The land of the rising sun sees rising GDP too

Today starts with good news from the land of the rising sun or Nihon. I do not mean the sporting sphere although there was success as a bronze medal in the men’s 4 by 100m relay was followed by silver and bronze in the men’s 50 km walk at the world athletics championships. There was also a near miss as Hideki Matsuyama faded at the US PGA  and did not become the first Japanese man to win a golf major. But the major good news came from the Cabinet Office as this from The Mainichi tells us.

Japan’s economy grew an annualized real 4.0 percent in the April-June period for a sixth straight quarter of expansion, marking the longest growth run since 2006, as private consumption and corporate spending showed signs of vigor, government data showed Monday.

If we convert to the terms we use there was 1% economic growth from the previous quarter which was quite a surge. Actually that is way beyond what the Bank of Japan thinks is the potential growth rate for Japan but let us park that for now and move on to the detail.  Reuters points out that consumption was strong.

Private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, more than the median estimate of 0.5 percent growth.

That marked the fastest expansion in more than three years as shoppers splashed out on durable goods, an encouraging sign that consumer spending is no longer the weak spot in Japan’s economic outlook.

In fact so was investment.

Capital expenditure jumped by 2.4 percent in April-June from the previous quarter, versus the median estimate for a 1.2 percent increase. That was the fastest growth in business investment since January-March 2014.

The combination is interesting as this is something that Japan has wanted for a long time as its “lost decade(s)” of economic malaise have seen domestic demand and consumption in particular struggle. Some countries would be especially troubled by the trade figures below but of course Japan has seen many years of surpluses as this from the Nikkei Asian Review indicates.

 Japan’s current account surplus expanded in the January-June period to the highest level since 2007 as earnings from foreign investments moved further into the black, despite rising energy prices pushing up the overall value of the country’s imports, government data showed Tuesday.

 

Thus it is likely to see this as another welcome sign of strong domestic demand.

External demand subtracted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth in April-June in part due to an increase in imports.

Those who look at the world economy will be pleased to see a “surplus” economy importing more.

Where does this leave Abenomics?

There are various ways of looking at this and the Japanese owned Financial Times leads the cheers.

‘Not a fluke’: Japan on course to record best GDP growth streak since 2000

“Not a fluke” is an odd thing to write because if you look at the GDP chart they provide we see several spikes like this one which imply it may well be er not only a fluke but another one. They are less keen to credit another form of Abenomics which is the way that the latest stimulus programme impacted with a 5.1% (21.9% annualised) rise in public investment causing a 0.2% rise in GDP on its own. Perhaps this is because of the dichotomy in this part of Abenomics where on the one hand fiscal expansionism is proclaimed and on the other so is a lower deficit! Also there are memories of past stimulus projects where pork barrel politics led to both bridges and roads to nowhere.

Actually the FT does then give us a bit of perspective.

 

Japan’s economy, as measured by real GDP, is now 7 per cent larger than when prime minister Shinzo Abe took office in late 2012, notes Emily Nicol at Daiwa Capital Markets.

That is a long way short of the original promises which is one of the reasons why the Japanese government page on the subject introduces Abenomics 2.0.  If we look at the longer-term chart below is there a clear change.

On such a basis one might think it was the US or UK that had seen Abenomics as opposed to Japan. Of course the figures are muddied by the recession created by the consumption tax rise in 2014 but the performance otherwise even with this quarter’s boost is far from relatively stellar.

Bank of Japan

It will of course be pleased to see the economic news although it also provides plenty of food for thought as details like this provide backing for my analysis that ~0% inflation is far from the demon it is presented as and can provide economic benefits. From Bloomberg.

The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.4 percent from a year earlier.

Board Member Funo confirmed this in a speech earlier this month.

The rate of increase for all items less fresh food and energy had remained on a decelerating trend, following the peak of 1.2 percent in winter 2015; recently, the rate of change has been at around 0 percent.

He of course followed this with the usual rhetoric.

The rate will likely reach around 2 percent in around fiscal 2019.

It is always just around the corner in not entirely dissimilar fashion to a fiscal surplus in the UK. As to the official view it is going rather well apparently.

Taking this into consideration, the Bank decided to adopt a commitment that allows inflation to overshoot the price stability target so as to strengthen the forward-looking mechanism in the formation of inflation expectations, enhance the credibility of achieving the price stability target among the public, and raise inflation expectations in a more forceful manner.

Make of that what you will. The reality is that the QQE programme did weaken the Yen but that effect wore off and inflation is now ~0% as is wage growth.

Comment

This growth figures are good news and let me add something that appears to have been missed in the reports I have read. Back to Board Member Funo.

In an economy with a declining population.

