rising at an annual rate of 6.1%? Also there is an element of being economical with the truth below.

This is the first increase in the annual growth rate since June 2018, but it remains considerably lower than its post-crisis peak of 10.9% in November 2016.

You see last month they revised the figures by adding an extra £6.1 billion or around 5 months worth of growth at the current rate. Anyway the total is now £225 billion.

Comment

For the moment the Bank of England is in a type of purdah period which the Governor is using to expand into other areas.

The world needs a new, sustainable financial system to stop runaway climate change…….A new, sustainable financial system is under construction. It is funding the initiatives and innovations of the private sector and amplifying the effectiveness of governments’ climate policies—it could even accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. ( IMF )

Those worried about the future of the planet should be terrified at the present march of the globetrotting central bankers onto their lawns.Just look at their track record! But I guess Governor Carney is in need of a new job.

Returning to his present job we see that an interest-rate cut on the 19th of next month is looking increasingly likely. After all they are seldom much bothered by issues such as consumer credit rising although these days they seem to be having ever more trouble simply counting.

Some statistics on the outstanding amount of lending and deposits within the banking sector have been revised for September. In the first vintage of September’s statistics, some of this data was reported using an approach that was inconsistent to previous data, and reduced the total amounts outstanding. The current vintage of data corrects for this.

Even less reason for them to be involved in the future of the planet and that is before we get to their forecasting record….

The Investing Channel

What more can the ECB do for the Euro?

Yesterday in something of a set piece event the new ECB President Christine Lagarde got out her pen to sign some banknotes and in the midst of her soaring rhetoric there were some interesting numbers.

In the euro area, banknotes are used for retail transactions more than any other means of payment. Some 79% of all transactions are carried out using cash, amounting to more than half of the total value of all payments.

So cash may no longer be king but it is still an important part of the Euro area economy. Indeed the numbers below suggest it may be an increasingly important part, perhaps driven by the fact that 0% is indeed better than the -0.5% deposit rate of the ECB.

And since their introduction, the number of euro banknotes in circulation has risen steadily, reflecting both the importance of cash in our economy and the euro’s international appeal. There are now 23 billion euro banknotes in circulation with a value of €1.26 trillion – a third of which are being used outside the euro area.

The latter reflection on use outside the Euro area is a rise because if we look elsewhere on the ECB website we are told this.

It is estimated that, in terms of value, between 20% and 25% of the euro banknotes in circulation are held outside the euro area, mainly in the neighbouring countries. The demand for euro banknotes rose steeply particularly in non-EU countries in eastern Europe when the financial crisis erupted in 2008 and national currencies depreciated against the euro.

We can figure out what was going on there as we recall the carry trade leading to mortgages and business borrowing being undertaken in Euros ( and Swiss Francs) in Eastern Europe. I guess that left some with a taste for the adventures of Stevie V.

Money talks, mmm-hmm-hmm, money talks
Dirty cash I want you, dirty cash I need you, woh-oh
Money talks, money talks
Dirty cash I want you, dirty cash I need you, woh-oh

I am not sure as to why the foreign holdings have risen so much. Some will no doubt cheer lead saying it is a sign of Euro acceptance and strength but there is the issue of notes being potentially used by money launderers and drug smugglers. The ECB is supposed to be against such criminal activity and has used that reason in its ending of production of 500 Euro notes.The circulation of them is in a gentle decline and there are now 458 million of them. The numbers of 200 Euro notes has shot higher as there were 253 million a year ago as opposed to 366 million ( and rising) now.

I did ask the ECB and they pointed me towards this.

Euro cash holdings are widespread in Albania, Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Republic of North Macedonia and Serbia. In those five countries, an average of 36% of respondents reported holding euro cash……..

That still leaves a fair bit unanswered.

Money Supply

There was some good news for the Euro area economic outlook earlier from this.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 8.4% in October from 7.9% in September.

Here we are adding some electronic money to the cash above and we can see that the upwards trend seen in 2019 has been reinstated after last month’s dip. Or if you prefer we have returned to August!

This gives an explanation of how the services sector has held up as the trade war has hit manufacturing. According to the Markit PMI surveys this is especially true in France.

Service sector growth continued to run at one of the highest
recorded over the past year.

The Euro area and the ECB should be grateful for this as according to Matkit even with the monetary growth things in this quarter are weak.

“The eurozone economy remained becalmed for a
third successive month in November, with the
lacklustre PMI indicative of GDP growing at a
quarterly rate of just 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the
third quarter.”

