UK hours worked have fallen 12% since the Covid-19 pandemic began

This morning has brought the focus back on the UK and the labour market release has brought some better news. Sadly the unemployment numbers are meaningless right now so we need to switch to the hours worked data for any realistic view.

Between April to June 2020 and July to September 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK saw a record increase of 83.1 million, or 9.9%, to 925.0 million hours.

Average actual weekly hours worked saw a record increase of 2.7 hours on the quarter to 28.5 hours.

This is our first real look at a fullish set of data for the third quarter as we do not get the Gross Domestic Product or GDP numbers until Thursday. Will they also show a bounce of around 10%? Our official statisticians seem to have lost a bit of faith in their own figures as they quote the Markit PMI as back up.

The IHS Markit states that the recovery in business activity, which continued across the manufacturing and service sectors in September 2020, reflects the record increase in total hours worked on the quarter to September.

Perhaps they are unaware of the reduction in credibility for that series. However we can sweep this section up by noting that whilst we have much better news we are in a situation described by Foreigner.

But I’m a long, long way from home

That is because the numbers are still 12% below the pre pandemic peak of 1,052.2 million hours.

Redundancies

We had feared a rise in these, and sadly they have been coming.

Redundancies increased in July to September 2020 by 195,000 on the year, and a record 181,000 on the quarter, to a record high of 314,000 (Figure 3). The annual increase was the largest since February to April 2009.

In terms of what they tell us? We have an issue because we were seeing rises ahead of the further wind down and then end of the Furlough scheme which then saw a U-Turn extension to March. So much for another form of Forward Guidance. So the real message here is somewhat confused.

Using the tax system

This is a new innovation designed to give more timely data and to that extent it helps as we get a signal for October.

Early estimates for October 2020 indicate that the number of payrolled employees fell by 2.6% compared with October 2019, which is a fall of 763,000 employees……..In October 2020, 33,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment when compared with September 2020 and 782,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment when compared with March 2020.

These numbers have proved useful for a direction of travel but again due to the furlough scheme are much too low in scale. Also the wages numbers are best filed in the recycling bin.

Early estimates for October 2020 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 4.6%, compared with the same period of the previous year.

What they are most likely telling us in that job losses have been concentrated in the lower paid which has skewed the series.

Unemployment

Sadly the BBC seems not to be aware that these numbers are way of the mark and so are actively misleading.

The UK’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to September, up from 4.5%, as coronavirus continued to hit the jobs market.

The reason for that is the furlough scheme.

Experimental estimates based on returns for individual weeks show that the number of people temporarily away from work rose to around 7.9 million people in April 2020 but has fallen to around 3.9 million people in September 2020. There were also around 210,000 people away from work because of the pandemic and receiving no pay in September 2020; this has fallen from around 658,000 in April 2020.

Following international guidelines has led us up the garden path.

Under this definition, employment includes both those who are in work during the reference period and those who are temporarily away from a job.

Wages

We can now switch to the price of labour where according to out official statisticians there has also been some better news.

Annual growth in employee pay continued to strengthen as more employees returned to work from furlough, but pay growth was still subdued as some workers remained furloughed and employers were paying less in bonuses…..Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees for the three months July to September 2020 increased to 1.3%, and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) increased to 1.9%.

As you can see below there were hard times still for some sectors.

During the early summer months, the industry sectors accommodation and food services and construction had seen the largest falls in pay, down more than 10% in April to June; in July to September, both recovered some loss although their average total pay growth remained down, at negative 1.8% and negative 3.9% respectively.

Actually the construction numbers seem curious as in my part of London it all seems to have got going again, but as ever London may not be a good guide.

We can see who is doing relatively well by switching to the most recent single month numbers which are for September. Here we see public-sector total pay was up 4.4% on a year ago. Also that the services sector has risen to 3,5%. Switching to manufacturing we see that annual growth has finally become positive but is at a mere 0.6%.

The improvement has followed through into the real wages data at least according to the Office for National Statistics.

In real terms, total pay in July to September grew at a faster rate than inflation, at positive 0.5%, and regular pay growth in real terms was also positive, at 1.2%.

In terms of actual pay those numbers mean this.

For September 2020, average total pay, before tax and other deductions, for employees in Great Britain was estimated at £553 per week in nominal terms. When expressed in real terms (constant 2015 prices), the figure in September 2020 was £509 per week, notably higher than the £488 per week estimated in June 2020.

It may be notably higher than June but is still below the pre credit crunch peak of £522 for the constant price series from February 2008. Actually that number looks a bit of a freak or more formally an outlier but even if we discount it we are still below some of the others from around then.

Comment

We find ourselves again mulling the way that conventional economic metrics have failed us. To be specific we see that underemployment measures are much more useful that unemployment ones as a 12% fall in hours worked gives a much more realistic picture than a 4.8% unemployment rate. In the short-term the improvement in the situation will clash with the November lock down and thus get worse. Although with the Hopium provided by the positive vaccine news from Pfizer there are now more realistic hopes for a better 2021.

Switching to the wages numbers I think there is a compositional effect making them also unreliable or rather more unreliable than usual. We even have an official denial to confirm this.

 that is, if the profile (percentage within each industry) of employee jobs had not changed between July to September 2019 and July to September 2020, the estimates of growth in total pay and regular pay would have been 0.1% lower than reported in this bulletin.

In my opinion the numbers are not accurate enough to claim that. So we know more but much less than some try to claim.

By the way those pushing the 4.8%  unemployment rate ( and thereby believing it) surely they should be pushing for the Bank of England to raise interest-rates as it is well below the levels it was supposed to?

 

UK labour market data confirm that we are in an economic depression

Today has brought news that adds to my contention that the UK is experiencing an economic depression right now. We have to look deeper than the conventional signals because tight now some of them are not working. For example the official unemployment definition set by the International Labor Organisation or ILO is missing the target by quite a lot. To use a football analogy if they took a shot at goal they not only miss it but they miss the stand as well. This is why.

Under this definition, employment includes both those who are in work during the reference period and those who are temporarily away from a job. The number of people who are estimated to be temporarily away from work includes furloughed workers, those on maternity or paternity leave and annual leave.

As we stand that covers approximately an extra 4 million people which is a huge number compared to what are being reported as unemployed as you can see below.

Estimates for June to August 2020 show an estimated 1.52 million people were unemployed, 209,000 more than a year earlier and 138,000 more than the previous quarter.

This can be misleading for the unwary and I note that the BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam has failed to note this development.

Sharp spike up in unemployment rate to 4.5%, above 1.5 million, after revisions and the headline numbers finally catching up with grim reality. Suggests monthly number in August as furlough unwound around 5%.

If you actually think the UK unemployment rate is either 4.5% or 5% then I have a bridge to sell you. Poor old Faisal looks completely lost at sea.

Unemployment still low by historic (3 year high) and international standards – but on way up…

It is in reality as I shall explain high but recently has fallen so he is wrong in every respect.

Hours Worked

The actual signal of a depression in the UK labour market is provided here which looks through the issue of the furlough scheme muddying the waters. Let us start with the better part of it which shows a post lockdown ( which just in case we should now call Lockdown 1.0) improvement.

Between March to May 2020 and June to August 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK saw a record increase of 20.0 million, or 2.3%, to 891.0 million hours. Average actual weekly hours worked saw a record increase of 0.7 hours on the quarter to 27.3 hours.

However the overall picture is of a 15% fall in hours worked. Because is we look back to this time last year ( June to August for this purpose) the number of hours worked was 1.049.2 million. Sadly we get little detail on what is the most significant number right now and the maths is mine. The bit below hides more than it reveals.