Thus the per capita or per person GDP numbers are likely to be even better than the headline. I would say that this would benefit the ordinary Japanese worker and consumer but we know that real wage growth has dipped into negative territory again. This provides a problem for Prime Minister Abe as when he came to power the criticisms were based around his past history of being part of the Japanese establishment. What we see nearly 5 years down the road is a lack of real wage growth combined with good times for Japanese corporate profitability. As to the reform programme there is not a lot to be seen and maybe this is why Board Member Funo was so downbeat.

In an economy with a declining population, as is the case in Japan, demand is expected to decrease for many goods and services; therefore, it will be important to adequately adjust supply capacity; that is, employees and production capacity to meet such a decreasing trend.

I do not know about you but trying to raise prices when you expect both demand and supply to fall seems extremely reckless to me.

As to the GDP numbers themselves we need a cautionary note as Japan has had particular problems with them and they are revised more and by larger amounts than elsewhere.

 

As UK house price growth fades so has the economy

Today has opened with news that is in tune with my expectations for 2017. This is my view that house price growth will slow and that it may also go negative. Such an event would make a change in the UK’s inflation dynamics as that would mean that official consumer inflation would exceed asset or house price inflation and of course would send a chill down the spine of the Bank of England. Here is the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.

The headline price growth gauge slipped from +7% to +1% (suggesting prices were unchanged over the period), representing the softest reading since early 2013.

The date will echo around the walls of the Bank of England as its house price push or Funding for Lending Scheme began in the summer of 2013. Also the immediate prospects look none too bright.

Looking ahead, near term price expectations continue to signal a flat trend over the coming three months at the headline level……..Going forward, respondents are not anticipating activity in the sales market to gain impetus at this point in time, with both three and twelve month expectations series virtually flat.

Actually flat lining on a national scale conceals that there are quite a few regional changes going on.

house prices remain quite firmly on an upward trend in some areas, led by Northern Ireland, the West Midlands and the South West. By way of contrast, prices continue to fall in London…….. the price balance for the South East of England fell further into negative territory, posting the weakest reading for this part of the country since 2011.

We see that price falls are spreading out from our leading indicator of London and wait to see how they ripple out. Northern Ireland is no doubt being influenced by the house price rises south of the border. A cautionary note is that this survey tends to be weighted towards higher house prices and hence London.

The Real Economy

Let us open with the good news which has come from this morning’s production figures.

In June 2017, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.5% compared with May 2017, due mainly to a rise of 4.1% in mining and quarrying as a result of higher oil and gas production.

It is hard not to have a wry smile at the fact that something that was supposed to be fading away has boosted the numbers! Of the 0.52% increase some 0.51% was due to it and as well as the impact of a lighter maintenance cycle there was some hopeful news.

In addition, use of the re-developed Schiehallion oil field and use of the new Kraken oil field are contributing to the increase in oil production. Both are expected to increase UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) production over the longer-term.

If we move to manufacturing then the position was flat as a pancake.

Manufacturing monthly growth was flat in June 2017.

However this concealed quite a shift in the detail as we already knew that there has been a slow down in car and vehicle production.

Transport equipment provided the largest downward contribution, falling by 3.6% due mainly to a 6.7% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.

This was mostly offset by increases in the chemical products and pharmaceutical sectors with some seeing quite a boom.

Chemical products provided the largest upward pressure, rising by 6.9% due mainly to an increase of 31.2% within industrial gases, inorganics and fertilisers.

If step back we see that over the past year there has been some growth but frankly not much.

Total production output for June 2017 compared with June 2016 increased by 0.3%, with manufacturing providing the largest upward contribution, increasing by 0.6%

There is an irony here as a good thing suddenly gets presented as a bad one and of course as ever the weather gets some blame.

energy supply partially offset the increase in total production, decreasing by 4.6% due largely to warmer temperatures.

If we look at other data sources we can say this does not really fit with the Markit PMI business surveys which have shown more manufacturing growth. It may be that they have been sent offside by the fact that the slowing has mostly been in one sector ( vehicles). If the CBI is any guide then the main summer months should be stronger.

Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.

The overall perspective is that the picture of something of a lost decade has been in play.

Since then, both production and manufacturing output have risen but remain well below their level reached in the pre-downturn gross domestic product (GDP) peak in Quarter 1 (January to March) 2008, by 7.8% and 4.4% respectively in the 3 months to June 2017.

Trade

One of the apparent certainties of life is that the UK will post an overall trade deficit and the beat remains the same.

Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017 and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, the total trade deficit (goods and services) widened by £0.1 billion to £8.9 billion as increases in imports were closely matched by increases in exports.

So essentially the same as there is no way those numbers are accurate to £100 million. Even the UK establishment implicitly accept this.

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade on 14 November 2014.

If the problems were minor this would not be ongoing more than 2 years later would it? But if we go with what we have we see that as we stand the lower level for the UK Pound post the EU Leave vote has not made any significant impact.

