Where next for the economy of India?

A subject we returned to several times in 2019 was the economy of India. There were two main drivers here which were interrelated. One was the economic slow down and the second was the wave of interest-rate cuts we saw from the Reserve Bank of India. At the moment India is back in the news on two fronts. Firstly President Trump is in town although by his pronounciation of Sachin Tendulkar he had a lot to learn about the national sport. Second and much more sadly there are riots in Delhi continuing a recent theme of unrest in India. For our purposes though, we need to switch back to the economic situation and how India can deal as best as it can with the economic effects of the Corona Virus.

Where do we stand?

The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of India tell us this.

Moving on to the domestic economy, the first advance estimates (FAE) released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on January 7, 2020 placed India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2019-20 at 5.0 per cent.

Whilst these would be considered fast numbers for elsewhere they are really rather underwhelming for India. Indeed numbers for the past are being revised down as well.

 In its January 31 release, the NSO revised real GDP growth for 2018-19 to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent given in the provisional estimates of May 2019. On the supply side, growth of real gross value added (GVA) is estimated at 4.9 per cent in 2019-20 as compared with 6.0 per cent in 2018-19.

The RBI also gave us a reminder of how much has cut interest-rates in response to this.

As against the cumulative reduction in the policy repo rate by 135 bps since February 2019, transmission to various money and corporate debt market segments up to January 31, 2020 ranged from 146 bps (overnight call money market) to 190 bps (3-month CPs of non-banking finance companies).

It will be happy to see greater impacts than its move and India’s government will be grateful for this impact too.

Transmission through the longer end of government securities market was at 73 bps (5-year government securities) and 76 bps (10-year government securities).

Although caution is required here as bond markets have been rallying anyway so it is hard to determine the exact cause of any move. However amidst the cheerleading there is something we have seen elsewhere.

Transmission to the credit market is gradually improving. …….. The weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by banks declined by 69 bps and the WALR on outstanding rupee loans by 13 bps during February-December 2019.

This is a familiar feature of the credit crunch era where interest-rate cuts get lost in the banking system and do not reach the borrower be they individual or business.

Know Your Onions

These are a staple part of the Indian diet and back on December 2nd this was the state of play.

Households and restaurants in India are reeling under pressure as onion prices have surged exponentially  across the country. A kilo of onion is retailing at Rs 90-100 in most Indian states, peaking at Rs 120-130 per kilo in major cities like Kolkata, Chennai, Mumbai, Odisha, and Pune.

This hurt consumers and especially the poor adding to the economic difficulties faced by Indians. Well according to the Times of India things are now much better.

PANAJI: After burning a hole in the pockets of the common man for over three months, prices of onions have come down to  ..Rs 29 per kg at the outlets run by the Goa State  Horticulture Corporation Limited (GSHCL).

Whilst the onion crisis has faded from view the inflation situation has got worse with the annual rate rising to 7.59% in January. In spite of the fall in Onion prices it is being pulled higher by food (and drink) inflation which is 11.79% as the inflation shifts.

On the other hand, the recent pick-up in prices of non-vegetable food items, specifically in milk due to a rise in input costs, and in pulses due to a shortfall in kharif production, are all likely to sustain. ( RBI)

Looking back we see an index set at 100 in 2012 is now at 150.2 so India has seen more inflation than in many other places. I will let readers decide for themselves about housing inflation at 4.2% because in other countries we would consider that to be high but for India perhaps not.

Copying the Euro area

Firstly let us give the RBI some credit ( sorry) as we note that it got ahead of the US Federal Reserve which stumbled in this area last autumn.

Since June 2019, the Reserve Bank has ensured that comfortable liquidity is available in the system in order to facilitate the transmission of monetary policy actions and flow of credit to the economy.

Although that does rather beg a question of what it was doing in the years and decades before then! Also we seem to need more liquidity after all the monetary easing in India and elsewhere which is much more in line with my arguments that it is not working than the official claims of success.

