France decides to Spend! Spend! Spend!

Yesterday brought something that was both new and familiar from France. The new part is a substantial extra fiscal stimulus. The familiar is that France as regular readers will be aware had been pushing the boundaries of the Euro area fiscal rules anyway, This is something which has led to friction with Italy which has come under fire for its fiscal position. Whereas France pretty much escaped it in spite of having its nose pressed against the Growth and Stability Pact limit of 3% of Gross Domestic Product for the fiscal deficit. Actually that Pact already feels as if it is from a lifetime ago although those who have argued that it gets abandoned when it suits France and Germany are no doubt having a wry smile.

The Details

Here is a translation of President Macron’s words.

We are now entering a new phase: that of recovery and reconstruction. To overcome the most important in our modern history, to prevent the cancer of mass unemployment from setting in, which unfortunately our country has suffered too long, today we decide to invest massively. 100 billion, of which 40 billion comes from financing obtained hard from the European Union, will thus be injected into the economy in the coming months. It is an unprecedented amount which, in relation to our national wealth, makes the French plan one of the most ambitious.

So the headline is 100 billion Euros which is a tidy sum even in these inflated times for such matters. Also you will no doubt have spotted that he is trying to present something of a windfall from the European Union which is nothing of the sort. The money will simply be borrowed collectively rather than individually. So it is something of a sleight of hand. One thing we can agree on is the French enthusiasm for fiscal policy, although of course they have been rather less enthusiatic in the past about such policies from some of their Euro area partners.

There are three components to this.

Out of 100 billion euros, 30 billion are intended to finance the ecological transition.

As well as a green agenda there is a plan to boost business which involves 35 billion Euros of which the main component is below.

As part of the recovery plan, production taxes will be reduced by € 10bn from January 1, 2021, and by sustainable way. It is therefore € 20bn in tax cuts of production over 2021–2022.

That is an interesting strategy at a time of a soaring fiscal deficit to day the least. So far we have ecology and competitiveness which seems to favour big business. Those who have followed French history may enjoy this reference from Le Monde.

With an approach that smacks of industrial Colbertism

The remaining 35 billion Euros is to go into what is described as public cohesion which is supporting jobs and health. In fact the jobs target is ambitious.

According to the French government, the plan will help the economy make up for the coronavirus-related loss of GDP by the end of 2022, and help create 160,000 new jobs next year.  ( MarketWatch)

Is it necessary?

PARIS (Reuters) – French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire believes that the French economy could perform better than currently forecast this year, he said on Friday.

“I think we will do better in 2020 than the 11% recession forecast at the moment,” Le Maire told BFM TV.

I suspect Monsieur Le Maire is a Beatles fan and of this in particular.

It’s getting better
Since you’ve been mine
Getting so much better all the time!

Of course things have got worse as he has told us they have got better. Something he may have repeated this morning.

August PMI® data pointed to the sharpest contraction in French construction activity for three months……….At the sub-sector level, the decrease in activity was broad based. Work undertaken on commercial projects fell at the
quickest pace since May, and there was a fresh decline in civil engineering activity after signs of recovery in June and July. Home building activity contracted for the sixth month running, although the rate of decrease was softer than in July. ( Markit)

We have lost a lot of faith in PMi numbers but even so there is an issue as I do not know if there is a French equivalent of “shovel ready”? But construction is a tap that fiscal policy can influence relatively quickly and there seems to be no sign of that at all.

Indeed the total PMI picture was disappointing.

“The latest PMI data came as a disappointment
following the sharp rise in private sector activity seen
during July, which had spurred hopes that the French
economy could undergo a swift recovery towards precoronavirus levels of output. However, with activity
growth easing considerably in the latest survey period,
those hopes have been dashed…”

So the data seems to be more in line with the view expressed below.

It is designed to try to “avoid an economic collapse,” French Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Thursday. ( MarketWatch)

Where are the Public Finances?

According to the Trading Economics this is this mornings update.

France’s government budget deficit widened to EUR 151 billion in the first seven months of 2020 from EUR 109.7 billion a year earlier, amid efforts to support the economy hit by the coronavirus crisis. Government spending jumped 10.4 percent from a year earlier to EUR 269.3 billion, while revenues went down 6.3 percent to EUR 142.25 billion

I think their definition of spending has missed out debt costs.

As of the end of June the public debt was 1.992 trillion Euros.

Comment

I have avoided being to specific about the size of the contraction of the economy and hence numbers like debt to GDP. There are several reasons for this. One is simply that we do not know them and also we do not know how much of the contraction will be temporary and how much permanent? We return to part of yesterday’s post and France will be saying Merci Madame Lagarde with passion. The various QE bond purchase programmes mean that France has a benchmark ten-year yield of -0.18% and even long-term borrowing is cheap as it estimates it will pay 0.57% for some 40 year debt on Monday. That’s what you get when you buy 473 billion Euros of something and that is just the original emergency programme or PSPP and not the new emergency programme or PEPP. On that road the European Union fund is pure PR as it ends up at the ECB anyway.

The Bank of France has looked at the chances of a rebound and if we look at unemployment and it looks rather ominous.

However, the speed of the recovery in the coming months and years is more uncertain, as is the peak in the unemployment rate, which the Banque de France forecasts at 11.8% in mid-2021 for France……….Chart 1 shows that in France, Germany, Italy, and the United States, once the unemployment rate peaked, it fell at a rate that was fairly similar from one crisis to the next: on average 0.55 percentage point (pp) per year in France and Italy, 0.7 pp in Germany, and 0.63 pp in the United States.

There is not much cheer there and they seem to have overlooked that unemployment rates have been much higher in the Euro area than the US. But we can see how this might have triggered the French fiscal response especially at these bond yields.

But Giulia Sestieri is likely to find that her conclusion about fiscal policy is likely to see the Bank of France croissant and espresso trolley also contain the finest brandy as it arrives at her desk.

Ceteris paribus, the lessons of economic literature suggest potentially large fiscal multipliers during the post-Covid19 recovery phase

Mind you that is a lot of caveats for one solitary sentence.

Even if this quarter sees economic growth of 7% Germany has gone back in time to 2015

Today has brought the economic engine of the Euro ares into focus as we digest a barrage of data from and about Germany. We find that the second effort at producing economic output figures for the second quarter has produced a small improvement.

WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) fell sharply by 9.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 on the 1st quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the GDP drop in the 2nd quarter of 2020 was not quite as steep as reported in the first release of 30 July 2020 (-10.1%).

This means that the comparison with last year improved as well.

11.3% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

The last figure is revealing in that it reminds us that the German economy had been in something of a go-slow even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit. Also we note that the hit was in broad terms double that of the credit crunch.

The slump in the German economy was thus much larger than during the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 (-4.7% in the 1st quarter of 2009) and the sharpest decline since quarterly GDP calculations for Germany started in 1970.

The Details

With a lockdown in place for a fair bit of the quarter this was hardly a surprise.

As a consequence of the ongoing corona pandemic and the restrictions related with it, household final consumption expenditure fell sharply by 10.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2020.

What is normally considered to be a German strength fell off the edge of a cliff as investment plunged.

Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment even dropped by as much as 19.6%.

Which made the annual picture this.

 Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment fell sharply by 27.9% after already dropped considerably by 9.5% in the 1st quarter.

Also a platoon of PhD’s from the ECB will be on their way to work out what has gone on here?