In comparison with Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 of 2016, the total trade deficit over Quarter 1 and 2 of 2017 has been relatively stable.

This gets more fascinating when we note that prices and indeed inflation have certainly been on the move.

Sterling was 8.7% lower than a year ago, with UK goods export and import prices rising by 8.2% and 7.8% respectively over the period Quarter 2 2016 to Quarter 2 2017.

Construction

This is sadly yet another area where the numbers are “not a National Statistic” and I have written before that I lack confidence in them but for what it is worth they were disappointing.

Construction output fell both month-on-month and 3 month on 3 month, by 0.1% and 1.3% respectively.

This differs from the Markit PMI business survey which has shown growth.

Comment

We are finding that the summer of 2017 is rather a thin period for the UK economy. I do not mean the weaker trajectory for house prices because I feel that it is much more an example of inflation rather than the official view that it is economic growth. Yes existing owners do gain ( but mostly only if they sell) but first time buyers and those “trading up” lose.

Meanwhile our production sector is not far off static. So far the hoped for gains from a lower exchange rate have not arrived as we mull again J-Curve economics. Looking forwards there is some hope from the CBI survey for manufacturing in particular and maybe one day we can get it back to previous peaks. But we find ourselves yet again looking to a sector which appears to be on an inexorable march in terms of importance for the services sector dominates everything now and for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile there is plainly trouble at the UK Office for National Statistics as the rhetoric of data campuses meets a reality of two of today’s main data sets considered to be sub standard.

Me on Core Finance TV

http://www.corelondon.tv/bank-england-mpc-confusion/

http://www.corelondon.tv/bitcoin-will-5000-next-level/

http://www.corelondon.tv/ecb-hardcore-operators-inflation-targets/

 

 

 

 

 

The ECB faces the problem of what to do next?

Later this month ECB President Mario Draghi will talk at the Jackson Hole monetary conference with speculation suggesting he will hint at the next moves of the ECB ( European Central Bank). For the moment it is in something of a summer lull in policy making terms although of course past decisions carry on and markets move. Whilst there is increasing talk about the US equity market being becalmed others take the opportunity of the holiday period to make their move.

The Euro

This is a market which has been on the move in recent weeks and months as we have seen a strengthening of the Euro. It has pushed the UK Pound £ back to below 1.11 after the downbeat Inflation Report of the Bank of England last week saw a weakening of the £.  More important has been the move against the US Dollar where the Euro has rallied to above 1.18 accompanied on its way by a wave of reversals of view from banks who were previously predicting parity such as my old employer Deutsche Bank. If we switch to the effective or trade weighted index we see that since mid April it has risen from the low 93s at which it spent much of the early part of 2017 to 99.16 yesterday.

So there has been a tightening of monetary policy via this route as we see in particular an anti inflationary impact from the rise against the US Dollar because of the way that commodities are usually priced in it. I note that I have not been the only person mulling this.

Such thoughts are based on the “Draghi Rule” from March 2014.

Now, as a rule of thumb, each 10% permanent effective exchange rate appreciation lowers inflation by around 40 to 50 basis points

Some think the effect is stronger but let us move on noting that whilst the Euro area consumer and worker will welcome this the ECB is more split. Yes there is a tightening of policy without it making an explicit move but on the other side of the coin it is already below its inflation target.

Monetary policy

Rather oddly the ECB choose to tweet a reminder of this yesterday.

In the euro area, the European Central Bank’s most important decision in this respect normally relates to the key interest rates…….In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, central banks may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes.

Perhaps the summer habit of handing over social media feeds to interns has spread to the ECB as the main conversation is about this.

Public sector assets cumulatively purchased and settled as at 04/08/2017 €1,670,986 (31/07/2017: €1,658,988) mln

It continues to chomp away on Euro area government debt for which governments should be grateful as of course it lowers debt costs. Intriguingly there has been a shift towards French and Italian debt. Some of this is no doubt due to the fact that for example in the case of German sovereign debt it is running short of debt to buy. But I have wondered in the past as to whether Mario Draghi might find a way of helping out the problems of the Italian banks and his own association with them.

is the main story this month the overweighting of purchases of rising again to +2.3% in July (+1.8% in June) ( h/t @liukzilla ).

With rumours of yet more heavy losses at Monte Paschi perhaps the Italian banks are taking profits on Italian bonds ( BTPs) and selling to the ECB. Although of course it is also true that it is rare for there to be a shortage of Italian bonds to buy!.

Also much less publicised are the other ongoing QE programmes. For example Mario Draghi made a big deal of this and yet in terms of scale it has been relatively minor.

Asset-backed securities cumulatively purchased and settled as at 04/08/2017 €24,719 (31/07/2017: €24,661)

Also where would a central bank be these days without a subsidy for the banks?