Although decreasing over the year, total hours worked had a record increase on the quarter, with the June to August period covering a time when a number of coronavirus lockdown measures were eased.

Redundancies

These provide another clear signal as we note this.

Redundancies increased in June to August 2020 by 113,000 on the year, and a record 114,000 on the quarter, to 227,000. The annual increase was the largest since April to June 2009, with the number of redundancies reaching its highest level since May to July 2009.

So in round terms the rate of redundancies has doubled. There is also a hint that things are also getting worse.

The redundancies estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews; it does not take into consideration planned redundancies.

Pay as You Earn ( PAYE)

The tax data gives us another insight.

Early estimates for September 2020 indicate that there were 28.3 million payrolled employees, a fall of 2.2% compared with the same period in the previous year and a decline of 629,000 people over the 12-month period. Compared with the previous month, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.1% in September 2020 – equivalent to 20,000 people.

As you can see these numbers are much more timely than the other labour market data which only reach March. It also shows much more of a change than the unemployment numbers but is still undermined somewhat by the existence of the furlough scheme. There will be payrolled employees who are being subsidised by the furlough scheme until the end of October.

Wages

These are giving the same signal as we note this.

In June to August 2020, the rate of annual pay growth was unchanged for total pay but positive 0.8% for regular pay. The difference between the two measures is because of subdued bonuses, which fell by an average negative 15.3% (in nominal terms) in the three months June to August 2020.

So pay growth is no longer negative as we note an unsurprising divergence between regular pay and bonuses. This compares to where we were pre pandemic as shown below.

The rate of growth stood at 2.9% in December 2019 to February 2020 immediately prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic,

We saw wages fall and now they are flatlining. This means that in real terms they are doing this according to the official release.

In real terms, total pay is growing at a slower rate than inflation, at negative 0.8%. Regular pay growth in real terms is now positive, at 0.1%.

So if we use a better inflation measure we see that real wages are falling by a bit more than 1% per annum. This means we are even further below the pre credit crunch peak as we note that this measure has experienced its own version of a Japanese style lost decade.

The aggregate numbers hide a few things as we note some substantial shifts within them.

The public sector saw the highest estimated growth, at 4.1% for regular pay. Negative growth was seen in the construction sector, estimated at negative 5.3%, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector, estimated at negative 1.8%, and the manufacturing sector, estimated at negative 0.9%. This is, however, an improvement over the growth rates during May to July 2020.

We can learn more from the August data if we look at it as a single month. This is because wages rose from £531 per week to £550 meaning that they were 1.9% higher than a year before. A fair bit of this was the finance sector which saw weekly wages rise by £32 to £721. However there was also welcome news for construction up by £12 to £631 and the hospitality sector where they rose £8 to £364 per week.

Comment

Looking at properly today’s UK labour market release confirms the prognosis of the economic growth or GDP release from Friday. It is not that we lack some green shoots as the August wage data is one and this from the PAYE numbers adds to it albeit is too good to be true right now.

Early estimates for September 2020 indicate that median monthly pay increased to £1,905, an increase of 4.3% compared with the same period of the previous year.

But on the other side of the coin the annual fall in hours worked correlates with the decline in GDP we have seen pretty well. I hope that we can get through this more quickly than in the past but the reality is that these are falls of a size which indicate an economic depression. If reality is too much then you can take a Matrix style blue pill and follow the BBC reporting a 4.5% unemployment rate.

As a caveat all of these numbers are subject to wider margins of error right now. You may be surprised how few are surveyed for the main data source

One key data source for understanding the UK labour market is the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which usually covers around 35,000 households a quarter.

At the moment that will be less representative because in switching to a telephone based system they discovered a change that seems too big to be true.

Back in February around 67 per cent of households in their first interview in the LFS sample were owner occupiers and 32 per cent were renters. But in July this was around 77 per cent and 21 per cent respectively……… For tomorrow’s release we will therefore reweight the estimates so that the shares of owner occupiers and renters are the same as before the pandemic hit in March.

 

 

 

The UK underemployment rate rose as high as 18%

At a time of great uncertainty and not a little worry for many we should be able to turn to official statistics for at least a benchmark. Sadly the Covid-19 pandemic has found them to be wanting in many respects. Let me illustrate this with an example from the BBC.

The UK unemployment rate has risen to its highest level for two years, official figures show.

The unemployment rate grew to 4.1% in the three months to July, compared with 3.9% previously.

There are all sorts of problems with this right now which essentially come from the definition.

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

During this period many will not bother to look for work as for example some think they still have a job.

Last month, we reported on a group of employees who, because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, have reported that they are temporarily away from work and not getting paid. Similarly, there is a group of self-employed people who are temporarily away from work but not eligible for the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS). Although these people consider themselves to have a job and therefore are consistent with the ILO definition of employment, their lack of income means that they may soon need to look for work unless they are able to return to their job.

A sort of job illusion for some with the problem being is how many? I would like all of them to return to their jobs but also know they will not. The concept though can be widened if we add in the furlough scheme which was designed to save jobs but as a by product has driven a bus through the employment and unemployment data.

The number of people who are estimated to be temporarily away from work (including furloughed workers) has fallen, but it was still more than 5 million in July 2020, with over 2.5 million of these being away for three months or more. There were also around 250,000 people away from work because of the pandemic and receiving no pay in July 2020.

So we are unsure about 5 million workers which dwarfs this.

Estimates for May to July 2020 show an estimated 1.40 million people were unemployed, 104,000 more than a year earlier and 62,000 more than the previous quarter.

So we see that the number is simply way too low which means that all of the estimates below are at best misleading and in the case of the employment rate outright laughable.

the estimated employment rate for all people was 76.5%; this is 0.4 percentage points up on the year and 0.1 percentage points up on the quarter…….the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 4.1%; this is 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter…….the estimated economic inactivity rate for all people was 20.2%, a joint record low; this is down by 0.6 percentage points on the year and down by 0.3 percentage points on the quarter

The economic inactivity measure is perhaps the worst because the worst level of inactivity in my lifetime is being recorded as a record low. This embarrasses the Office for National Statistics as we are in “tractor production is rising” territory.

What can we use?

A measure which is working pretty well seems to be this.

Between February to April 2020 and May to July 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by 93.9 million to 866.0 million hours. Average actual weekly hours fell by 2.8 hours on the quarter to 26.3 hours.

This shows a much larger change than that suggested by the official unemployment measure. We can in fact learn more by looking further back.

Over the year, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by 183.8 million to 866.0 million hours in the three months to July 2020. Over the same period, average actual weekly hours fell by 5.8 hours to 26.3 hours.

On this measure we see that if we put this into the employment numbers we would see a fall approaching 6 million. So in effect the underemployment rate was in fact heading for 18%. If we simply assume that half of it was unemployment we have an unemployment rate of 11% which in economic terms I am sure we did. Now the economy is more open perhaps it is 7-8%.

The 8% unemployment rate does get some support from this.

Between July 2020 and August 2020, the Claimant Count increased by 73,700 (2.8%) to 2.7 million (Figure 10). Since March 2020, the Claimant Count has increased by 120.8% or 1.5 million.

It is hard not to have a wry smile as I type that because back in the mid 1980s Jim Hacker in Yes Minister told us nobody believes the unemployment figures and those are the one he was referring to. There are other references to that sort of thing as well.

Hacker: The school leaving age was raised to 16 so that they could learn more, and they’re learning less!

Sir Humphrey: We didn’t raise it to enable them to learn more! We raised it to keep teenagers off the job market and hold down the unemployment figures.