Gross fixed capital formation in construction also declined markedly (-4.2%) in the 2nd quarter, which was due in particular to the exceptionally strong 1st quarter (+5.1%).

The ECB PhD’s may be able to write a working paper describing what their bosses would consider a triumph. Or at least, something described as a triumph on the crib sheet provided to ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Gross fixed capital formation in construction, which was 1.4% higher than in the 2nd quarter of 2019, also had a supporting effect year on year.

Looking at the annual comparison it has not been a good year for net exporters.

Foreign trade fell dramatically also compared with a year earlier. Exports of goods and services fell by 22.2% (price-adjusted) in the 2nd quarter of 2020 year on year. Imports did not drop as strongly (-17.3%) over that period.

Something else which you might reasonably consider to be not very Germanic has been in play.

Only final consumption expenditure of general government had a stabilising effect; it was 1.5% higher than in the previous quarter and prevented an even larger GDP decrease………( and the annual data)  In contrast, an additional 3.8% in government final consumption expenditure prevented the economy from crashing even more.

We know that the unemployment numbers have been actively misleading in the pandemic but I note that the hours worked data gives a similar picture to GDP.

The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, declined even more sharply by 10.0% over the same period.

This had an inevitable consequence for productivity.

Labour productivity per person in employment slumped by as much as 10.2% compared with the 2nd quarter of 2019.

Savings

I thought I would pick this out as it is a clear development in the Covid era.

The relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio nearly doubled to 20.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 year on year (2nd quarter 2019: 10.2%).

Looking Ahead

This morning’s IFO release tells us this.

Sentiment among German business leaders is continuing to improve. The ifo Business Climate Index rose from 90.4 points (seasonally adjusted)  in July  to 92.6 points in August. Companies assessed their current business situation markedly more positively than last month. Their expectations were also slightly more optimistic. The German economy is on the road to recovery.

Although a somewhat different context was provided by this.

In manufacturing, the business climate improved considerably. Companies’ assessments of their current situation jumped higher. Nevertheless, many industrial companies still consider their current business to be poor. The outlook for the coming months was again more optimistic. Order books are filling once more.

That showed a welcome improvement but only to a level considered to be poor so it is hardly surprising they are optimistic relative to that. Indeed trade seems to have engaged reverse gear.

In trade, the upward trend in the business climate flattened noticeably. Companies were somewhat more satisfied with their current situation. However, their pessimism regarding the coming months was almost unchanged. In wholesale, the business climate in fact fell back.

Perhaps they are getting a little more like us in the UK as the services sector seems to be on the road to recovery.

In the service sector, the Business Climate Index rose strongly. Service providers were decidedly happier with their current business situation. Their outlook for the coming six months also improved further.

Considering the GDP numbers you might think that construction would be more upbeat.

In construction, the business climate continues to improve. Construction companies were again happier with their current situation. However, their expectations are still pessimistic, albeit less so than last month.

Comment

If we take the example below where would that leave Germany?

Germany IFO expects GDP growth of around 7% in Q3 ( DailyFX.com )

If we take the unadjusted figure of 93.46 for the second quarter then we will rise to 100 or if you prefer we will have stepped back in time to 2015. So the “Euro boom” and all the ECB backslapping will have been wiped out. The 7% economic growth recorded over the period will be ground that will have to be re-taken. That will be not so easy as we see renewed but hopefully more minor Covid-19 outbreaks in other parts of the Euro area.

I am a little unclear how @Economist_Kat gets to this.

#Germany: #ifo survey results for August are consistent with the economy moving into Boom territory.

Perhaps too much kool-aid. According to a @LiveSquawk the official view is that things can only get better.

German FinMin Scholz: Economy Developing Better Than Expected

Meanwhile official policy has the pedal to the metal with an official interest-rate for banks at -1% and two QE bond buying schemes running at once. We also have fiscal policy being deployed on a grand scale, especially for Germany. There is little scope for it to do more.

 

 

 

 

 

Where next for the economy of Spain and house prices?

We can pick up on quite a lot of what is happening economically by taking a look at Spain which has been something of a yo-yo in the credit crunch era. It was hit then began to recover then was affected by the Euro area crisis but from around 2014/15 was maybe the clearest case of the Euro boom as it posted GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth as high as 4.2% in late 2015. Since then in something of a contradiction for the policies of the ECB economic growth has slowed but nonetheless Spain was an outperformer. Indeed such that things were quiet on the usual metrics such as national debt and so on. It shows how a burst of GDP growth can change things.

Of course that was this and we are now in the eye of the economic storm of the Covid-19 pandemic. At the end of last month Spain’s official statisticians fired an opening salvo on the state of play.

The Spanish GDP registered a variation of ─5.2% in the first quarter of 2020 with respect to the previous quarter in terms of volume. This rate was 5.6 points lower than that
recorded for the fourth quarter…….. Year-on-year GDP variation of GDP stood at ─4.1%, compared with 1.8% in the previous quarter.

To be fair to them they had doubts about the numbers but felt they had a duty to at least produce some.

Today

Markit INS offered us some thoughts earlier.

Record falls in both manufacturing and service sector output ensured that the Spanish private sector overall experienced a considerable and unprecedented contraction of economic activity during April. After accounting for seasonal factors, the Composite Output Index* recorded a new low of 9.2, down from 26.7 in March.

A single-digit PMI still comes as a bit of a shock as we recall that Greece in its crisis only fell to around 30 on this measure. Here is some more detail from their report.

The sharp contraction was driven by rapid reductions in
demand and new business as widespread government
restrictions on non-essential economic activity – both
at home and abroad – weighed heavily on company
performance. There was a record reduction in composite
new business and overall workloads – as measured by
backlogs of work – during April.

We can spin that round to an estimated impact on GDP.

Allowing for a likely shift in the traditionally strong linear relationship between GDP and PMI data, we estimate the economy is currently contracting at a quarterly rate of around 7%.

They then confess to something I have pointed out before about the way they treat the Euro area.

Whilst startling enough, this figure may well prove
to be conservative, with the depth of the downturn
undoubtedly greater than anything we have ever seen
before.

For our purposes we see that a double-digit fall in GDP seems likely and even this morning’s forecasts from the European Commission are on that road.

For the year as whole, GDP is forecast to
decline by almost 9½%.

I do like the 1/2% as if any forecast is that accurate right now! One element in the detail that especially concerns me is the labour market because it had been something of a laggard in the Spanish boom phase.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise rapidly, amplifying the shock to the economy, although job losses should be partly reabsorbed as activity picks up again. However, the recovery in the labour market is expected to be slower amid high uncertainty, weak corporate balance-sheet positions, and the disproportionate impact of the
crisis on labour intensive sectors, such as retail and
hospitality.

This was the state of play at the end of March.

The unemployment rate increased 63 hundredths and stood at 14.41%. In the last 12 months, this rate decreased by 0.29 hundredths.

Actually if we note the change in the inactivity rate then the real answer was more like 16%. As Elton John would say.

It’s sad, so sad (so sad)
It’s a sad, sad situation.

This bit is like licking your finger and putting it out the window to see how fast your spaceship is travelling.

This, together with a strong positive
carry-over from the last quarters of 2020, would bring annual GDP growth to 7% in 2021, leaving
output in 2021 about 3% below its 2019 level.

Perhaps the European Commission is worried about the effect on its own income which depends on economic output in the member states and does not want to frighten the horses.