Covered bonds cumulatively purchased and settled as at 04/08/2017 €225,580 (31/07/2017: €225,040) mln

 

This gets very little publicity for two reasons. We start with it not being understood as two versions of it had been tried well before some claimed the ECB had started QE and secondly I wonder if the fact that the banks are of course large spenders on advertising influences the media.

Before we move on I should mention for completeness that 103.4 billion has been spent on corporate bonds. This leaves us with two thoughts. The opening one is that general industry seems to be about half as important as the banks followed by the fact that such schemes have anesthetized us to some extent to the very large numbers and scale of all of this.

QE and the exchange rate

The economics 101 view was that QE would lead to exchange rate falls. Yet as we have noted above the current stock of QE and the extra 60 billion Euros a month of purchases by the ECB have been accompanied for a while by a static-ish Euro and since the spring by a rising one. Thus the picture is more nuanced. You could for example that on a trade weighted basis the Euro is back where it began.

My opinion is that there is an expectations effect where ahead of the anticipated move the currency falls. This is awkward as it means you have an effect in period T-1 from something in period T .Usually the announcement itself leads to a sharp fall but in the case of the Euro it was only around 3 months later it bottomed and slowly edged higher until recently when the speed of the rise increased. So we see that the main player is human expectations and to some extent emotions rather than a formula where X of QE leads to Y currency fall. Thus we see falls from the anticipation and announcement but that’s mostly it. As opposed to the continuous falls suggested by the Ivory Towers.

As ever the picture is complex as we do not know what would have happened otherwise and it is not unreasonable to argue there is some upwards pressure on the Euro from news like this. From Destatis in Germany this morning.

In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.2 billion euros in June 2017.

Comment

There is plenty of good news around for the ECB.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.1% in the euro area ……The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 9.1% in June 2017, down from 9.2% in May 2017 and down from 10.1% in June 2016.

So whilst we can debate its role in this the news is better and the summer espresso’s and glasses of Chianti for President Draghi will be taken with more of a smile. But there is something of a self-inflicted wound by aiming at an annual inflation target of 2% and in particular specifying 1.97% as the former ECB President Trichet did. Because with inflation at 1.3% there are expectations of continued easing into what by credit crunch era standards is most certainly a boom. Personally I would welcome it being low.

Let me sweep up a subject I have left until last which is the official deposit rate of -0.4% as I note that we have become rather used to the concept of negative interest-rates as well as yields. If I was on the ECB I would be more than keen to get that back to 0% for a start. Otherwise what does it do when the boom fades or the next recession turns up? In reality we all suspect that such moves will have to wait until the election season is over but the rub as Shakespeare would put it is that if we allow for a monetary policy lag of 18 months then we are looking at 2019/20. Does anybody have much of a clue as to what things will be like then?

 

Sweden has economic growth of 4% with an interest-rate of -0.5%

We can end the week with some good news as the economic growth figures produced so far today have pretty much varied between better and outright good. For example I note that the 0.5% growth for France makes its annual rate of 1.8% a smidgen higher than the UK for the first time in a while. Also Spain has continued its series of good numbers with quarterly GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) up by 0.9%. But the standout news has come from the country which I have described as undertaking the most extraordinary economic experiment of these times which is Sweden.

Sweden’s GDP increased by 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2017, seasonally adjusted and compared with the first quarter of 2017. The GDP increased by 4.0 percent, working-day adjusted and compared with the second quarter of 2016.

Boom! In this case absolutely literally as we see quite a quarterly surge and added to that growth in the previous quarter was revised higher from 0.4% to 0.6%. This means that it grew in the latest quarter by as much as the UK did in the last year and is the highest quarterly number I can think of by such a first world country for quite some time.

If we look into the detail there is much to consider. There was something unusual for these times.

Production of goods rose by 3.0 percent, and service-producing industries grew by 1.7 percent

It also looks as though the demand was domestic as trade was not a major factor.

Both exports and imports grew by 0.7 percent

There was a sign of booming domestic consumption here.

Household consumption increased by 1.1 percent

Also investment went on a surge.

Gross fixed capital formation increased by 3.8 percent.

However there is kind of an uh-oh here as I note this from Nordea.

Residential construction continues to be a very important growth driver (scary!), but also other investments seem to have picked up and more than forecast.

We will look at that more deeply in a moment but first let us note that the numbers below suggest that productivity has picked up.

Employment measured as the total number of hours worked increased by 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted, and the number of persons employed increased by 0.6 percent.

The Riksbank

The latest minutes point out that the monetary policy pedal remains pressed pretty much to the metal.

At the Monetary Policy Meeting on 3 July, the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at –0.50 per cent. The first rate increase is not expected to be made until the middle of 2018, which is the same assessment as in April. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2017, in line with the plan decided in April.