If we switch to the longer-term outlook we see this.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 5.6% in October 2019, unchanged from the previous month, averaging 5.6% in the three months up to October.

I think we get the idea that it is 5.6%! Anyway as we know M1 rose the wider sectors must have fallen.

The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) decreased to 0.6% in October from 1.2% in September. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) was -2.4% in October, compared with -1.1% in September.

The growth rate of 5.6% suggests a better economic outlook for 2021 and head but there is a catch which is this.

 net external assets contributed 3.0 percentage points (up from 2.8 percentage points)

The external influence has been growing over the past year or so and if we subtract it then broad money growth is a mere 2.6% and flashing a warning.

Official Surveys

Today’s releases were upbeat.

In November 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased slightly in both the euro area (by 0.5 points to
101.3) and the EU (by 0.9 points to 100.0)……Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI increased in Spain (+0.7), France and Germany (both by +0.4), while it remained virtually unchanged in Italy (-0.1) and worsened in the Netherlands (−1.0).

However there was another sign of trouble,trouble,trouble for manufacturing.

According to the bi-annual investment survey carried out in October/November this year, real investment in the
manufacturing industry in 2019 is expected to decrease by 2% in both the euro area and the EU. Compared to the
previous survey conducted in March/April this year, this represents a downward revision by 6 and 5 percentage
points for the euro area and the EU, respectively. For 2020, managers expect an increase in real investment by 1%
in both regions.

Care is needed with this series though because if you believed it wholesale Germany would be having a good year economically.

Comment

The ECB finds itself at something of a crossroads.Some elements here are simple as with a weak economy and blow target inflation then its policy easing looks justified.It does not seem to have many monetarists on board but it could easily argue that monetary growth is supporting the economy.

The more difficult elements come from how quickly it had to ease policy again as the ceasefire only lasted around ten months. This then brings into focus the question of why economic growth has been so weak? One way it is trying to answer this is provided by the way it has replaced someone who sometimes behaved like a politician with an actual one which suggests a bigger effort in this area.

“Countries with fiscal space should use it quickly, even more so when they suffer an asymmetric shock like Germany,” Villeroy told the Europlace international forum in Tokyo. “Those with high public debt should make their public finances more growth-friendly. ( Reuters)

Some of this is more French trolling of Germany but France has been more in favour of fiscal policy all along. As a side-effect by providing more bunds for the ECB to buy more fiscal policy from Germany would allow another expansion of monetary policy.

That leaves us with a curiosity that may become the equivalent of a singularity. Central banks have failed in the credit crunch era yet their importance rises and especially in the Euro area they seem to feel it is their role to dictate to politicians,

 

 

 

Where next for US house prices?

Yesterday brought us up to date in the state of play in the US housing market. So without further ado let us take a look.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in September, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, up from 2.0% in the previous month.

The first impression is that by the standards we have got used to that is a low number providing us with another context for the interest-rate cuts we have seen in 2019 from the US Federal Reserve. Of course it is not only the Fed that likes higher asset prices.

“DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500 CLOSE AT RECORD HIGHS”

Another new Stock Market Record. Enjoy!

Those are 2 separate tweets from Monday from President Trump who not only loves a stock market rally but enjoys claiming it is all down to him. I do not recall him specifically noting house prices but it seems in the same asset price pumping spirit to me.

In my opinion the crucial part of the analysis provided by S&P comes right at the beginning.

After a long period of decelerating price increases, it’s notable that in September both the national and
20-city composite indices rose at a higher rate than in August, while the 10-city index’s September rise
matched its August performance. It is, of course, too soon to say whether this month marks an end to
the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend.

If we look at the situation we see that things are very different from the 10% per annum rate reached in 2014 and indeed the 7% per annum seen in the early part of last year.That will concern the Fed which went to an extreme amount of effort to get house prices rising again. From a peak of 184.62 in July of 2006 the national index fell to 134.62 in February of 2012 and has now rallied to 212.2 or 58% up from the low and 15% up from the previous peak.

As ever there are regional differences.

Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In
September, Phoenix led the way with a 6.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with
a 4.6% increase and Tampa with a 4.5% increase. Ten of the 20 cities reported greater price increases
in the year ending September 2019 versus the year ending August 2019…….. Of the 20 cities in the composite, only one (San Francisco) saw a year-over-year price
decline in September

Mortgage Rates

If we look for an influence here we see a contributor to the end of the 7% per annum house price rise in 2018 as they rose back then. But since then things have been rather different as those who have followed my updates on the US bond market will be expecting. Indeed Mortgage News Daily put it like this.