ECB

I have already pointed out that Euro area monetary policy has been out of kilter with Spain. In fact the ECB got out the punch bowl when the Spanish economy was really booming in 2015 as an annual economic growth rate of 4.2% was combined with an official interest-rate of -0.2% and then -0.3%. Oh Well! As Fleetwood Mac would say.

One area that will have benefited is the Spanish government via the way that the QE bond buying of the ECB has reduced sovereign bond yields. Thus Spain can borrow very cheaply as it has a ten-year yield of 0.86% which reflects the 271 billion Euro purchased by the ECB. This will have oiled the public expenditure wheels although this gets very little publicity as the official bodies which tend to be copied and pasted by the media have no interest in pointing it out.

Yesterday though there was something to get Lyndsey Buckingham singing.

I should run on the double
I think I’m in trouble,
I think I’m in trouble.

This was when we learnt a couple of things from the German Constitutional Court. Firstly it would appear that judges everywhere were a quite ridiculous garb. Next that they discovered something they had previously overlooked was an issue and posed questions for the ECB QE programme or at least the Bundesbank version of it. This did affect Spain as whilst it still borrows cheaply yields have risen this week.

Comment

The first context is one of sadness as the Spanish economy recovery not only grinds to a halt but engages reverse gear and at quite a rate. As an aside I wonder what those who use “output gap” style analysis are doing now? I would say they would be hoping we have forgotten that but it is like an antibiotic resistant bacteria that keeps coming back. As to 2021 I find it amazing that we have forecasts when we do not even know where we are now!

Switching to the Bank of Spain ( which operates QE in Spain on behalf of the ECB) it must be having a wry smile. I expect a Euro area version of Yes Prime Minister to play out where the German Constitutional Court ends up taking so long to act that by the the new PEPP programme is over. There is a deeper issue though about the fact that the ECB has found itself trapped in a spiders web of QE and negative interest-rates from which it has been unable to escape from.

Also an important area for Spain which will have benefited from the NIRP policy is this.

The annual rate of the Housing Price Index (HPI) in the fourth quarter of 2019 decreased one
percentage point, standing at 3.6%. This was the lowest since the first quarter of 2015.

Let me leave that as a question. What do readers think will happen next?

The Investing Channel

 

Is the Bundesbank still sure that Germany is not facing a recession?

The year so far has seen a development which has changed the economic debate especially in Europe.This is the malaise affecting the German economy which for so long has been lauded. This continued in 2017 which saw quarterly GDP growth of 1.2%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.7% giving the impression that it had returned to what had in the past been regarded as normal service. However before the trade war was a glint in President Trump’s eye and indeed before the ECB QE programme stopped things changed. As I have pointed out previously we did not know this at the time because it is only after more recent revisions that we knew 2018 opened with 0.1% and then 0.4% rather changing the theme and meaning that the subsequent -0.1% would have been less of a shock. We can put the whole situation in perspective by noting that German GDP was 106.04 at the end of 2017 and was 107.03 at the end of the third quarter this year. As Talking Heads would put it.

We’re on a road to nowhere
Come on inside
Taking that ride to nowhere
We’ll take that ride

Industrial Production

This has been a troubled area for some time as regular readers will be aware. Throughout it we have seen many in social media claim that in the detail they can see reasons for an improvement, whereas in fact things have headed further south. This morning has produced another really bad number. .

WIESBADEN – In October 2019, production in industry was down by 1.7% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In September 2019, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 0.6% from August 2019, thus confirming the provisional result published in the previous month.

If we look at the breakdown we see that the future is not bright according to those producing capital goods.

Within industry, the production of intermediate goods increased by 1.0% and the production of consumer goods by 0.3%. The production of capital goods showed a decrease by 4.4%. Outside industry, energy production was up by 2.3% in October 2019 and the production in construction decreased by 2.8%.

There is a flicker of hope from intermediate goods but consumer goods fell. There is an additional dampener from the construction data as well.

Moving to the index we see that the index set at 100 in 2015 is at 99.4 so we are seeing a decline especially compared to the peak of 107.8 in May last year. If we exclude construction from the data set the position is even worse as the index is at 97.6.

The annual comparison just compounds the gloom.

-5.3% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

Looking Ahead

Yesterday also saw bad news on the orders front.

WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in October 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.4% on the previous month.

This was a contrast to a hint of an uptick in the previous month.

For September 2019, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 1.5% compared with August 2019 (provisional: +1.3%).

If we peer into the October detail we see that this time around the problem was domestic rather than external.

Domestic orders decreased by 3.2% and foreign orders rose 1.5% in October 2019 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 11.1%, new orders from other countries decreased 4.1% compared to September 2019.

The oddity here is the surge in orders from the rest of the Euro area when we are expecting economic growth there to be very flat. If we switch to Monday’s Markit PMI then there was no sign of anything like it.

At the aggregate eurozone level, ongoing declines in
output and new orders were again recorded.

Indeed ICIS reported this in October based on the Markit survey.

Sharp declines in order book volumes weighed on operating conditions during the month, concentrated on intermediate goods producers, while consumer goods makers saw significantly milder levels of deterioration.

If we look back we see that this series has turned out to be a very good leading indicator as the peak was in November 2017 at 108.9 where 2015 = 100. Also we see that in fact it is domestic orders which have slumped the most arguing a bit against the claim that all of this is trade war driven.

The annual picture is below.

-5.5% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

Monetary Policy

This has remained extraordinarily easy but does not appear to have made any difference at all. The turn in production took place when ECB QE was still going full steam ahead for example. Indeed even those who voted for such measures seem to have lost the faith as this from yesterday’s twitter output from former Vice-president Vitor Constancio suggests.

In 2014 when the main policy rate reached zero, keeping a corridor implied a negative deposit rate. There was then a risk of deflation and it was supposed to be a temporary tool.Since last year I have been tweeting against going to deeper negative rates.

A welcome realisation but it is too late for him to change policy now.

The problem for monetary policy is that with the German ten-year yield being -0.3% and the official deposit rate being -0.5% what more can be done? It all has the feeling of the famous phrase from Newt in the film Aliens.

It wont make any difference

Fiscal Policy

The policy was explained by Reuters in late October.

Eurostat said Germany’s revenues last year exceeded expenses by more than previously estimated, allowing Berlin to post a budget surplus of 1.9% of its output, above the 1.7% that Eurostat had calculated in April.

That has been the state of play for several years now and the spending increases for next year may not change that much.

The total German state budget for next year is to be €362 billion ($399 billion), €5.6 billion more than is being spent this year. ( DW )

Although further down in the article it seems that the change may be somewhat limited.

As in previous years, and following the example of his conservative predecessor, the Social Democrat Finance Minister Scholz has pledged not to take on any more debt – maintaining Germany’s commitment to the so-called “black zero”: a balanced budget.

Some more spending may have an implicit effect on the industrial production numbers. Indeed defence spending can have a direct impact should orders by forthcoming for new frigates or tanks.

Yesterday FAZ reported that this fiscal year was more or less the same as the last.

German state is facing a significant surplus this year. All in all, revenues will exceed spending by around 50 billion euros. This is apparent from an internal template for the Stability Council meeting on 13 December. It contains the information on the state’s net lending of between € 49.5 and 56.5 billion.

Comment

There is a case here of living by the sword and perhaps then dying by it as it is what has been considered a great success for Germany which has hit the buffers last year then this. The manufacturing sector is around 23% of the economy and so the production figures have a large impact. October is only the first month of three but such weak numbers for an important area pose a question for GDP in the quarter as a whole? Rather awkwardly pay rates seem to have risen into the decline.