Pay

The opening salvo is less than reassuring.

The rate of decline in employee pay growth slowed in July 2020 following strong falls in the previous three months;

We find that the pattern is what we would be expecting.

Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees was negative 1.0% in May to July, with annual growth in bonus payments at negative 21.4%; however, regular pay (excluding bonuses) was positive at 0.2%.

It has been the public sector which has stopped the numbers being even worse.

Between May to July 2019 and May to July 2020, average pay growth varied by industry sector . The public sector saw the highest estimated growth, at 4.5% for regular pay. Negative growth was seen in the construction sector, estimated at negative 7.5%, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector, estimated at negative 3.2%, and the manufacturing sector, estimated at negative 1.7%.

However there was an improvement for many in July.

 For the construction, manufacturing, and the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sectors, the July 2020 estimate of annual growth shows sign of improvement when compared with May to July 2020.

If we look at the construction sector then weekly wages rose from £573 in June to £620 in July so there was quite a pick-up of which £10 was bonuses.

Switching to an estimate of real pay we are told this.

In real terms, total pay growth for May to July was negative 1.8% (that is, nominal total pay grew more slowly than inflation); regular pay growth was negative 0.7%.

Although those numbers rely on you believing the inflation numbers which I do not.

Comment

We have found that the official ILO ( International Labor Organisation) methodology to have failed us in this pandemic. Even worse no effort has been made to fix something we have been noting ( in this instance looking at Italy) since the third of June.

and unemployment sharply fell

If you actually believe unemployment fell in Italy in April I not only have a bridge to sell you I may as well sell the river as well.

Looking at the data suggests an underemployment rate of the order of 20% in the UK giving us an actual unemployment rate perhaps double the recorded figure.

If we switch to pay and wages we need to remind ourselves of those who are not counted. For example the self-employed and companies with less than ten employees. Such omissions did not bother the Dr.Martin Weale review back in the day but perhaps one of the ONS Fellows could help like er Dr.Martin Weale. We are back to reliving Yes Minister again.

Meanwhile according to Financial News some are resorting to desperate measures to get GDP rising again.

‘It could get really messy’: Finance workers’ cocaine use spikes in lockdown

Wages growth looks an increasing problem

Today gives us an opportunity to take a look at an issue which has dogged the credit crunch era. It is the (lack of) growth in wages and in particular real wages which has meant that even before the Covid-19 pandemic they had not regained the previous peak. That is one of the definitions of an economic depression which may well be taking a further turn for the worse. It has been a feature also of the lost decade(s) in Japan so we have another Turning Japanese flavour to this.

Japan

The Ministry of Labor released the July data earlier and here is how NHK News reported it.

New figures from the Japanese government show that both wages and household spending fell in July from a year earlier amid a resurgence in the coronavirus pandemic.

Labor ministry data show that average total wages were down 1.3 percent in yen terms from a year ago, to 3,480 dollars. It was the fourth straight monthly drop.

Overtime and other non-regular pay dropped nearly 17 percent, as workers put in shorter hours.

A ministry official says that despite some improvements, the situation remains serious because of the pandemic.

I find it curious that NHK switches from Yen to US Dollars but I suppose it has not been that volatile in broad terns in recent times. That is awkward for the Abenomics policy of Prime Minister Abe which of course may be on the way out. It was supposed to produce a falling Yen. Also it was supposed to produce higher wages which as you can see are falling.

The issue here is summarised by Japan Macro Advisers.

Wages in Japan have been decreasing relatively steadily since 1998. Between 1997-2019, wages have declined by 10.9%, or by 0.5% per year on average (based on the data before the revision).

The Abenomics push was another disappointment as summarised by this from The Japan Times in May 2019.

Japan’s labor market has achieved full employment over the past two years. Unemployment has declined over the past two years to below 3 percent—close to the levels of the 1980s and early 1990s—after peaking at 5.4 percent in 2012…………..The puzzling thing is why wage growth has been so sluggish despite the apparent labor shortage. It is true that average wages turned positive in 2014 and increased 1.4 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, regular pay, or permanent income, rose a paltry 0.8 percent in 2018. In real terms, average wage growth has failed to take off and recorded just 0.2 percent in 2018.

That is in fact a rather optimistic view of it all because if we switch to real wages we see that the index set at 100 in 2015 was 99.9 last year. So rather than the triumph which many financial news services have regularly anticipated it has turned out to be something of a road to nowhere. Any believers in “output gap” theories have to ignore the real world one more time.

The Japanese owned Financial Times has put its own spin on it.

“Buy my Abenomics!” urged Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2013. And we did.

No we did not. Anyway their story of triumph which unsurprisingly has quite a list of failures also notes this about wages.

Nor was this the only way Abenomics undermined its own credibility. For example, the government never raised public sector wages in line with the 2 per cent inflation target. Why, then, should the private sector have heeded Mr Abe’s demand for wage increases?

If only places like the FT had reported that along the way. But the real issue here for our purposes is that even in what were supposed to be good times real wages went nowhere. So now we are in much rougher times we see a year where they fall and we note that this adds to a fall last year. Indeed partly by fluke the fall for July is very similar to last year, but we look ahead nervously because if wages had already turned down we seem set for falls again.

Detail

In terms of numbers average pay was 369.551 Yen in July and a fair bit or 106.608 Yen is bonuses ( special cash earnings). The highest paid is the professional and technical one at 542,571 and the lowest is hotels and restaurants at 124,707 Yen. Sadly for the latter not only do they get relatively little it is also falling ( 7.3%)

Somewhat chilling is that not only is the real estare sector well paid at 481.373 Yen it is up 12.3% driven by bonuses some 30% higher. So maybe they are turning British. Also any improvement in the numbers relies on real estate bonuses.

The UK

The latest real wage numbers pose a question.

For June 2020, average regular pay, before tax and other deductions, for employees in Great Britain was estimated at £504 per week in nominal terms. The figure in real terms (constant 2015 prices) fell to £465 per week in June, after reaching £473 per week in December 2019, with pay in real terms back at the same level as it was in December 2018.

The real pay number started this century at £403 per week but the pattern is revealing as we made £473 per week on occasion in 2007 and 2008. So we were doing well and that ended.

Actually if we switch from the Office for National Statistics presentation we have lost ground since 2008. This is because the have flattered the numbers in two respects. One if the choice of regular pay rather than total pay and the other is the choice of the imputed rent driven CPIH inflation measure that is so widely ignored.

The US

There was something of a curiosity here on Friday.

In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11
cents to $29.47. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory
employees increased by 18 cents to $24.81, following a decrease of 10 cents in the prior month.

If you do not believe tat then you are in good company as neither does the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The large employment fluctuations over the past several months–especially in industries with
lower-paid workers–complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.

If we look back this from the World Economic Forum speaks for itself.

today’s wages in the United States are at a historically high level with average hourly earnings in March 2019 amounting to $23.24 in 2019 dollars. Coincidentally that matches the longtime peak of March 1974, when hourly wages adjusted to 2019 dollars amounted to exactly the same sum.

Comment

There has been an issue with real wages for a while as the US, UK and Japanese data illustrate.The US data aims right at the end of the Gold Standard and Bretton Woods doesn’t it? That begs more than a few questions. But with economies lurching lower as we see Japanese GDP growth being confirmed at around 8% in the second quarter and the Euro area at around 12%. Also forecasts of pick-ups are colliding with new Covid-19 issues such as travel bans and quarantines. So real wages look set to decline again.