Still they did say they were now less likely to push it even harder.

it is now somewhat less likely than before that the repo rate will be cut further in the near term

Rather amazingly they described the policy as “well-balanced” but I guess you have to think that to be able to vote for it. However today’s data will be welcome in a headline sense but is yet another forecasting failure as they expected 0.7% GDP growth. Now a 1% mistake in one-quarter makes even the Bank of England’s failures at forecasting to be of the rank amateur level.

Let us move on with the image of the Riksbank continually refilling the punch bowl as the party hits its heights as opposed to removing it.

What could go wrong?

Even the Riksbank could not avoid mentioning this.

the risks associated with high and rising household indebtedness were also discussed.

Did anybody mention indebtedness?

In June, the annual growth rate of households’ loans from monetary financial institutions (MFIs) was 7.1 percent, which means that the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with May.

So the rough rule of thumb would be to subject economic growth and estimate inflationary pressure at 3% which of course would lead to interest-rates being in a very different place to where they are. Also if you look at the issue of the domestic consumption boom you be rather nervous after reading this.

Households’ loans for consumption had a growth rate of 9.4 percent in June, an increase compared with May, when it was 7.3 percent.

I noted earlier the fears over what is happening in the housing market and loans to it have just passed a particular threshold.

In June, households’ housing loans amounted to SEK 3 005 billion, which means that lending exceeded SEK 3 000 billion for the first time. This is an increase of SEK 27 billion compared with the previous month, and of SEK 198 billion compared with the corresponding month last year. This means that housing loans had an annual growth rate of 7.2 percent in June, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared with May.

Another bank subsidy?

I have noted before that fears that negative interest-rates would hurt bank profits have been overplayed and as we note mortgage and savings rates we get a hint that margins are pretty good.

The average housing loan interest rate for households for new agreements was 1.57 percent in June…….In June, the average interest rate for new bank deposits by households was 0.07 percent, unchanged from May.

I also note that banks remain unwilling or perhaps more realistically afraid to pass on negative interest-rates to the ordinary depositor.

House prices

Of course this will look very good on the asset side of the balance sheets of the Swedish banks.

Real estate prices for one- or two-dwelling buildings rose by almost 4 percent in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the first quarter. Prices rose by nearly 10 percent on an annual basis in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year.

In terms of amounts or price it means this.

The average price at the national level for one- or two-dwelling buildings in the second quarter 2017 was just over SEK 2.9 million.

If we look back we see the index which was based at 100in 1981 ended 2016 at 711 and we learn a little more by comparing it to the 491 of 2008. There was a small dip in 2012 but in essence the message is up, up and away. For owners of Swedish houses it is time for some Abba.

Money, money, money
Must be funny
In the rich man’s world
Money, money, money
Always sunny
In the rich man’s world
Aha-ahaaa
All the things I could do
If I had a little money
It’s a rich man’s world

Comment

If we go for the upbeat scenario then it is indeed time for a party at the Riksbank as we see Sweden’s economic performance in the credit crunch era.

The problem with being top of the economic pop charts is that it so often ends in tears. The clear and present danger is the expansion of lending to the housing market and the consequent impact on house prices. Also the individual experience is not as good as the headline as the population grew by 1.5% in the year to May to 10.04 million which of course is presumably another factor in higher house prices.

 

 

UK GDP grinds higher thanks to services and the film industry

Today brings us up to date in terms of official data on the performance of the UK economy in the first half of 2017. Whilst expectations are low rather than stellar the last week or so has brought a little more optimistic tinge to things. This started with the retail sales numbers last week. From last Thursday.

In the 3 months to June 2017, the quantity bought (volume) in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.5%, with increases seen across all store types…….Compared with May 2017, the quantity bought increased by 0.6%, with non-food stores providing the main contribution.

This contrasted with the fall of a similar amount seen in the first quarter of the year which meant that we got back to levels seen at the end of 2016 or around 2.6% higher than in the second quarter last year.

This was added to by better news on the tourism front albeit for only some of the latest quarter.

For the period March to May 2017, spend in the UK by overseas residents increased 14% on the previous year to £5.6 billion………During the period March to May 2017, there were 2% more visits abroad by UK residents compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, and they spent 1% more on these visits

So whilst there was still a considerable trade deficit it did shrink a bit compared to last year as we presumably see a beneficial impact of a lower exchange rate for the pound.

Manufacturing

Yesterday came news from the Confederation of British Industry that the manufacturing was in pretty good shape.

Production among UK manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since January 1995 in the three months to July, according to the latest quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey……….Output growth is expected to continue to grow strongly in the quarter ahead and manufacturers are upbeat about prospects for overall demand. Domestic orders are expected to continue growing strongly, while expectations for growth in export orders improved to a four-decade high

This was upbeat as you can see and came with positive expectations from all of employment, investment and exports. It also came with some better inflation news.