The third quarter saw an exceptionally strong
increase in negotiated pay rates. Including additional benefits, these rates rose year-on-year
by 4.2% in the third quarter of 2019, compared
with 2.1% in 2018. This temporary, considerably higher growth rate was mainly due to new
special payments in the metal-working and
electrical engineering industries, which had
been agreed last year and were first due in July
2019.

Before we knew the more recent data the Bundesbank was telling us this.

The slowdown of the German economy will
probably continue in the fourth quarter of
2019. However, it is not likely to intensify markedly. As things currently stand, overall economic output could more or less stagnate.
Thus, the economy would largely tread water
again in the second half of this year as a whole.

Then they left what is now looking like a hostage to fortune.

However, from today’s vantage point, there is
no reason to fear that Germany will slide into recession.

 

 

What more can the ECB do for the Euro?

Yesterday in something of a set piece event the new ECB President Christine Lagarde got out her pen to sign some banknotes and in the midst of her soaring rhetoric there were some interesting numbers.

In the euro area, banknotes are used for retail transactions more than any other means of payment. Some 79% of all transactions are carried out using cash, amounting to more than half of the total value of all payments.

So cash may no longer be king but it is still an important part of the Euro area economy. Indeed the numbers below suggest it may be an increasingly important part, perhaps driven by the fact that 0% is indeed better than the -0.5% deposit rate of the ECB.

And since their introduction, the number of euro banknotes in circulation has risen steadily, reflecting both the importance of cash in our economy and the euro’s international appeal. There are now 23 billion euro banknotes in circulation with a value of €1.26 trillion – a third of which are being used outside the euro area.

The latter reflection on use outside the Euro area is a rise because if we look elsewhere on the ECB website we are told this.

It is estimated that, in terms of value, between 20% and 25% of the euro banknotes in circulation are held outside the euro area, mainly in the neighbouring countries. The demand for euro banknotes rose steeply particularly in non-EU countries in eastern Europe when the financial crisis erupted in 2008 and national currencies depreciated against the euro.

We can figure out what was going on there as we recall the carry trade leading to mortgages and business borrowing being undertaken in Euros ( and Swiss Francs) in Eastern Europe. I guess that left some with a taste for the adventures of Stevie V.

Money talks, mmm-hmm-hmm, money talks
Dirty cash I want you, dirty cash I need you, woh-oh
Money talks, money talks
Dirty cash I want you, dirty cash I need you, woh-oh

I am not sure as to why the foreign holdings have risen so much. Some will no doubt cheer lead saying it is a sign of Euro acceptance and strength but there is the issue of notes being potentially used by money launderers and drug smugglers. The ECB is supposed to be against such criminal activity and has used that reason in its ending of production of 500 Euro notes.The circulation of them is in a gentle decline and there are now 458 million of them. The numbers of 200 Euro notes has shot higher as there were 253 million a year ago as opposed to 366 million ( and rising) now.

I did ask the ECB and they pointed me towards this.

Euro cash holdings are widespread in Albania, Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Republic of North Macedonia and Serbia. In those five countries, an average of 36% of respondents reported holding euro cash……..

That still leaves a fair bit unanswered.

Money Supply

There was some good news for the Euro area economic outlook earlier from this.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 8.4% in October from 7.9% in September.

Here we are adding some electronic money to the cash above and we can see that the upwards trend seen in 2019 has been reinstated after last month’s dip. Or if you prefer we have returned to August!

This gives an explanation of how the services sector has held up as the trade war has hit manufacturing. According to the Markit PMI surveys this is especially true in France.

Service sector growth continued to run at one of the highest
recorded over the past year.

The Euro area and the ECB should be grateful for this as according to Matkit even with the monetary growth things in this quarter are weak.

“The eurozone economy remained becalmed for a
third successive month in November, with the
lacklustre PMI indicative of GDP growing at a
quarterly rate of just 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the
third quarter.”

If we switch to the longer-term outlook we see this.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 5.6% in October 2019, unchanged from the previous month, averaging 5.6% in the three months up to October.

I think we get the idea that it is 5.6%! Anyway as we know M1 rose the wider sectors must have fallen.

The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) decreased to 0.6% in October from 1.2% in September. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) was -2.4% in October, compared with -1.1% in September.

The growth rate of 5.6% suggests a better economic outlook for 2021 and head but there is a catch which is this.

 net external assets contributed 3.0 percentage points (up from 2.8 percentage points)

The external influence has been growing over the past year or so and if we subtract it then broad money growth is a mere 2.6% and flashing a warning.

Official Surveys

Today’s releases were upbeat.

In November 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased slightly in both the euro area (by 0.5 points to
101.3) and the EU (by 0.9 points to 100.0)……Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI increased in Spain (+0.7), France and Germany (both by +0.4), while it remained virtually unchanged in Italy (-0.1) and worsened in the Netherlands (−1.0).

However there was another sign of trouble,trouble,trouble for manufacturing.

According to the bi-annual investment survey carried out in October/November this year, real investment in the
manufacturing industry in 2019 is expected to decrease by 2% in both the euro area and the EU. Compared to the
previous survey conducted in March/April this year, this represents a downward revision by 6 and 5 percentage
points for the euro area and the EU, respectively. For 2020, managers expect an increase in real investment by 1%
in both regions.

Care is needed with this series though because if you believed it wholesale Germany would be having a good year economically.

Comment

The ECB finds itself at something of a crossroads.Some elements here are simple as with a weak economy and blow target inflation then its policy easing looks justified.It does not seem to have many monetarists on board but it could easily argue that monetary growth is supporting the economy.

The more difficult elements come from how quickly it had to ease policy again as the ceasefire only lasted around ten months. This then brings into focus the question of why economic growth has been so weak? One way it is trying to answer this is provided by the way it has replaced someone who sometimes behaved like a politician with an actual one which suggests a bigger effort in this area.

“Countries with fiscal space should use it quickly, even more so when they suffer an asymmetric shock like Germany,” Villeroy told the Europlace international forum in Tokyo. “Those with high public debt should make their public finances more growth-friendly. ( Reuters)

Some of this is more French trolling of Germany but France has been more in favour of fiscal policy all along. As a side-effect by providing more bunds for the ECB to buy more fiscal policy from Germany would allow another expansion of monetary policy.

That leaves us with a curiosity that may become the equivalent of a singularity. Central banks have failed in the credit crunch era yet their importance rises and especially in the Euro area they seem to feel it is their role to dictate to politicians,

 

 

 

The mad world of negative interest-rates is on the march

Yesterday as is his want the President of the United States Donald Trump focused attention on one of our credit crunch themes.

Just finished a very good & cordial meeting at the White House with Jay Powell of the Federal Reserve. Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative interest, low inflation, easing, Dollar strength & its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.

I guess he was at the 280 character limit so replaced negative interest-rates with just negative interest. In a way this is quite extraordinary as I recall debates in the earlier part of the credit crunch where people argued that it would be illegal for the US Federal Reserve to impose negative interest-rates. But the Donald does not seem bothered as we see him increasingly warm to a theme he established at the Economic Club of New York late last week.

“Remember we are actively competing with nations that openly cut interest rates so that many are now actually getting paid when they pay off their loan, known as negative interest. Who ever heard of such a thing?” He said. “Give me some of that. Give me some of that money. I want some of that money. Our Federal Reserve doesn’t let us do it.” ( Reuters )

That day the Chair of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell rejected the concept according to CNBC.