2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011.  Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections……Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players.

But we see that so far a move that began in bond markets around last November has yet to have a major influence on house prices. If you wish to know what US house buyers are paying for a mortgage here is the state of play.

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios

  • 30YR FIXED -3.75%
  • FHA/VA – 3.375%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  3.25-3.75% depending on the lender

More recently bonds seem to be rallying again so we may see another dip in mortgage rates but we will have to see and with Thanksgiving Day on the horizon things may be well be quiet for the rest of this week.

The economy

This has been less helpful for house prices.There may be a minor revision later but as we stand the third quarter did this.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. ( US BEA ).

Each quarter in 2019 has seen lower growth and that trend seems set to continue.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4.

News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2019:Q4 by 0.3 percentage point.

Positive surprises from housing data drove most of the increase.

Something of a mixture there as the number rallied due to housing data from building permits and housing starts.Mind you more supply into the same demand could push future prices lower! But returning to the wider economy back in late September the NY Fed was expecting economic growth in line with the previous 5 months of around 2% in annualised terms.But now even with a rally it is a mere 0.7%.

Employment and Wages

The situation here has continued to improve.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little
changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in
food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities……..In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $28.18. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.0 percent.

But the real issue here is the last number. Yes the US has wage gains and they are real wage gains with CPI being as shown below in October.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

So this should be helping although it is a slow burner at just over 1% per annum and of course we are reminded that according to the Ivory Towers the employment situation should mean that wage growth is a fair bit higher and certainly over 4% per annum.

Moving back to looking at house prices then wage growth is pretty much the same so houses are not getting more affordable on this criteria.

Comment

As we review the situation it is hard not to laugh at this from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday.

While events of the year have not much changed the outlook,

You can take this one of two ways.Firstly his interest-rate cuts are not especially relevant or you can wonder why he did them? Looking at the trend for GDP growth does few favours to his statement nor for this bit.

Fortunately, the outlook for further progress is good

Indeed he seemed to keep contradicting himself.

 The preview indicated that job gains over that period were about half a million lower than previously reported. On a monthly basis, job gains were likely about 170,000 per month, rather than 210,000.

But I do note that house prices did get an implicit reference.

But the wealth of middle-income families—savings, home equity, and other assets—has only recently surpassed levels seen before the Great Recession, and the wealth of people with lower incomes, while growing, has yet to fully recover.

As to other signals we get told pretty much every day that the trade war is fixed so there is not a little fatigue and ennui on this subject. Looking at the money supply then it should be supportive but the most recent number for narrow money M1 at 6.8% shows a bit of fading too.

So whilst we may see a boost for the economy from around the spring of next year we seem set for more of the same for house prices.Unless of course the US Federal Reserve has to act again which with the ongoing Repo numbers is a possibility. The background is this though which brings me back to why central bankers are so keen on keeping on keeping house prices out of consumer inflation measures.Can you guess which of the lines below goes into the official CPI?

https://www.bourbonfm.com/blog/house-price-index-vs-owners-equivalent-rent-residences-1990

Whilst it is not sadly up to date it does establish a principle….

 

 

Japan and Korea have chosen a bad time to fire up their own trade war

This is a story influenced by a brewing trade war but not the one that you might think. It is between Japan and Korea and the latest phase started in July when Japan imposed restrictions on trade with Korea for 3 chemicals. This gets more significant when you realise that they are crucial for smartphones ( displays on particular) and that according to CNBC Japan is responsible for 90% of the world’s supply of them. This affects quite of bit of Korean industry with Samsung being the headliner. Them Japan dropped Korea from its whitelist of trusted trading partners making trade more difficult before Korea did the same.

According to Bloomberg Citigroup have tried to downplay this today but I note these bits of it.

Meanwhile, boycotts in South Korea have led to a plunge in sales of Japanese consumer goods and a decrease in tourists to Japan, who may have decided to travel domestically instead, according to Citi………Last month, South Korean exports to Japan fell 14 percent, while imports from Japan slid 23 percent. South Korea’s trade ministry attributed the declines to industrial factors rather than trade actions.

Ah an official denial! We know what that means.

The issue has deep roots in the past and the Japanese occupation of the Korean peninsula a century ago as well as its later use of Korean “comfort women.” That explains the Korean issue with Japan and on the other side the Japanese consider themselves superior to Koreans and in my time there were quite open about it. Whilst he initially made moves to calm the situation there was always going to be an issue with a nationalistic politician like  Shinzo Abe running Japan.But let us move on noting that both countries will be experiencing an economic brake.