The next issue is how we measure this? The numbers have been shown to be flawed as they do not provide context. What I mean by this is that we need numbers for if you stay in the same job and ones for those switching. If we look at the US we see recorded wage growth because those already having the disadvantage of lower wages not have none at all as they have lost their job. That is worse and not better. This opens out a wider issue where switches to lower paid jobs and lower real wages are like a double-edged sword. People have a job giving us pre pandemic low unemployment rates and high employment rates. But I would want a breakdown as many have done well but new entrants have not.

There has been a contrary move which has not been well measured which are services in the modern era which get heavy use but do not get counted in this because they are free. Some money may get picked up by advertising spend but to add to the problem we have we are also guilty of measuring it badly

UK wages are falling in both real and nominal terms

It is the UK that is in the economic spotlight this morning as we look to dig some insight out of the labour market figures. Many of the usual metrics are failing us as we have looked at originally with reference to Italy, but some are working. The best guide we get to the fall in employment comes from this.

Between January to March 2020 and April to June 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by a record 191.3 million, or 18.4%, to 849.3 million hours.

This compares to 16.7% or 877.1 million hours last month. So as you might expect the rate of change has slowed quite a bit as lockdown began to be eased but we are still falling.In terms of context there is this.

This was the largest quarterly decrease since estimates began in 1971, with total hours dropping to its lowest level since September to November 1994. Average actual weekly hours fell by a record 5.6 hours on the quarter to a record low of 25.8 hours.

The weekly numbers have dipped further too as they were 26.6 hours last month.

If we look at the annual picture for more perspective we see that whilst the vast majority of the change is “right here, right now” as Fatboy Slim put it we can see that the economy was hardly flying before the Covid-19 pandemic. Although in something of an irony I suppose there were phases where productivity was better.

As to the sector worst hit there is no great surprise.

The accommodation and food service activities industrial sector saw the biggest annual fall in average actual weekly hours, down 15.4 hours to a record low of 13.0 hours per week.

The Office for National Statistics has been trying to do a weekly breakdown which tells us this.

During May we saw average actual hours start to increase slowly for the self-employed, however this increase has slowed down and hours remained relatively flat throughout June.

Here it is in graphical format.

So we learn a little but this only takes us to the end of June.

Falling Wages

The opening salvo warns us that there is trouble ahead.

Employee pay growth declined further in June following falls in April and May; growth has been affected by lower pay for furloughed employees since March, and reduced bonuses; nominal regular pay growth for April to June 2020 is negative for the first time since records began in 2001.

Firstly records did not begin in 2001 as it is rather disappointing to see an official body like the ONS reporting that. As I shall explain later their certainly were records as how could we have seen the wages and prices spiral of the late 1970s? What they mean is that they changed the way they record the numbers.

Returning to now the main impact is below.

Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees declined in April to June to negative 1.2%, with annual growth in bonus payments at negative 19.4%; regular pay (excluding bonuses) slowed to negative 0.2%.

So wages are falling and we can add to that a worse picture for June itself.

Single-month growth in average weekly earnings for June 2020 was negative 1.5% for total pay and negative 0.3% for regular pay.

In terms of sectors we are told this.

For the sectors of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants, and construction, where the highest percentage of employees returned to work from furlough, there is a slight improvement in pay growth for June 2020 compared with April and May; weaker pay growth in some higher-paying sectors negates this at whole economy level.

If we stay with the June figures then as you might well have suspected it is a much better time to be in the public-sector with wages growth of 4.2% than in the private-sector where it was -2.9% on a year before. The worst sector is construction where wages in June were 9% worse than a year ago. It is also true that there are some hints of improvement as the hospitality sector mentioned above went from -7% in May to -4% in June and construction had been -11%.

Real Wages

My usual caveat is that the official inflation measure is woeful due to its use of Imputed Rents and to that we need to add that somewhere around 20% of the inflation data has not been collected due to the pandemic. Indeed the official house price data series was suspended as after all who is interested in that? But what we have is this.

In real terms, pay is now growing at a slower rate than inflation, at negative 2.0% for total pay, the lowest rate since January to March 2012. Regular pay growth in real terms is also negative, at negative 1.0%. The difference between the two measures is because of subdued bonuses, which fell by an average negative 19.4% (in nominal terms) in the three months April to June 2020.

Or if you prefer it in monetary terms.

For June 2020, average regular pay, before tax and other deductions, for employees in Great Britain was estimated at £504 per week in nominal terms. The figure in real terms (constant 2015 prices) fell to £465 per week in June, after reaching £473 per week in December 2019, with pay in real terms back at the same level as it was in December 2018.

As ever they seem to have had amnesia about the total wage series where at 2015 prices we see a weekly wage of £489 in June which compares to £502 for most of the end of last year and the beginning of this. It was last at that level in May 2018. On the positive side we saw a drop in wages but the last three months have been the same ( within £1 in both series). However the negative view is that total wage growth since 2015 is now 1.3%

Employment and Unemployment

The furlough scheme has made these of little use.

A large number of people are estimated to be temporarily away from work, including furloughed workers; approximately 7.5 million in June 2020 with over 3 million of these being away for three months or more.

Unless of course you actually believe this.

the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 3.9%; this is largely unchanged on both the year and the quarter

If so perhaps you will let us know the other five.

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” ( Alice In Wonderland)

Comment

The wages numbers tell a story but is it a truthful one? If we stay with it there is a problem highlighted by this from the LSE blog in 2015.

Figure 1 shows that median real wages grew consistently by around 2 per cent per year from 1980 to the early 2000s. There was then something of a slowdown, after which real wages fell dramatically when the economic downturn started in 2008. Since then, real wages of the median worker have fallen by around 8-10 per cent (depending on which measure of inflation is used as a deflator – the consumer price index, CPI, or the housing cost augmented version CPIH). This corresponds to almost a 20 per cent drop relative to the trend in real wage growth from 1980 to the early 2000s.

I have left the inflation measures in as by now all regular readers will be aware that things will be worse using the RPI which is why they have tried and failed to scrap it and are now trying to neuter it. So now the drop is over 25%.

The cautionary note is that the official wages series can be heavily affected by changes in composition or what we are obviously seeing right now. Rather bizarrely we are officially told this is not happening. Meanwhile the series based on taxes ( PAYE) is more optimistic.

Median monthly pay increased by 1.1% in June 2020, compared with the same period of the previous year.

Maybe there is an influence going from average to median but I suspect that it is those not paying taxes it is badly missing here. Such as it is I think we do get something from the improvement for July.

Early estimates for July 2020 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 2.5%, compared with the same period of the previous year.

So overall in terms of real pay it seems we are going to have to wait some time for Maxine Nightingale.

Ooh, and it’s alright and it’s coming along
We gotta get right back to where we started from
Love is good, love can be strong
We gotta get right back to where started from.

The Investing Channel

 

 

 

UK Wages are falling again as we go back in time to 2006

The pace of UK economic data releases is relentless at this time of the month as we have several “theme” days. Officially they are to highlight areas but in fact the role is to hope that any bad data is quickly replaced by good and also to swamp us with too much information. For example UK trade is worth a day on its own but rather conveniently tends to get ignored on GDP day. This morning brings the labour market which is in crisis and I shall first look at the numbers which are providing some insight and then move onto the ones which are failing us.

Wages

We have been both fearing and expecting  a drop here and sadly that has arrived.

Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees slowed sharply in March to May to be negative (at negative 0.3%) for the first time since April to June 2014; regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) slowed to 0.7%.