He also rejected the idea that the Fed might one day consider negative interest rates like those in place across Europe.

The problem is that over the past year the 3 interest-rate cuts look much more driven by Trump than Powell.

Of course, there are contradictions.Why does the “best economy ever” need negative interest-rates for example? Or why a stock market which keeps hitting all-time highs needs them? But the subject keeps returning as we note yesterday’s words from the President of the Cleveland Fed.

Asked her view on negative interest rates, Mester told the audience that Europe’s use of them “is perhaps working better than I might have anticipated” but added she is not supportive of such an approach in the United States should there be a downturn.

Why say “working better” then reject the idea?  We have seen that path before.

The Euro area

As to working better then a deposit-rate of -0.5% and of course many bond yields in negative territory has seen the annual rate of economic growth fall to 1.1%. Also with the last two quarterly growth readings being only 0.2% it looks set to fall further.

So the idea of an economic boost being provided by them is struggling and relying on the counterfactual. But the catch is that such arguments are mostly made by those who think that the last interest-rate cut of 0.1% made any material difference. After all the previous interest-rate cuts that is simply amazing. Actually the moves will have different impacts across the Euro area as this from an ECB working paper points out.

A striking feature of the credit market in the euro area is the very large heterogeneity across countries in the granting of fixed versus adjustable rate mortgages.
FRMs are dominant in Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands, while ARMs are prevailing in Austria, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain (ECB, 2009; Campbell,
2012)

Actually I would be looking for data from 2019 rather than 2009 but we do get some sort of idea.

Businesses and Savers in Germany are being affected

We have got another signal of the spread of the impact of negative interest-rates .From the Irish Times.

The Bundesbank surveyed 220 lenders at the end of September – two weeks after the ECB’s cut its deposit rate from minus 0.4 to a record low of minus 0.5 per cent. In response 58 per cent of the banks said they were levying negative rates on some corporate deposits, and 23 per cent said they were doing the same for retail depositors.

There was also a strong hint that legality is an issue in this area.

“This is more difficult in the private bank business than in corporate or institutional deposits, and we don’t see an ability to adjust legal terms and conditions of our accounts on a broad-based basis,” said Mr von Moltke, adding that Deutsche was instead approaching retail clients with large deposits on an individual basis.

So perhaps more than a few accounts have legal barriers to the imposition of negative interest-rates. That idea gets some more support here.

Stephan Engels, Commerzbank’s chief financial officer, said this month that Germany’s second largest listed lender had started to approach wealthy retail customers holding deposits of more than €1 million.

Japan

The Bank of Japan has dipped its toe in the water but has always seemed nervous about doing anymore. This has been illustrated overnight.

“There is plenty of scope to deepen negative rates from the current -0.1%,” Kuroda told a semi-annual parliament testimony on monetary policy. “But I’ve never said there are no limits to how much we can deepen negative rates, or that we have unlimited means to ease policy,” he said. ( Reuters )

This is really odd because Japan took its time imposing negative interest-rates as we had seen 2 lost decades by January 2016 but it has then remained at -0.1% or the minimum amount. Mind you there is much that is crazy about Bank of Japan policy as this next bit highlights.

Kuroda also said there was still enough Japanese government bonds (JGB) left in the market for the BOJ to buy, playing down concerns its huge purchases have drained market liquidity.

After years of heavy purchases to flood markets with cash, the BOJ now owns nearly half of the JGB market.

In some ways that fact that a monetary policy activist like Governor Kuroda has not cut below -0.1% is the most revealing thing of all about negative interest-rates.

Switzerland

The Swiss found themselves players in this game when the Swiss Franc soared and they tried to control it. Now they find themselves with a central bank that combines the role of being a hedge fund due to its large overseas equity investments and has a negative interest-rate of -0.75%.

Nearly five years after the fateful day when the SNB stopped capping the Swiss Franc we get ever more deja vu from its assessments.

The situation on the foreign exchange market is still fragile, and the Swiss franc has appreciated in trade-weighted terms. It remains highly valued.

Comment

I have consistently argued that the situation regarding negative interest-rates has two factors. The first is how deep they go? The second is how long they last? I have pointed out that the latter seems to be getting ever longer and may be heading along the lines of “Too Infinity! And Beyond!”. It seems that the Swiss National Bank now agrees with me. The emphasis is mine.

This adjustment to the calculation basis takes account of the fact that the low interest rate environment around the world has recently become more entrenched and could persist for some time yet.

We have seen another signal of that recently because the main priority of the central banks is of course the precious and we see move after move to exempt the banks as far as possible from negative interest-rates. The ECB for example has introduced tiering to bring it into line with the Swiss and the Japanese although the Swiss moved again in September.

The SNB is adjusting the basis for calculating negative interest as follows. Negative interest will continue to be charged on the portion of banks’ sight deposits which exceeds a certain exemption threshold. However, this exemption threshold will now be updated monthly and
thereby reflect developments in banks’ balance sheets over time.

If only the real economy got the same consideration and courtesy. That is the crux of the matter here because so far no-one has actually exited the black hole which is negative interest-rates. The Riksbank of Sweden says that it will next month but this would be a really odd time to raise interest-rates. Also I note that the Danish central bank has its worries about pension funds if interest-rates rise.

A scenario in which interest rates go up
by 1 percentage point over a couple of days is not
implausible. Therefore, pension companies should
be prepared to manage margin requirements at
all times. If the sector is unable to obtain adequate
access to liquidity, it may be necessary to reduce the
use of derivatives.

Personally I am more bothered about the pension funds which have invested in bonds with negative yields.After all, what could go wrong?

 

 

Where will Christine Lagarde lead the ECB?

We find ourselves in a new era for monetary policy in the Euro area and it comes in two forms. The first is the way that the pause in adding to expansionary monetary policy which lasted for all of ten months is now over. It has been replaced by an extra 20 billion Euros a month of QE bond purchases and tiering of interest-rates for the banking sector. The next is the way that technocrats have been replaced by politicians as we note that not only is the President Christine Lagarde the former Finance Minister of France the Vice-President Luis de Guindos is the former Economy Minister of Spain. So much for the much vaunted independence!

Monetary Policy

In addition to the new deposit rate of -0.5% Mario Draghi’s last policy move was this.

The Governing Council decided to restart net purchases under each constituent programme of the asset purchase programme (APP), i.e. the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), the asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP), the third covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3) and the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP), at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November 2019.

It is the online equivalent of a bit of a mouthful and has had a by now familiar effect in financial markets. Regular readers will recall mt pointing out that the main impact comes before it happens and we have seen that again. If we use the German ten-year yield as our measure we saw it fall below -0.7% in August and September as hopes/expectations of QE rose but the reality of it now sees the yield at -0.3%. So bond markets have retreated after the pre-announcement hype.

As to reducing the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5% was hardly going to have much impact so let us move into the tiering which is a way of helping the banks as described by @fwred of Bank Pictet.

reduces the cost of negative rates from €8.7bn to €5.0bn (though it will increase in 2020) – creates €35bn in arbitrage opportunities for Italian banks – no signs of major disruption in repo, so far.

Oh and there will be another liquidity effort or TLTRO-III but that will be in December.

There is of course ebb and flow in financial markets but as we stand things have gone backwards except for the banks.