Meanwhile, input cost pressures cooled in the quarter to July and are expected to soften further in the near-term, while factory gate price inflation is also expected to be more subdued.

This poses a few questions as whilst this is to some extent consistent with the Markit PMI business survey although it was more subdued and had a fading in June. It is much less in line with the official data which has shown only a little growth up to May.

Mini

There was some good news on the production front here as well. From City-AM.

A fully-electric version of the Mini is to be built at BMW’s plant at Cowley, in Oxford, the car firm has announced.

Actually whilst good news it is more accurate to say that it will be assembled there. Also in the light of the announcement that sales of petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2040 it was interesting to see that BMW is heading down that road to at least some extent.

By 2025, BMW expects electric vehicles to make up between 15 and 25 per cent of sales. It currently produces electric models at 10 plants worldwide.

Today’s GDP Data

Here we go.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017.

So some but not a lot and it was driven by a very familiar sector.

The growth in Quarter 2 2017 was driven by services, which grew by 0.5% compared with 0.1% growth in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017.

As I regularly point out this sector must be 80% of our economy by now as again and again it grows faster than the other sectors.

The services aggregate was the main driver to the growth in GDP, contributing 0.42 percentage points. Production and construction recorded falls in Quarter 2 2017 of 0.4% and 0.9% respectively, each contributing negative 0.06 percentage points to GDP.

This had an interesting corollary though.

Construction and manufacturing were the largest downward pulls on quarterly GDP growth, following 2 consecutive quarters of growth.

As I have noted above this is very different from the “Production among UK manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since January 1995 ” of the CBI and the growth recorded in the Markit business surveys. I note that Chris Williamson of the latter has been on the wires.

ONS say economy grew 0.3% in Q2, but & output fell 0.5% & 0.9% respectively. These likely to be revised higher.

Regular readers will be aware of my particular doubts about the official data on the UK’s construction sector although there was an interesting reply from the Mayor of West Yorkshire who said that elections always cause slow downs as people wait for the result.

The Film industry

There was good news on this front.

The second largest contributor was motion picture activities, which grew by 8.2% and contributed 0.07 percentage points to GDP growth….. Motion picture activities are a subset of the transport, storage and communications sector, which grew by 1.0%.

Actually only a couple of weeks or so ago Albert Bridge was closed for filming at the weekend and yesterday I noted filming taking place in Battersea Park. This is of course purely anecdotal but this sector has been mentioned in GDP despatches before in recent times. For more information we get referred to the BFI website which does not have the numbers until tomorrow but the ones for the first quarter were strong and perhaps provide a guide.

The total UK spend and budget of these films was £747 million and £983 million respectively, a substantial increase from UK spend of £231 million and total budget of £318 million in Q1 2017. UK spend, as a percentage of budget, was the highest since 2013, at 76%.

The only cloud in this silver lining is that we may have to start being more tolerant of some of the extraordinary statements made by luvvies, excuse me I mean economic miracle workers.

Comment

So the UK economy is grinding on in a slow way as we see the annual rate of growth fall to 1.7%. Also the news from looking at the data on a more personal level shows the minimum rate of growth possible.

GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.1% during Quarter 2 2017.

We also learn that the first quarter may not have been the type of statistical quirk we see regularly from the US but of course much more data will be needed for us to be sure of that.

On the more positive side this was always going to be the awkward period after the EU leave vote as higher inflation from the Pound’s fall causes not only lower real wage growth but actual falls.

Real earnings declined despite historically low unemployment. Adjusted for inflation, average weekly earnings fell by 0.7% including bonuses and by 0.5% excluding bonuses, over the year ( to May). For total real pay (including bonuses) this is the largest 3-month average year-on-year decrease since the 3 months to August 2014.

Also the film industry numbers make me wonder about the UK football premiership where the numbers are ballooning but the latest update I can find is this from E&Y.

The Premier League and its Clubs together generated over £6.2 billion in economic output that contributed approximately £3.4 billion to national GDP in 2013/14.

Surely there has been a fair bit of growth? Although of course the flow of money in then sees a flow of money out in transfer fees. Some are claiming that so far this year the defence budget of Manchester City exceeds that of around 25 countries.

 

 

 

What is happening in the US economy?

It has been a while since we have taken a good look at the US economy so it is overdue. This morning it has been analysed by the International Monetary Fund which has grabbed some headlines with this.

U.S. growth projections are lower than in April, primarily reflecting the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated.

As you can see the IMF has had something of a road to Damascus change since the days it argued that Greece could expand its economy in the face of harsh austerity! Also it is hard not to have a wry smile at the thought that anyone can really predict accurately what will emerge from the Trump administration next. Of course it and the IMF are on various collision courses included this one which was mentioned in the IMF’s Friday press conference.

Since the Trump administration has been promoting its “America first” polices, Managing Director Lagarde has talked more about promoting free and fair trade policies

Returning to the forecast here are the specific numbers.