As you can see total pay has been dragged into negative territory by quite a plunge in bonuses, which is hardly a surprise in the circumstances. This means that those who concentrate on regular pay are missing the bus. Whereas we note that bonuses have gone -2.3%, -15.4% and then -23.5% in the latest 3 months. Weekly bonuses started the year at £34 in January but were only £25 in May.

This means that the wages growth we were happy to see this time last year has gone like this.

The rate of growth has been slowing since April to June 2019, when it stood at 4.0% for total pay and 3.9% for regular pay, the highest nominal pay growth rates since 2008. It had slowed to 2.9% in December 2019 to February 2020 immediately prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

It was slowing anyway but now someone has stamped on the brakes.

We do get a breakdown for the last year as we see the public sector did much better than construction which is a shift as I recall it being the other way not so long ago.

Between March to May 2019 and March to May 2020, average pay growth varied by industry sector (Figure 3). The public sector saw the highest estimated growth, at 3.8% for regular pay, while negative growth was seen in the construction sector, estimated at negative 5.4%, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector, estimated at negative 2.1%, and the manufacturing sector, estimated at negative 1.6%.

Have you noticed how the official release concentrates on the better regular pay series in the same way we are presented CPIH inflation? Let me help out by pointing out that in May the public-sector did even better for total pay growing by 4.8% on a year before. Whilst weekly bonuses have fallen there they are small ( £3 to £2). Construction total wages have fallen by 9.8% on May last year driven by a fall in bonuses from £30 to £19. Quite a shift to say the least.

Did Furlough Impact This?

Yes as you can see below 60% of those on furlough were only on it so 80% of previous wages.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published estimates of approximately 30% of employees being furloughed in the last two weeks of May, and a little over 40% of furloughed employees having their pay topped-up above the 80% pay received under CJRS ( Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme)

This pulled pay lower.

The combined impact of this is a downward drag of a little over 3%.

So we are now at 169 on the total wages index compared to the recent peak of 174.2 in January

Real Wages

Here are the official numbers.

In real terms, total pay growth for March to May was negative 1.3% (that is, nominal total pay grew slower than inflation); regular pay growth was negative 0.2%, the difference being driven by subdued bonuses in recent months.

They have a favourable inflation number ( CPIH) but the impact of that is lower right now. There is of course the caveat that the inflation numbers are missing quite a bit of data due to the pandemic.

The perspective is this and the last sentence does some heavy lifting here.

For May 2020, average regular pay, before tax and other deductions, for employees in Great Britain was estimated at £504 per week in nominal terms. The figure in real terms (constant 2015 prices) fell to £466 per week in May, after reaching £473 per week in December 2019, with pay in real terms back at the same level as it was in March 2019.

Pay in real terms is still below its level before the 2008 economic downturn.

As it slips their mind to do this let me help out using total pay and indexing to 2015 Pounds. The previous peak of February 2008 of £522 per week seems a statistical aberration so you can either use it or the £507 of May 2008 to compare to the £490 of this May, and yes this is flattered by the woeful inflation number used. A lost decade of twelve years and counting…..

Thirty years of hurt
Never stopped me dreaming ( Three Lions)

However not everyone is losing and thank you to Lynn Lewis and Ben McLannahan for this.

pay at @GoldmanSachs  up by almost a fifth in H1

Time to remind ourselves of this one more time.

The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it’s everywhere. The world’s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money. ( Matt Taibbi)

Employment

So having sorted out the price of work how much was actually taking place? The best guide comes below.

Between March to May 2019 and March to May 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by 175.3 million, or 16.7%, to 877.1 million hours (Figure 4). This was the largest annual decrease since estimates began in 1971, with total hours dropping to its lowest level since May to July 1997……..Average actual weekly hours fell by a record 5.5 hours on the year to a record low of 26.6 hours.

Indeed even this is an understatement it would seem

Experimental work with adjusted methodology suggests the use of the existing methodology has understated the reduction in the actual numbers of hours worked by approximately 5% to 6%

So the real fall looks to be of the order of 22%.

Another perspective is provided by the analysis of the Pay As You Earn ( how many are paying tax) figures.

In June 2020, 74,000 fewer people were in paid employment when compared with May 2020 and 649,000 fewer people were in paid employment when compared with March 2020.

Comment

We see that the wages situation is grim with both nominal and real wages falling again. That means that the journey to the previous peak looks ever longer. A more positive view is that there is a small flicker in the May figures so there may be signs of a recovery from the lows. On the other side is the furlough scheme which in a broad sweep is responsible for the wages drop in return for keeping people employed. When it ends though we will see unemployment rise and whilst some will return on normal wages we have already seen wage cuts applied. I expect more of them.

“Following intensive negotiations between Balpa and Ryanair a package of cost savings was put together,” Balpa said. “Pilots have agreed to accept a 20% pay reduction in order to save 260 of the jobs that were at risk, ( The Guardian)

Shifting back to conventional measures they are failing us as you can see.

The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.4%, 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier but 0.2 percentage points down on the previous quarter.

Really? Still at least we avoided a form of La Dolce Vita where unemployment supposedly fall, but even so this is hopeless.

The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier but largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter.

The Investing Channel

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK Real Wages have fallen by over 2% as the unemployment rate looks to have passed 5%

On Friday we got some insight into the state of play of UK output and GDP in April with the caveats I pointed out at the time. This morning has seen us receive the official figures on employment, unemployment and wages which shed with caveats further insight as to where we are. So let us take a look at the opening line.

Early indicators for May 2020 suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down over 600,000 compared with March 2020. The Claimant Count has continued to rise, enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government’s response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) mean an increase in the number of people eligible.

There is quite a bit going on in that paragraph and it is hard to avoid a wry smile at us being directed towards the Claimant Count that was first regarded as unreliable and manipulated back in the 1980s in the Yes Minister TV series,

Sir Humphrey: We didn’t raise it to enable them to learn more! We raised it to keep teenagers off the job market and hold down the unemployment figures.

There is also an episode where Jim Hacker tells us nobody actually believes the unemployment ( Claimant Count) numbers. The tweek to the Universal Credit system is welcome in helping people in trouble but does also add more smoke to the view.

Employment

We can dig deeper and let us start with a little more precision.

Experimental data of the number of payroll employees using HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Pay As You Earn Real Time Information figures show a fall in payroll employees in recent months. Early estimates for May 2020 from PAYE RTI indicate that the number of payroll employees fell by 2.1% (612,000) compared with March 2020.

Let me give our statisticians credit for looking at other sources of data to glean more information. But in this area there is an elephant in the room and it is a large one.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of employment includes those who worked in a job for at least one hour and those temporarily absent from a job.

Regular readers of my work will be aware of this issue but there is more.

Workers furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), or who are self-employed but temporarily not in work, have a reasonable expectation of returning to their jobs after a temporary period of absence. Therefore, they are classified as employed under the ILO definition.

As the estimate for them is of the order of 6 million we find that our employment fall estimate could be out by a factor of ten! Breaking it down there are all sorts of categories from those who will be unemployed as soon as the scheme ends to those who have been working as well ( sometimes for the same employer) who may be getting an official knock on the door. Also the numbers keep rising as HM Treasury has pointed out today.

By midnight on 14 June there’s been a total of: 9.1m jobs furloughed £20.8bn claimed in total

So the best guide we have comes from this in my opinion.

Between February to April 2019 and February to April 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by 94.2 million, or 8.9%, to 959.9 million hours. A decrease of 91.2 million or 8.7% was also seen on the quarter.

In terms of a graph we have quite a lurch.

I doubt many of you will be surprised to learn this bit.

The “accommodation and food service activities” industrial sector saw the biggest fall in average actual hours; down 6.9 hours to 21.2 hours per week.