The Euro

If we switch to that we need to note first that the economics 101 theory that QE leads to currency depreciation has had at best a patchy credit crunch era. But over this phase we see that the Euro has weakened as its trade weighted index was 98.7 in mid-August compared to the 96.9 of yesterday. As ever the issue is complex because for example my home country the UK has seen a better phase for the UK Pound £ moving from 0.93 in early August to 0.86 now if we quote it the financial market way.

The Economy

The economic growth situation has been this.

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19…….Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.1% in the euro area in the third quarter of 2019 ( Eurostat)

As you can see annual economic growth has weakened and if we update to this morning we were told this by the Markit PMI business survey.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite
Output Index improved during October, but
remained close to the crucial 50.0 no-change mark.
The index recorded 50.6, up from 50.1 in
September and slightly better than the earlier flash
reading of 50.2, but still signalling a rate of growth
that was amongst the weakest seen in the past six and-a-half years.

As you can see there was a small improvement but that relies on you believing that the measure is accurate to 0.5 in reality. The Markit conclusion was this.

The euro area remained close to stagnation in
October, with falling order books suggesting that
risks are currently tilted towards contraction in the
fourth quarter. While the October PMI is consistent
with quarterly GDP rising by 0.1%, the forward looking data points to a possible decline in economic output in the fourth quarter.

As you can see this is not entirely hopeful because the possible 0.1% GDP growth looks set to disappear raising the risk of a contraction.

I doubt anyone will be surprised to see the sectoral breakdown.

There remained a divergence between the
manufacturing and service sectors during October.
Whereas manufacturing firms recorded a ninth
successive month of declining production, service
sector companies indicated further growth, albeit at
the second-weakest rate since January.

Retail Sales

According to Eurostat there was some good news here.

In September 2019 compared with August 2019, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19). In September 2019 compared with September 2018, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 3.1% in the euro area .

The geographical position is rather widespread from the 5.2% annual growth of Ireland to the -2.7% of Slovakia. This is an area which has been influenced by the better money supply growth figures of 2019. This has been an awkward area as they have often been a really good indicator but have been swamped this year by the trade and motor industry problems which are outside their orbit. Also the better picture may now be fading.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 7.9% in September from 8.5% in August.

In theory it should rally due to the monthly QE but in reality it is far from that simple as M1 growth picked up after the last phase of QE stopped.

Comment

As you can see there are a lot of challenges on the horizon for the ECB just at the time its leadership is most ill-equipped to deal with them. A sign of that was this from President Lagarde back in September.

“The ECB is supporting the development of such a taxonomy,” Lagarde said. “Once it is agreed, in my view it will facilitate the incorporation of environmental considerations in central bank portfolios.” ( Politico EU)

Fans of climate change policies should be upset if they look at the success record of central banks and indeed Madame Lagarde. More prosaically the ECB would be like a bull in a China shop assuming it can define them in the first place.

More recently President Lagarde made what even for her was an extraordinary speech.

There are few who have done so much for Europe, over so long a period, as you, Wolfgang.

This was for the former German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble. Was it the ongoing German current account surplus she was cheering or the heading towards a fiscal one as well? Perhaps the punishment regime for Greece?

As to the banks there were some odd rumours circulating yesterday about Deutsche Bank. We know it has a long list of problems but as far as I can tell it was no more bankrupt yesterday than a month ago. Yet there was this.

Mind you perhaps this is why Germany seems to be warming towards a European banking union…..

Helicopter Money is not the answer to our economic problems

One of the features of the credit crunch era is the way that policies which seem extraordinary have a way of coming to fruition. We have seen many examples of this in the world of monetary policy. The two headliners would be negative interest-rates and Quantitative Easing or QE bond buying. The latter had previously only been a feature of the response to the “lost decade” in Japan but is now widespread. If it had worked we would not be discussing the “lost decades” but that seems to bother only me. Also these moves are invariably badged as temporary but so far none of them have gone away. Indeed in my home country the Bank of England is currently making QE look about as permanent as it can be.

As set out in the minutes of the MPC meeting ending on 31 July 2019, the MPC has agreed to make £15.2bn of gilt purchases, financed by central bank reserves, to reinvest the cash flows associated with the maturity on 7 September 2019 of a gilt owned by the Asset Purchase Facility (APF).

It will reinvest another £1.27 billion today but it is tomorrow that will be the real example of “To Infinity! And Beyond!” when it buys long and ultra-long dated Gilts.

These themes were on my mind when I noted this in the Daily Telegraph.

A radical world of “helicopter money” – where central banks fund government spending – is “inevitable” as policymakers run out of ammunition ahead of the next recession, top economists have warned.

Central banks are likely to “explore more unconventional policies” in the next downturn and blur the lines between fiscal and monetary policy with radical new tools, such as monetary financing, Deutsche Bank argued.

Let us just mark the issue that Deutsche Bank are top economists and move on. As to the details here is the original suggestion from Milton Friedman.

Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies over this community and drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky, which is, of course, hastily collected by members of the community. Let us suppose further that everyone is convinced that this is a unique event which will never be repeated.

Those of you who follow me on social media will know that I note the daily RAF Chinook flights over Battersea as they could carry a lot of notes. Perhaps they could name them “Carney’s Cash” and “Broadbent’s Bonanza” for the occasion.

The one time this sort of thing was tried it was in fact via a tax rebate in Japan and amounted to £142 if my memory serves me correctly. However being Japanese they mostly saved it so it was not repeated. So any UK repetition of this would be different as if you look at out habits we would be likely to spend it which starts well but then of course would be likely to make our current account deficit worse. Here from this morning is a reminder of it.

The UK current account deficit narrowed by £7.9 billion to £25.2 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019, or 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Whilst it is welcome we did better the overall picture is this.

The UK has run a current account deficit in each quarter since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 1998 or, when considering annual totals, 1983.

So there is an issue although I have many doubts about the accuracy of the numbers especially when we get to investment flows. Let me give an example from the savings numbers released this morning.

The most notable recent revision was in 2017, when the previously published lowest annual saving ratio on record was revised upwards from 3.9% to 5.3%, meaning that the lowest annual saving ratio on record is now observed in 1971 where it stood at 4.8%.

If you remember the media furore at the time that is quite a big deal. Also it gets worse.

The annual households’ saving ratio in 2018 was revised upwards 1.9 percentage points to 6.1%.

Let’s us move on by noting how an emergency measure is being presented as almost normal which of course is more than familiar. We will know when they intend to begin it because we will see a phase of official denials as they get their PR spinning in first.

GDP Growth

This morning’s UK release was rather inconvenient for the monetary expansion apologists as we saw this.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by an unrevised 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019, having grown by an upwardly revised 0.6% in the first quarter of the year.

This meant that the annual rate of growth rose to 1.3% which is better than the Euro area’s 1.2%. I point this out because Michael Saunders of the Bank of England was telling us on Friday that we were in a weaker position. Also there was this.

Annual GDP growth in 2017 is now estimated at 1.9%, revised up from 1.8%,

So we move on knowing that the past was better than we thought. or if you prefer that economic growth has slowed by less than we thought.

Money Supply

There has been an improvement in recent months and here is this morning’s release from the Bank of England.

Broad money (M4ex) is a measure of the total amount of money held by households, non-financial businesses (PNFCs) and NIOFCs. In August, money holdings rose by £10.4 billion, with positive contributions from all sectors.