The growth forecast in the United States has been revised down from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent in 2017 and from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent in 2018.

In addition to  the view on fiscal policy there were concerns about this.

the markdown in the 2017 forecast reflects in part the weak growth outturn in the first quarter of the year.

That is slightly odd because as regular readers will be aware US economic growth tends to underperform in the first quarter these days. Also it is reassuring to know that the number could be either too high or too low.

Risks to the U.S. forecast are two sided: the implementation of a fiscal stimulus (such as revenue-reducing tax reform) could drive U.S. demand and output growth above the baseline forecast, while implementation of the expenditure-based consolidation proposed in the Administration’s budget would drive them lower.

So let us move on with two thoughts. The first is that if we look at the IMF’s track record it is completely incapable of forecasting economic growth to that level of accuracy. Secondly I note that the forecast for the next two years is the average of the last two.

The Nowcast

Several of the US Federal Reserves do what are called nowcasts of economic forecasts so let us head down to the good old boys and girls in Atlanta.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on July 19, up from 2.4 percent on July 14. The forecast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.6 percent to -0.6 percent after this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

This represents an overall decline on the initial estimate of 4.3% in early May. There have been notable falls in both export expectations and investment of all types including housing combined with a dip in consumption. Perhaps the fall in exports is a response to the stronger dollar that we saw a year or so ago.

The Labour Market

This remains very strong as the latest report indicates.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Since January, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down by 0.4 percentage point and 658,000, respectively.

As you can see in spite of the fact that we are in fact above what some would call full employment jobs are still being generated. If we move to the measure of underemployment there continue to be improvements in it as well. The U-6 measure of this has seen the rate fall from 9.6% in June 2016 to 8.6% in June ( seasonally adjusted) this although a rise in this June needs to be watched.

However as we observe so often to the sound of Ivory Towers crumbling to the ground this has not generated much wage growth.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $26.25. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 63 cents, or 2.5 percent.

If we move to median wage growth to exclude the impact of very high earners then we see something that is becoming ever more familiar across many different countries.

We see that the good news is that the US has some real wage growth but the bad news is that it is not that great. The numbers if we return to averages are below.

Real average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased 0.8 percent from June 2016 to June 2017. The increase in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek resulted in a 1.1-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over the year.

Not much is it? If we look back on the chart above we see higher levels that it looked briefly we might regain but in spite of further employment improvements we are now left mulling wage growth fading and wondering how much it and inflation will dip. At this point it is hard not to wonder also about the impact of the “lost workers” from the around 4% fall in the labour force participation rate.

Monetary policy

This is of course being “normalised” which at a time when nobody really has any idea of what normal is anymore is therefore easy to claim. An interest rate of between 1% and 1.25% certainly does not feel normal nor does a central bank balance sheet approaching US $4.5 trillion. There are now plans to trim a minor amount off the balance sheet.

Of course this leaves everyone wondering what happened when the next recession strikes? Well everyone apart from those who believe that the central bankers have ended recessions. It looks as though bond markets have switched to wondering about that as the 30 year which had pushed above 3% is now at 2.8%. Also even the IMF has spotted that the US Dollar is in a weaker phase now.

As of end-June, the U.S. dollar has depreciated by around 3½ percent in real effective terms since March.

These moves will take a little off the edge of what tightening we have seen as I note that US consumer credit flows are in the middle of the post credit crunch range,

In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-3/4 percent.

Comment

A couple of years or so we discussed the likelihood that US economic growth would be around 2% going forwards and we now note that such thoughts have come true. Is that as good as it gets? The US has had one of the better recoveries from the impact of the credit crunch in terms of GDP and unemployment. We should be grateful for that. But we are again left wondering what happens should things slow or head towards a recession?

Still some will not be too bothered, from the Financial Times

Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein each enjoyed $150m-plus rises in the value of their stock and options.

Does the continuing enormous gains of the banksters go into the wages numbers?

Smart Meters and HS2 pose problems for the concept of Investment

One of the sacred cows of economic theory is the concept of investment. The text books have it as what 1066 and all that would call a “Good Thing”. We see this repeated by the media and there are many cries for it to be increased because of the low-cost of it in terms of interest-rates and more importantly bond yields. From a UK perspective that is invariably an easy thing to say or write because we have a culture which leads to strong consumption levels and usually growth which tends to crowd out at least some investment. So as a starter let us look at what investment means.

An investment is an asset or item that is purchased with the hope that it will generate income or will appreciate in the future. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or will be sold at a higher price for a profit. ( Investopedia ).