With hotels shut and restaurants doing take out at best I am in fact surprised the numbers have not fallen further.

Unemployment

The conventional measures are simply not cutting it.

For February to April 2020: the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 3.9%; 0.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier but unchanged on the previous quarter.

We can apply the methodology I used for Italy on the 3rd of this month where we discovered that a flaw  meant that we found what we would regard as unemployed in the inactivity data.

The single-month estimate for the economic inactivity rate, for people aged 16 to 64 years in the UK, for April 2020, was 20.9%, the highest since August 2019. This represents an increase of 0.7 percentage points on the previous month (March 2020) and a record increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with three months ago (January 2020).

If we count the extra inactivity as unemployed we have some 349,000 more or if you prefer an unemployment rate of 5.1%. This begins to bring the numbers closer to reality although we are not allowing for those who will be unemployed as soon as the furlough scheme ends. Also we are not allowing for the scale of underemployment revealed by the hours worked figures.

Wages and Real Wages

I doubt anyone is going to be too surprised by the fall here.

Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in the three months to April 2020 was 1.0% for total pay (including bonuses) and 1.7% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).

It is quite a drop on what we had before.

Annual growth has slowed sharply for both total and regular pay compared with the period prior to introduction of the corona virus lockdown measures (December to February 2020), when it was 2.9%.

We see that bonuses plunged if we throw a veil over the double negative below.

The difference between the two measures is because of subdued bonuses, which fell by an average negative 6.8% (in nominal terms) in the three months February to April 2020.

If we look at April alone we get an even grimmer picture.

Single month growth in average weekly earnings for April 2020 was negative 0.9% for total pay and 0% for regular pay.

Already real wages were in trouble.

The 1.0% growth in total pay in February to April 2020 translates to a fall of negative 0.4% in real terms (that is, total pay grew slower than inflation); in comparison, regular pay grew in real terms, by 0.4%, the difference being driven by subdued bonuses in recent months.

So even using the woeful official measure driven by Imputed Rents we see a real wages decline of 1.8% in April. A much more realistic measure is of course the Retail Prices Index or RPI which shows a 2.4% fall for real wages in April.

On this subject there has been some research from my alma mater the LSE giving more power to the RPI’s elbow.

Aggregate month-to-month inflation was 2.4% in the first month of lockdown, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months.

I will look at this more when we come to the UK inflation data but it is another nail on the coffin for official claims and if I may be so bold a slap on the back for my arguments.

 

Comment

Today’s journey shows that with a little thought and application we can do better than the official data. Our estimate of the unemployment rate of 5.1% is more realistic than the official 3.9% although the weakness is an inability to allow for what must be underemployment on a grand scale. Shifting to real wages we fear that they may have fallen by over 3% in April as opposed to the official headline of a 0.4% fall. So we get closer to reality even when it is an unattractive one.

Staying with wages the numbers are being influenced by this.

Pay estimates are based on all employees on company payrolls, including those who have been furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).

Also Is it rude to point out that we are guided towards the monthly GDP statistics but told that the monthly wages ones ( a much longer running series) are less reliable?. Someone at the UK Statistics Authority needs to get a grip and preferably soon .

 

 

 

 

The UK government plans to rip us all off

This morning has seen the publishing of some news which feels like it has come from another world.

The all items CPI annual rate is 1.7%, down from 1.8% in January…….The all items RPI annual rate is 2.5%, down from 2.7% last month.

Previously we would have been noting the good news and suggesting that more is to come as we look up the price chain.

The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 0.4% on the year to February 2020, down from 1.0% in January 2020. The price for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process displayed negative growth of 0.5% on the year to February 2020, down from positive growth of 1.6% in January 2020.

There is something that remains relevant however as I note this piece of detail.

Petroleum products made the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of output inflation. Crude oil provided the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of input inflation.

That is something which is set to continue because if we look back to February the base for the oil price ( Brent Crude) was US $50 whereas as I type this it is US $27.50. So as you can see input and output costs are going to fall further. This will be offset a bit by the lower UK Pound £ but I will address it later. In terms of consumer inflation the February figures used are for diesel at 128.2 pence per litre whereas the latest weekly number is for 123.4 pence which is some 7.7% lower than a year ago. So there will be a downwards pull on inflation from this source.

There is a bit of an irony here because the Russo/Saudi turf war which began the oil price fall on the supply side has been overtaken by the large falls in demand we are seeing as economies slow. According to The Guardian we may run out of spaces to put it.

Analysts at Rystad estimate that the world has about 7.2bn barrels of crude and products in storage, including 1.3bn to 1.4bn barrels onboard oil tankers at sea.

In theory, it would take nine months to fill the world’s remaining oil stores, but constraints at many facilities will shorten this window to only a few months.

The Rip-Off

The plan hatched by a combination of HM Treasury and its independent puppets the UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics is to impose a type of stealth tax of 1% per annum. How?

In drawing up his advice, the National Statistician considered the views of the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Consumer Prices (APCP-S). The Board accepted his advice and that was the basis of the proposals we put to the Chancellor to cease publication of RPI and in the short term to bring the methods of CPIH into RPI.The Chancellor responded that he was not minded to promote legislation to end RPI, but that the Government intended to consult on whether to bring the methods in CPIH into RPI between 2025 and 2030, effectively aligning the measures.

The emphasis is mine and the plan is to put the fantasy Imputed Rents that are used in the widely ignored CPIH into the RPI. There is good reason that the CPIH has been ignored so let me explain why. In the UK the housing market is a big deal and so you might think what owner-occupiers pay would be a considerable influence on inflation. But in 2002 a decision was made to completely ignore it in the new UK inflation measure called CPI ( Consumer Prices Index).

Putting it in was supposed to be on its way but plans took a decade and the saga took a turn in 2012 when the first effort to use Imputed Rents began. It got strong support from the Financial Times economics editor Chris Giles at the time. He stepped back from that when it emerged that there had been a discontinuity in the numbers, which in statistical terms is a disaster. So the fantasy numbers ( owner-occupiers do not pay rent) are based on an unproven rental series.

Why would you put a 737 Max style system when you have a reliable airplane? You would not, as most sensible people would be debating between the use of the things that are paid such as house prices and mortgage payments. That is what is planned in the new inflation measure which has been variously called HII and HCI. You may not be surprised to learn that there have been desperate official efforts to neuter this. Firstly by planning to only produce it annually and more latterly by trying to water down any house price influence.

At a time like this you may not think it is important but when things return to normal losing around 1% per year every year will make you poorer as decisions are made on it. Also it will allow government’s to claim GDP and real wages are higher than they really are.

Gold

There is a lot going on here as it has seen its own market discontinuity which I will cover in a moment. But we know money is in the offing as I note this from the Financial Times.

Gold continued to push higher on Tuesday as a recent wave of selling dried up and Goldman Sachs told its clients the time had come to buy the “currency of last resort”. Like other asset classes, gold was hit hard in the recent scramble for US dollars, falling more than 12 per cent from its early March peak of around $1,700 a troy ounce to $1,460 last week.  The yellow metal started to see a resurgence on Monday, rising by more than 4 per cent after the Federal Reserve said it would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds and the US dollar fell.

So we know that the blood funnel of the Vampire Squid is up and sniffing. On its view of ordinary clients being “Muppets” one might reasonably conclude it has some gold to sell.