 

The total amount of money held by households rose by £4.6 billion in August. This was primarily due to a large increase in non-interest bearing deposits. The total amount of money held by NIOFCs rose by £3.3 billion, while the amount held by PNFCs rose by £2.5 billion.

Sorry for their love of acronyms and NIOFCs are non intermediating financial companies.

This means that the annual rate of growth for broad money is 3.3% as opposed to the 1.8% registered in May. The main changes have come in July and now August.

If we switch to M4 lending which is sometimes a useful guide then things have improved considerably as the rate of annual growth has pushed up to 5.5%. As mortgage lending remained pretty similar it has been driven by this.

Borrowing by financial companies that do not act as intermediaries, such as pension funds or insurance companies (NIOFCs), rose to £16.6 billion in August, the largest amount since monthly figures were first collected in 2009. Fund managers were the largest contributor to this strength.

Thus as so often with this sort of data ( bank lending) we are left wondering what the economic impact will be?

Consumer Credit

This continues on its merry way.

The extra amount borrowed by consumers in order to buy goods and services fell to £0.9 billion in August, slightly below the £1.0 billion average since July 2018.

The Bank of England are keen to point out this.

The annual growth rate of consumer credit continued to slow in August, falling to 5.4%. This remains considerably lower than its peak of 10.9% in November 2016, and is the lowest level since February 2014.

There are several elements of context to this. Firstly the rate of growth has been so fast it has raised the total to £218.6 billion so percentages would naturally fall. Also the weakening of the car market has contributed. Next the numbers are still much higher than anything else in the economy.

Small Business Loans

Remember when the monetary easing was supposedly for smaller businesses? Well there is a reason why that went quiet.

In contrast, the growth rate of borrowing by SMEs weakened slightly to 0.7%.

Comment

If we consider the overall situation we find several problems with helicopter money. The first is that it is supposed to be an emergency response when we keep being told we are not in an emergency but rather a recovery. It is a bit like putting an electric shock on a heart which is still beating. The next is that it would be an extraordinary move and yet again a big change would be made by unelected technocrats. This reminds me that some years ago I made the case for Bank of England policymakers to be elected. Finally it is just another way of the establishment making things easier for itself at the expense of the wider population.

This is because the wider population would be at risk of inflation and maybe much more inflation. This need not be consumer inflation as so far in the credit crunch era we have seen moves in asset prices such as bonds, equities and house prices. The latter of course allows the establishment to claim people are better off when first-time buyers are clearly worse off. Putting it another way this is why they are so resistant to putting house prices in the inflation indices and the new push to use fantasy rents suggests they fear helicopter money and negative interest-rates are on the horizon.

Podcast

 

 

 

 

 

 

What to do with a problem like Japan?

Next week on Thursday we will get the latest policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and it may well be a live meeting. With other central banks acting – and by this I mean easing policy again – there will be pressure on the Bank of Japan to maintain its relative position. But yesterday provided a catch which at the time of writing is in fact a version of Catch-22. This is because financial markets did the opposite of what Mario Draghi and the ECB wanted. At first markets went the right way and let me highlight bond markets as they digested these words from Mario Draghi at the press conference.

First of all let me start from one thing about which there was unanimous consensus, unanimity, namely that fiscal policy should become the main instrument.

This curious statement which is way beyond any central banking mandate even came with an official denial of its purpose.

they are packages not meant to finance Government deficits,

But my point is that the market move then U-Turned and bond yields rose. So for example the German bond market future fell by over 2 points from its peak. The ten-year yield rose and is now -0.51%. Next the Euro fell but then rose strongly and is now 1.108 versus the US Dollar.

Such developments will be watched closely in Tokyo with the concept of more easing leading to a stronger currency being something that would make Governor Kuroda want something a bit stronger than his morning espresso. Actually even something which is good news may have him chuntering as it reminds him of the demographics issue that Japan faces. From NHK news this morning.

Japan now has more than 70,000 centenarians, according to the health ministry. A new high has been reached every year for 49 years in a row.

The ministry says 71,238 people will be 100 or older as of September 15. That’s 1,453 more than last year………

There were only 153 centenarians when the ministry conducted its first survey in 1963. The figure surpassed 10,000 in 1998 and 50,000 in 2012.

Officials attribute the rapid rise to medical advances and campaigns to stay fit.

The ministry says it will provide support to enable elderly people to maintain their well being.

In this area economics lives up or rather down to its reputation as the dismal science as the good news above reminds us of Japan’s shrinking and ageing population.

The Banks

We rarely here these mentioned as of course the Japanese banks passed into the zombie zone some years and indeed decades ago. But The Japan Times is on the case today.

Since negative rates were introduced in 2016, Japanese bank shares have languished as their lending profitability dwindles. Nishihara estimates another rate reduction could wipe out as much as ¥500 billion ($4.6 billion) of bank profits, though lenders could make up ¥300 billion if they charge ¥1,000 per account annually.

They do not specify but they seem to be assuming Japan will match the ECB ( and its last move) and cut interest-rates from -0.1% to -0.2%. As to the making money from fees this would be especially awkward in Japan for this reason.

Such levies could help to address Japan’s unusually high number of accounts, easing costs for banks, then-central bank Deputy Gov. Hiroshi Nakaso said in 2017. There are about seven accounts per adult in Japan, the most in the world, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

I mean who cares about the people when The Precious is a factor?

Smaller Banks

These are a case of “trouble,trouble,trouble” as Taylor Swift would say.

Troubled regional banks are plunging into riskier corners of the credit markets, in a battle to survive ultralow interest rates and an industry shakeout.

A clear backfire from the QE or as we are in Japan QQE era. If you are wondering why QE became QQE in Japan think of how the leaky Windscale nuclear reprocessing plant became the leak-free Sellafield. I am just trying to remember if it was 13 or 19 versions of QE before the name change but I imagine you get the idea either way.

As to the smaller banks.

The latest case came last week. Local lenders were among the buyers of samurai bonds — those denominated in yen and issued by non-Japanese companies — sold by Export-Import Bank of India with a BBB+ rating, just three steps away from junk, that may have dissuaded the financial firms in the past. In another unconventional move last month, a few regional banks also put their money in the first negative-yielding note issued by a Japanese agency.

The title of “samurai bonds” is worrying enough in itself. Then moving into negative yielding bonds, what could go wrong?

I do enjoy the description of Japan’s face culture as “taking a more lenient view”.

Even Japan’s two major rating firms, which have tended to take a more lenient view, are sounding alarms. Downgrades and outlook cuts of regional lenders have increased to 13 so far this year at Japan Credit Rating Agency and Rating & Investment Information, the most for similar periods in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2010.

Oh and please remember when you read the quote below that the third arrow of Abenomics was supposed to be economic reform.

The government also said earlier this year that legislation will be submitted to the Diet in 2020 that will exempt regional banks from the anti-monopoly law for 10 years to facilitate mergers.

Banks are banks

It would seem that banking behaviour is the same wherever we look.

Japan Post Bank improperly sold investment trust products to elderly customers in violation of its rules in a total of some 20,000 cases, according to informed sources.

An investigation by the Japan Post Holdings Co. unit newly discovered some 2,000 cases of improper investment trust sales at 200 post offices, the sources said. Most contracts were conducted in fiscal 2018, which ended March 31.

Bank of Japan

There is often a lot of hot air about private ownership of central banks but as today’s Bank of Japan Annual Review points out, well you can see for yourself.