In essence the major feature is that it is for the future rather than the now as opposed to consumption which is for now. In some ways it is similar to a catalyst in a chemical reaction which makes a change without being used itself. Of course if we move from the text books to the real world we see that nearly all types of investment do in the end run out via wear and tear or simply getting out of date. Even more problematic is the issue of time. What I mean by that is in its own the concept of deferral seems rather moral and good as well of course of being completely contrary to the zeitgeist of these times. But what if it takes so long to be developed that by the time it arrives it is already out of date? That issue does not apparently trouble the world’s statisticians who changed the GDP calculations a few years ago to include Research and Development as an investment regardless of whether it actually led to anything. A dangerous move in my view.

Smart Meters

These are devices for measuring your domestic energy consumption ( gas and electric ). These allow you to see what you are consuming in pretty much real-time and save you the trouble of reading your meter as they send readings to your supplier. So gains but very minor ones. You might believe from the constant stream of both TV and radio advertising that they help you to cut your bills along these lines.

#GAZNLECCY have been causing mayhem for too long. Get them under control with smart meters!

How exactly? There is a radio version which says they will help someone with their favourite dinner but never says how. Actually as we stand it is very misleading as whilst the meters are given for no individual cost they are in fact collectively added to people’s bills. So in the future the “cheaper” dinner will be more expensive!

According to the Financial Times the rollout is not going to well.

 

But as energy suppliers work towards a government target to offer every home in Britain a smart meter by 2020, people in the industry warn the £11bn infrastructure delivery programme is increasingly shrouded in complexity, while costs are mounting.

Not only is it more expensive it is not turning out as promised.

 

So far the devices fitted are first generation technology — known as “Smets1”. These are generally more expensive, less sophisticated and are considered less secure than the second version — Smets2 — which was intended to be the main model rolled out to the market…….Crucially there is a chance the older devices will go “dumb” if a customer chooses to switch energy provider, as the new utility company may not be able to access the data.

Against this there are two possible types of gain. The first is that once people see their energy use they will cut back on it, how they tell that from those who cut back due to higher prices I am not sure. The second impact comes from this described by the Guardian.

Over the longer term they will also allow consumers on smart tariffs to take advantage of off-peak deals – cut-price electricity at night, or when there is a plentiful supply because wind turbines are working at full capacity – at which point it is expected that everyone would run their washing machine.

As someone who lives in a block I could immediately see the problem in everyone’s washing machine coming on at 3 am! Hardly good for neighbourly relations especially as we all became more sleep deprived. But after the Grenfell fire disaster there is a much darker issue to face which the proponents of this technology have either overlooked or ignored.

HS2

This is the project for a High Speed railway to the North and the 2 refers to the fact that the line to the Channel Tunnel was 1st. That is not an auspicious comparison as Eurotunnel went bust and for a long time the trains actually crawled past my area on a back line in Battersea. It is in the news today.

The winners of £6.6bn worth of contracts to build the first phase of HS2 between London and Birmingham have been announced by the government.

In itself we see investment in infrastructure and in our future with even a green tinge as railway transport is greener than cars. But there are more than a few possible problems with this particular investment.

But critics say the £56bn project will damage the environment and is too expensive.

Actually more and more doubts are emerging over the final cost. From The Independent.

The HS2’s first phase between London and Birmingham will cost almost £48bn, according to expert analysis commissioned by the Department for Transport (DfT).

That highlights two problems. If we start with costs then if this report is accurate we will have the most expensive railway in the world at £1.25 billion per mile on the first bit from Euston to Old Oak Common. The next is that by 2026 if everything is on time we will only have a new railway to Birmingham which is way short of the “Northern Powerhouse” promises. Assuming that the bits to Leeds and Manchester are eventually built will it all be out of date by then?

Oh and we have an official denial which of course we know what to do with…

Mr Grayling told the BBC’s Today programme that the high-speed rail network will be “on time, on budget” and the government has “a clear idea of what it will cost”.

The whole concept will not be helped by the fact that Carillion is one of the contractors although it looks as though Carrillion will be happy.

Carillion, which last week issued a profit warning and announced the immediate departure of its chief executive, has won two “lots” within the central area. Its share price rose by 7.7% to 60.5p on Monday but it has fallen by more than 76% over the last 12 months.

Comment

The reason for the clamour for new investment plans has support from the price of it. Here we return to the subject of Friday which is the fact that interest-rates and bond yields are very low in historical terms. The UK has existing debt running into the mid 2060s and none of it yields more than 2% currently. Frankly we could look further than 50 years ahead and could follow Argentina, Ireland and Belgium in issuing 100 year debt. It would be likely that the cost would be low and we would pay maybe not even 2% on it.

Against such a low-cost many investments look affordable as it is a low hurdle to overcome. The problem is that if we look at the examples above we have two enormous projects that seem set to not only fail to clear the hurdle but injure the hurdler in the process. Meanwhile I am sure that plenty of smaller projects would bring genuine gains but less publicity. Is this another flaw of the QE era that the investment generated goes to the wrong places and areas?