Also there have been problems in the gold markets as I was contacted yesterday on social media asking about the gold price. I was quoting the price of the April futures contact ( you can take the boy out of the futures market but you cannot etc….) which as I type this is US $1653. Seeing as it was below US $1500 that is quite a rally except the spot market was of the order of US $50 below that. There are a lot of rumours about problems with the ability of some to deliver the gold that they owe which of course sets alight the fire of many conspiracy theories we have noted. This further went into suggestions that some banks have singed their fingers in this area and are considering withdrawing from the market.

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank thinks the virus is to blame.

Having seen 100’s of anti-bank and anti-paper #gold tweets the last couple of days I think I will give the metal a rest while everyone calm down. We have a temporary break down in logistics not being helped by CME’s stringent delivery rules of 100oz bars only.

So we will wait and see.

Ah, California girls are the greatest in the world
Each one a song in the making
Singin’ rock to me I can hear the melody
The story is there for the takin’
Drivin’ over Kanan, singin’ to my soul
There’s people out there turnin’ music into gold ( John Stewart )

 

Comment

Quite a few systems are creaking right now as we see the gold market hit the problems seen by bond markets where prices are inconsistent. Ironically the central banks tactics are to help with that but their strategy is fatally flawed because if you buy a market on an enormous scale to create what is a fake price ( lower bond yields) then liquidity will dry up. I have written before about ruining bond sellers ( Italy) and buyers will disappear up here. Please remember that when the central banks tell us it is nothing to do with them and could not possibly have been predicted. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve will undertake another US $125 billion of QE bond purchases today and the Bank of England some £3 billion. The ECB gives fewer details but will be buying on average between 5 and 6 billion Euros per day.

Next we have the UK deep state in operation as they try to impose a stealth tax via the miss measurement of inflation. Because they have lost the various consultations so far and CPIH has remained widely ignored the new consultation is only about when and not if.

The Authority’s consultation, which will be undertaken jointly with that of HM Treasury, will begin on 11 March. It will be open to responses for six weeks, closing on 22 April. HM Treasury will consult on the appropriate timing for the proposed changes to the RPI, while the Authority will consult on the technical method of making that change to the RPI.

Meanwhile for those of you who like some number crunching here is how a 123.4 pence for the price of oil gets broken down. I have done some minor rounding so the numbers add up.

Oil  44.9 pence

Duty 58 pence

VAT 20.5 pence

The plan to castrate the Retail Prices Index brings shame on UK statistics credibility

The Retail Prices Index or RPI has come in for quite a bit of official criticism over the past decade sometimes around the issue of what is called the Formula Effect and more rarely about the way it deals with the housing sector. The latter is more rare because many of the critics are not well informed enough to realise that house prices are in it as they are implicit via the use of depreciation. However to my mind this has been something of a sham and the real reason was highlighted in yesterday’s post.

UK real regular pay is now above its pre-crisis peak! If you like the CPIH measure of consumer prices. For CPI enthusiasts, it’s -1.8% below. For the RPI crew, it’s -7% below, for the RPIX hardcore, it’s -10.4%.

As you can see the RPI consistently gives a higher inflation reading hence using it real wages are lower. That is why official bodies such as the UK Statistics Authority with the dead hand of HM Treasury behind them keep trying to eliminate it. Let me illustrate by using the measures they have recommended RPI, then CPI and then CPIH as you can see from the quote above they keep recommending lower numbers. What a coincidence! This flatters real wages and GDP as consumer inflation is around 24% of the inflation measure used there so yes UK GDP has been inflated too. In fact by up to 0.5% a year,by the changes according to the calculations of  Dr.Mark Courtney.

They are back as this from the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority Sir (hoping to be Lord) David Norgrove shows.

We have been clear for a long time that RPI is not a good measure of inflation and its use should be discouraged. The proposals we put to the Chancellor are consistent with this longheld view.

That is very revealing as we have had several consultations and they have lost each one. In fact my view has gained more support over time because if you look at the facts putting a fantasy number as 17% of your inflation index as is done by putting Imputed Rents in CPIH is laughable when you can use an actual number like house prices. This is how they explain they lost. It does allow me to update my financial lexicon for these times where “wide range of views” equals “we keep losing”

There has since then been extensive consultation
and discussion about inflation measurement. All the statistical issues have been well aired. A
notable feature of these discussions was the wide range of opinions

They have lost so badly that this time around they have taken the possibility of losing out of the new plan.

The Authority’s consultation, which will
be undertaken jointly with that of HM Treasury, will begin on 11 March. It will be open to responses for six weeks, closing on 22 April. HM Treasury will consult on the appropriate timing for the proposed changes to the RPI, while the Authority will consult on the technical method of making that change to the RPI.

As you can see it is about how and when it will be done rather than what should be done. The plan is to put Imputed Rents in the RPI so it also records lower numbers. Regular readers may have noted Andrew Baldwin asking me to support his effort to stop a change to the inflation numbers calculated, which I did. You see that change will stop people like him and me being able to calculate what the impact of changing the RPI will be. You see at this point how the deep state operates. Along the way it exterminates an inflation measure which Andrew has supported after I may note the UK statistics establishment presented it ( RPIJ) as the next best thing to sliced bread. Before behaving like a spoilt child and taking their football home with them so no-one else can play.

Let me also address the Formula Effect issue. I have just explained above how suddenly they do not want people to be able to calculate it. Suspicious eh? But it is worse than that because all of the official propaganda ignores the fact that a lot of it is due to clothing prices and fashion clothing. We could find out as the statistician Simon Briscoe has suggested by suspending some of the clothing section for a while or producing numbers with and without it. After all CPI was the official measure for over a decade and it ignored owner occupied housing which is 17% of the index when included. But apparently you cannot exclude less than 1% which leads me to believe they already know the answer which presumably would be found in the 2012 pilot scheme which has been kept a secret.

Today’s Data

There was a quirk in the series meaning a rise was likely but not this much.

The all items CPI annual rate is 1.8%, up from 1.3% in December.

The factor which was mostly expected was this.

In January 2020, the largest upward contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate came from housing and household services……….However, in January 2020, its contribution increased to 0.55 percentage points (an increase of 0.19 percentage points from December 2019), as the gas and electricity price reductions from January 2019 unwound.

I was a bit slack yesterday in saying that inflation will fall to help real wage growth when I should have put it is heading lower but the impact of regulatory moves will cause bumps in the road. Apologies.

Changes to Ofgem’s energy price cap introduce some volatility — with CPI inflation expected to pick up to 1.8% in 2020 Q1, before falling back to around 1¼% in the middle of the year. The expected reduction in water bills as a result of action by the regulator Ofwat is also expected to contribute to the fall in inflation in 2020 Q2.  ( Bank of England)

As it does not happen often let us congratulate the Bank of England on being on the money so far. Returning to UK inflation it was also pushed higher by this.

Rising pump prices and upward contributions from transport services (in particular, airfares) meant transport’s contribution rose to 0.22 percentage points in January 2020.

There was also a nudge higher ( 0.07% in total) from a more surprising area as we are know the retail sector is in trouble but clothing and footwear prices saw a slightly lower sales impact. There was a similar impact on restaurants and hotels where prices fell less than last year.Meanwhile.

The all items RPI annual rate is 2.7%, up from 2.2% last month.

House Prices

Sadly there are ongoing signs of a market turn.

The latest house price data published on GOV.UK by HM Land Registry for December 2019 show that average house prices in the UK increased by 2.2% in the year to December 2019, up from 1.7% in the year to November 2019 (Figure 1). Over the past three years, there has been a general slowdown in UK house price growth (driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England), but there has been a pickup in annual growth since July 2019.

I was contacted on social media yesterday to be told that the market has really turned in Wales. The official numbers seem to have turned the other way though…

House price growth in Wales increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, down from 5.5% in November 2019, with the average house price in Wales at £166,000.