The model was taken from the Euro area.

As announced in the Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies on February 06, 2020, it has been decided to conduct Long Term Repo Operations (LTROs) for one-year and three-year tenors for up to a total amount of ₹ 1,00,000 crores at the policy repo rate.

Yesterday’s one-year operation saw plenty of demand.

The total bids that were received amounted to `1,23,154 crore, implying a bid to cover ratio (i.e., the amount of bids received relative to the notified amount) of 4.9.

So the system is keen on what Stevie V called cold hard cash, dirty money and we see that there was even more demand for the longer version earlier this month.

The response to the LTRO has been highly encouraging. The total bids that were received amounted to ₹ 1,94,414 crore, implying a bid to cover ratio (i.e., the amount of bids received relative to the amount announced) of 7.8. The total amount of bids has, in fact, exceeded the aggregate amount of ₹ 1,00,000 crore proposed to be offered under the LTRO scheme.

We can add “highly encouraging” to my financial lexicon for these times. After all if LTROs are the triumph they are officially claimed to be the Euro area economy would not be where it is.

Comment

Today has been a journey through the problems faced by the economy of India. If we start with economic growth then it was weakening anyway and I have my doubts about the first bit from the RBI below.

the easing of global trade uncertainties should encourage exports and spur investment activity. The breakout of the corona virus may, however, impact tourist arrivals and global trade.

So far whilst the letter I has been over represented in the Corona Virus outbreak India has thankfully been quiet, but it cannot escape the wider economic effects.

Next comes the issue of inflation as India’s workers and consumers have been suffering from a burst of it just as its inflation targeting central bank has cut interest-rates substantially. So there will have been hardship which is fertile breeding ground for the unrest we are seeing.

Also there seems to be a thirst for liquidity in the financial sector in India. We have looked in the past at the problems of the banks there and it would seem that like in the Euro area they are in something of a drought for liquidity. The RBI deserves credit for so far avoiding the way the US central bank has ended up like a dog chasing its tail. But we return as so often to wondering why ever more liquidity is required? Which leads to whether it is merely masking underlying solvency issues.

Meanwhile The Donald is in full flow.

Trump in India: If I don’t win, you’ll see a crash like you’ve never seen before ( Maria Tadeo of Bloomberg)

The Investing Channel

 

7 thoughts on “Where next for the economy of India?

  1. Late last week Trump was saying the coronavirus would have little impact on the US but I think he was hoping the US markets would remain at their highs.

    However the UK markets again in decline after a small bounce first thing this morning, I don’t think the US markets will remain immune to any fall back, and it may well be the case we see a worldwide pullback in shares as the virus spreads wordwide

    There have only been a few cases of coronavirus in India, I dread to think how India would cope if the infection rate increased there.

    I read a report last week I seem to recall about India already being in recession, despite a 4-5 % growth rate, as most of the lower class Indians actually feel poorer and as you say there are demonstrations about.

    Even if China gets back to work and production tries to get to full production it wont be end of the matter as there will be production problems in other parts of the world which will mean less demand for consumer goods worldwide.

    I suppose there is another way of looking at all this, and that is consumerism part the cause of global warming and the coronavirus infection could be an “act of God” as a warning to man.

  2. Hello Shaun,

    re : ” Next comes the issue of inflation as India’s workers and consumers have been suffering from a burst of it just as its inflation targeting central bank has cut interest-rates ”

    given the demos and general dissatisfaction of the Indian public to such inflation makes me wonder why our BoE thinks such a thing here is worth the candle……..

    its either too high or too low and when it looks as if its going to be about right , they move the goal posts !

    Forbin

    • Hi Forbin

      For many in India the price of a bag of onions is material to whether they eat or not so that adds to the demos and unrest. Of course there are people like that here but relatively few.

      As to the level of inflation then the best answer these days if for it to be low because if it rises the link to wages is often broken. I spend some time explaining this on social media mostly to “experts” who seem stuck in a time warp.

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