The Bank is capitalized at 100 million yen in accordance
with Article 8, paragraph 1 of the Act. As of the end of
March 2019, 55,008,000 yen is subscribed by the
government, and the rest by the private sector.

Some food for thought is provided by the word gearing. Why? Well the Bank of Japan has 486,523,186,968,000 Yen of Japanese Government Securities alone on its books.

Life Insurers

A problem for Japan’s life insurers is that they cannot get any interest or yield in Japan without rocketing up the risk scale. So according to Brad Setser they have been doing this.

But that changes when insurers cannot get the returns they want (or need) at home, and they start investing abroad in a quest for yield. Japanese life insurers (and for that matter Post Bank and Nochu) have looked abroad because yields at home are zero, and Japanese firms (in aggregate) don’t need to borrow.

Ah Post Bank again. How much?

For Japan, the data above shows a broader set of institutions—but the life insurers hold around $1.6 trillion, a sum that is around a third of GDP.

Comment

As you can see there are lots of questions about the financial system in Japan. That may move the Bank of Japan to copy the ECB as it notes that shares in The Precious have risen ( Deutsche Bank if up 0.25 Euros at 7.59).

Moving to the real economy it has not had such a bad 2019 so far. Whilst economic growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.3% in annualised terms in the second quarter that is still better than I though it would be. For Japan these days an annual GDP growth rate of 1% is about par for the course and is better in individual terms due to the shrinking population. But as we look ahead we see a Pacific Region which is in trouble economically and of course a Consumption Tax rise ( which impacted so heavily in 2014) is due soon. So over to you Governor Kuroda.

Oh and something I have not mentioned so far which is that the Yen is at 108.

 

 

 

The madness of central bankers

Today will depending on what time you read this either have seen yet more monetary policy accommodation by the European Central Bank or be about to get it. It;s President Mario Draghi is too smooth an operator to so strongly hint at it for nothing to happen, especially as in my opinion he feels the need to set policy for the new incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde who he knows well. That is quite a damning critique of her abilities if you think about it which is in line with her track record. But as to the action further confirmation has been provided by the way that markets have been toyed with by leaks from what are known as official “sauces”.

For those unaware the “sauces” strategy is to suggest lots of action as I pointed out on the 16th of August.

Investors currently expect the ECB to cut its key interest rate to minus 0.7% and to hold rates below their current level through 2024, according to futures markets. Mr. Rehn said those market expectations showed that investors had understood the ECB’s guidance.

Actually even this position had its own contradictions.

So will he now be overshooting -0.5% or -0.7%? Actually it gets better as -0.6% is in there now as well.

Later we get told that much less will happen as we saw earlier this week as the last thing central bankers want to see on their big day is the word “disappointment”. So we get this.

Oh, the grand old Duke of York
He had ten thousand men
He marched them up to the top of the hill
And he marched them down again
And when they were up, they were up
And when they were down, they were down
And when they were only half-way up
They were neither up nor down

The whole plan here is under the category of “open mouth operations” which might serve the purposes of the ECB but anyone in the real economy is being actively misled. The only saving grace is that most people will be unaware but there have been real world effects on mortgage rates and the rates at which companies and countries can borrow.

Where are we now?

Joumanna Bercetche of CNBC has summarised the expected position.

Here’s what analysts are expecting:
1) Majority expect 10bps rate cut to -50bps (minority 20bps cut)
2) Tiering
3) Restart of Asset Purchases : sov +corp bonds of EUR 30bn x 12 months (risk of LESS given recent hawkish commentary)
4) Enhanced Fwd Guidance

Interest-Rates

Let us address this as it clearly fails Einstein’s definition of madness. As to doing the same thing and expecting a different result well how about cutting interest-rates by 0.1% four times as has happened to the Deposit Rate and then adding a fifth! Or adding another 0.1% ( or even 0.2%) to a sequence of cuts amounting to 3.65% so far and expecting a different result.

Oh and I see more than a few saying the ECB interest-rate is 0% as indeed one of its interest-rates is. However I use the Deposit Rate because the amount of money deposited with the ECB at this rate is some 1.9 trillion Euros.

Next there was a stage where the madness went even further and we were told that shifting the differences between the various ECB interest-rates was a big deal. For example the minimum lending rate has fallen by 4% so 0.35% more than the Deposit Rate. This has an influence for financial markets but little or no impact on the real economy.

It all seems rather small fry compared to this from President Trump.

The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet………The USA should always be paying the the lowest rate. No Inflation! It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”

The problem for the Donald is that if negative interest-rates were any sort of magic elixir we would not be where we are.Sadly the ECB proves this as it ends up having to keep cutting to keep up what I have previously described as a type of junkie culture.

On the upside the “once in a lifetime” reference may mean he is also a Talking Heads fan.

Tiering

This is another sign of central banking madness where their policies are essentially always aimed at the banks. The interest-rate cuts and QE were to help bail them out but went so far that they now hurt the banks. For newer readers this is because the banks are afraid to pass on the negative interest-rates to ordinary depositors in case they withdraw their money.

So we seem likely to see an effort to shield the banks by some of their deposits at the ECB not having the full negative rate applied. The real economy gets no such sweetners.

Again if the policy of protecting “The Precious” worked these new policies would not be necessary would they?

QE

Exactly the same critique applies here. Up until now some 2.6 trillion Euros of bonds has been bought for monetary policy purposes or Quantitative Easing. So what difference will another 360 billion Euros make? Especially if we remind ourselves that the original programme only ended last December so even fans of it have to admit the sugar high went pretty fast.

There is a subtler argument here which is that the ECB is really oiling the wheels of fiscal policy by making debt cheap to issue for Euro area nations. But what difference has this made? Some maybe at the margins but the basic case of Germany is a fail. In spite of its ability to be paid to issue debt Germany still plans to run a fiscal surplus.

Enhanced Forward Guidance

in 2019 this led many ECB watchers to expect an interest-rate rise and instead we are getting a cut. I am not sure how you could enhance this unless they expect to do even worse!

Comment

My critique has so far looked mostly at the ECB but whilst in some areas it is the leader of the pack there are plenty of other signs of madness. After two “lost decades” the Bank of Japan cut interest-rates by 0.1% to -0.1%. Then it introduced Yield Curve Control which in recent times has been raising bond yields rather than cutting them in a complete misfire. In my home country the UK we saw the Bank of England plan to cut interest-rates by 0.15% in November 2016 before fortunately realising that it had misjudged the economy and abandoning the plan. They end up singing along with Genesis.

You know I want to, but I’m in too deep…

As to the situation the immediate one is grim as this from Eurostat today reminds us.

In July 2019 compared with July 2018, industrial production decreased by 2.0% in the euro area.

But this is a “trade war” issue which has very little to do with monetary policy. As to the domestic impulse the money supply figures have picked up in 2019 so the ECB may be easing at exactly the wrong moment just as it turned out it ended easing at the wrong moment. So let me end with the nutty boys.

Madness, madness, they call it madness
Madness, madness, they call it madness
It’s plain to see
That is what they mean to me
Madness, madness, they call it gladness, ha-ha

Number Crunching

This tweet has gained popularity.

“£4,563,350,000 of aggregate short positions on a ‘no deal’ Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign” ( Carole Cadwalladr)

I took a look at the article referred to in the Byline Times and if you read it then it conflates being short the UK Pound £ with being short individual shares which is bizarre. Next it has no mention at all of any long positions these companies may have.