Maybe they will turn back in January.

Comment

A lot of today’s article has been comment via fact based opinions. Let me add two more factors. Firstly the UK establishment just as the Euro area has released it cannot get away any longer with ignoring the owner-occupied housing sector in its official inflation measure. Meaning the screams of those unable to afford housing have even penetrated the clouds around the skyscraper Ivory Towers of the ECB. Next whilst this may seem like a fait accompli it has seemed like this as every consultation has begun but each time so far I have ended up winning. If you think about it they are admitting they cannot win on the arguments by trying to eliminate them from the consultation.

As to this month’s data it is a shame to see a rise but with the UK Pound £ and the oil price where they are the trend should remain downwards. But there will be swings and roundabouts as the impact of utility price regulation comes into play.

UK Real Wages have not regained their previous peak

As we switch out focus to the UK labour market we see two contrasting forces being applied to it. The first comes from the better news being reported for the UK economy recently.

Financial wellbeing expectations hit survey-record high in
February ( IHS Markit )

That came only yesterday and according to it the outlook is brightening.

Looking ahead, UK households signalled positive expectations towards their financial health. The Future Household Finance Index – which measures expected change in financial health over the next 12 months – rose to 52.7 in February, from 49.6 in January. The level of optimism was at its highest since the data were first collected in February 2009, exceeding the previous
peak seen in January 2015.

This led according to the survey to a better labour market situation.

UK households recorded a lessened degree of pessimism
towards their job security during February, with the respective index rising (but remaining below 50.0) to a seven-month high. Meanwhile, the rate of growth in both workplace activity and income from employment accelerated from January.

This survey is a curious beast because the headline index which went from 44.6 to 47.6 in this report has never been in positive territory. Whilst in some ways that does cover out experience ( real wages for example) it does not cover the employment situation which has been pretty good.

This backed up the survey of the wider UK economy conducted by IHS Markit earlier this month.

At 53.3 in January, up from 49.3 in December, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Composite Output Index posted above the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time since last August. The latest reading signalled a faster pace of growth than the earlier ‘flash’ estimate (52.4 in January) and was the highest for 16 months.

This too came with positive news for the labour market.

This uplift in success also created some business pressures
as the rush to increase staffing levels resulted in demands
for higher salaries.

Apple and HSBC

Last night, however, brought a reminder that on a world wide scale there is an ongoing economic impact from the Corona Virus.

Apple Inc become the latest company to flag lower revenue as a result of the epidemic, saying it would not meet its revenue guidance for the March quarter because of slower iPhone production and weaker demand in China. ( Reuters)

The main Apple market is not yet open due to yesterday being Presidents Day but more minor markets have suggested it will open more than 4% lower. I note that Reuters is also reporting this for the Chinese economy.

Analysts at Nomura again downgraded their China first-quarter economic growth forecast, to 3%, half the pace in the fourth quarter, and said there was a risk it could be even weaker.

This morning we have seen another consequence of the era of treating banks as The Precious.

HSBC posted plummeting profits for 2019 today as it outlined plans to get rid of $100bn (£77bn) of assets and dramatically downsize its investment banking arm in a restructure that will cost 35,000 jobs over the next three years. ( City-AM )

We know that the situation is really poor because the chief executive has deployed the word “resilient” which we have learnt means anything but.

Today’s Data

Employment

The long sequence of good news in this area continues.

The UK employment rate was estimated at a record high of 76.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points up on the previous quarter.

If we look further we see that such numbers are based on this.

There was a 180,000 increase in employment on the quarter. This was, again, mainly driven by quarterly increases for full-time workers (up 203,000 – the largest increase since March to May 2014), and for women (up 150,000 – the largest increase since February to April 2014). The quarterly increase for women working full-time (also up 150,000) was the largest since November 2012 to January 2013.

Actually this continues to be a remarkable performance and is a clear gain in the credit crunch era. However we do need context because there is for example an element of subjectivity in the definition of full-time work. Those completing the survey are guided towards 16 hours per week which is a bit low in itself but they can also ignore that. Also the rise in female employment is no doubt influenced by the rise in the retirement age for them.

The overall position is that on this measure things turned for the UK economy in 2012 a year earlier that GDP picked up. Regular readers will recall that back then we were worried about it being part-time but that has changed. Overall though there has been a pick-up in self-employment with ebbs and flows which is currently flowing.

Whilst there is an implicit rather than explicit link to unemployment ( as there is also the inactivity category) the good employment news has driven this.

the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 3.8%; this is 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter…..For October to December 2019, an estimated 1.29 million people were unemployed. This is 73,000 fewer than a year earlier and 580,000 fewer than five years earlier.

Wages

Here the news has been less good. Let me explain using today’s release.

Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 2.9% from 3.2% last month for total pay (including bonuses), and to 3.2% from 3.4% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).

This gives us two contexts. We have been in a better phase for wages growth but it has been slowing recently and that has continued. Things get more complex as we look at real wages as there are serious problems with the official representation of them.

In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 1.4%, and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.8%.

The problem is that a simply woeful inflation measure is being used, via the use of fantasy imputed rents in the official CPIH inflation measure. This ensures that housing inflation is under-recorded and thus real wages are over recorded. A much better context is provided by this from Rupert Seggins.

UK real regular pay is now above its pre-crisis peak! If you like the CPIH measure of consumer prices. For CPI enthusiasts, it’s -1.8% below. For the RPI crew, it’s -7% below, for the RPIX hardcore, it’s -10.4%. If the household deflator’s your thing, then it happened in 2016 Q1.

Can anybody think why Her Majesty’s Treasury is trying to replace house prices in the RPI with Imputed Rents?! Actually trying to measure housing inflation stops the establishment claiming house prices are a Wealth Effect rather than the more accurate gains for existing owners but inflation for present and future buyers. Returning to real wages as you can see it makes a very large difference.

Having established that I have been disappointed to see so many news sources copy and paste this part of the release.

In real terms, regular pay is now at its highest level since the series began in 2000, whereas total pay is still 3.7% below its peak in February 2008.

As The Zombies pointed out.

And if she should tell you “come closer”
And if she tempts you with her charms
Tell her no no no no no-no-no-no
No no no no no-no-no-no
No no no no no

If we look into the monthly data we see that the UK chemicals sector is doing well and wage growth has picked up to 8.9%. Care is needed with such detail but it has been around 7% for over 6 months. However other areas of manufacturing are more troubled with the clothing and textiles sector seeing no increase at all. Whilst I am all for higher wages I have to confess that fact that the real estate sector is seeing consistent rises above 6% has a worrying kicker.

Comment

We find ourselves in broadly familiar territory where the quantity news for the UK economy is again very good but the quality news is not as good. At least these days the real wages position is improving a little. But to claim we are back to the previous peak is frankly a case of people embarrassing themselves.

The numbers themselves always need a splash of salt. For example I have pointed out already the growth of the self-employed, so their omission from the wages data is increasingly significant. Also whilst we are employing more people this time around hours worked was not as strong.

Between October to December 2018 and October to December 2019, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK increased by 0.8% (to 1.05 billion hours), while average actual weekly hours decreased by 0.2% (to 31.9 hours).

I look at such numbers because out official statisticians have yet to cover the concept of underemployment adequately. There is an irony here in that productivity will be boosted by a shorter working week. Maybe even by this.

In October to December 2019, it was estimated that there were a record 974,000 people in employment on a “zero-hour contract” in their main job, representing a record 3.0% of all people in employment. This was 130,000 more than for the same period a year earlier.