Japan Economic Growth

Let me hand you over to The Japan Times which gives us the position and some perspective.

In the third quarter the world’s third-largest economy grew an annualized 0.2 percent, slowing sharply from a revised 1.8 percent expansion in April to June, according to preliminary gross domestic product data released by the government Thursday.

It fell well short of a median market forecast for a 0.8 percent gain, and marked the weakest growth since a 2.0 percent contraction in the July-September period last year.

So over the past six months Japan has grown by 0.5% and we also get an idea of the erratic nature of economic growth there.This is partly due to the way that Japan does not conform to stereotype as it has struggled more than elsewhere to measure GDP. Partly due to last year’s third quarter drop. annual growth has picked up to 1.3% but that looks like being the peak.

Why? Well the 0.2% growth was driven by a 0.9% rise in domestic demand ( both numbers are annualised) just in time for the consumption tax to be raised. Actually private consumption was up 1.4% in the quarter suggesting that purchases were being made ahead of the rise.

At the end of last month this was reinforced by this.

The Consumer Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted series) in October 2019 was 36.2, up 0.6 points from the previous month.

Yes it was up but you see the number had fallen from around 44 at the opening of 2018 and these are the lowest readings since 2011.

Korea Economic Growth

Real gross domestic product (chained volume measure of GDP) grew by 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the previous quarter……Real GDP (chained volume measure of GDP) increased by 2.0 percent year on
year in the third quarter of 2019.

In a broad sweep this means that economic growth has been slowing as it was 3.2% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. Rather unusually Korea saw strong export growth especially of we look at what was exported.

Exports increased by 4.1 percent, as exports of goods such as motor vehicles and semiconductors expanded. Imports were up by 0.9 percent, owing to increased imports of transportation equipment.

Also manufacturing grew.

Manufacturing rose by 2.1 percent, mainly due to an increase in computer, electronic and optical products.

However the economy has been slowing and if either of those reverse will slow even more quickly. Back on the 18th of October we noted this response.

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea decided today to lower the Base Rate by 25 basis points, from 1.50% to 1.25%.

This was more of an external rather than an internal move as last week we learnt this.

During September 2019 Narrow Money (M1, seasonally adjusted, period-average) increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month.

So whilst it had been weak as annual growth was 3.3% in June it has risen since to 5% which is slightly above the average for 2018.

However they could cut on inflation grounds as this from Korea Statistics shows.

The Consumer Price Index was 105.46(2015=100) in October 2019. The index increased 0.2 percent from the preceding  month and was unchanged from the same month of the previous year.

According to the Bank of Korea the outlook is for more of the same.

 The Producer Price Index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September 2019 – in year-on-year terms it decreased by 0.7%.

Exchange Rate

This is at 10.68 Won to the Yen as I type this and is up over 7% over the past year. So an additional factor in the situation will be that the Korean’s have been winning the currency war. This of course, will be annoying for Shinzo Abe who’s Abenomics programme set out to weaker the Japanese Yen. As we stand Korea has an official interest-rate some 1.35% higher so there is not a lot the Bank of Japan can do about this.

Comment

As we stand it initially looks as if Korea will be the relative winner here.

“Domestic demand had made up for some of the weakness in external demand, but we can’t count on this to continue,” said Taro Saito, executive research fellow at NLI Research Institute.

“A contraction in October-December GDP is a done deal. The economy may rebound early next year, but will lack momentum.” ( Japan Times)

But the argument it is in a stronger position weakens somewhat if we switch to its Gross National Income.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 0.1 percent compared to the previous quarter.

Over the past year it has gone on a quarterly basis -0.3%,0.2%,-0.7% and now 0.1%.

Korea is looking to use fiscal policy to stimulate its economy which sets it in the opposite direction to the consumption tax rise in Japan. But as they use a time of trouble to posture and scrap let us look at something that they share.

Korea’s potential output growth is expected to fall further in the long term, as the productive population declines in line with population aging and the low fertility rate……In addition, it is necessary to slow down the decline in labor supply resulting from population aging and the low birth rate, through policy efforts including encouraging women and young people to participate in economic activities and coping actively with the low birth rate. ( Bank of Korea Working Paper )

I wonder what the latter bit really means?

Meanwhile this is the last thing Japan needs right now.

(Reuters) – Japan’s Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) has said it is recalling 394,025 cars in the United States over a braking system defect, causing concerns that a brake fluid leak could potentially lead to a fire.

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