What are the economic consequences of a Donald Trump victory?

This morning has seen an event which some will describe as a victory for anti-establishment hopes and others as the end of the world as we know it. The victory of Donald Trump adds to the UK vote to leave the European Union as events which only just before they happened were supposedly not far off unpossible. As an ex options trader my first thought is that the media and dare I say/write it experts understanding of probability has had a simply shocking 2016. One of the things I learned back in the day was that when you make investments you need to wipe you own wishes,wants and likes from you mind science fiction style and maximise objectivity. Also the era of “big data” is not going so well is it?

This has some economic consequences in itself as much of the media has damaged itself in 2016 by being so consistently wrong. How that combines with an age where we consume so much more news is not crystal clear but I expect the main organisations to lose viewers and readers and for newer forms to emerge. There will be one minor relief which is that the one track mind exhibited by the Financial Times this summer and autumn will be replaced by choosing whether to blame Brexit or Trump!

Let me also throw in an issue for the banking and financial centre. After all we have been told that the victory of New York as a banking centre or rather the banking centre was nailed on by the UK EU leave vote. Yet @madamebutcher points out this.

Suddenly, all the American bankers want to stay in London.

We could perhaps do an exchange where our bankers go there and theirs come here. This would mean that everyone would be simultaneously wrong and right!

Economic policy

Has there been an election campaign where there was so little emphasis on the economics? The one main hint along the way as we have discussed on here was that both candidates were likely to have some form of fiscal stimulus. However there were elements of other policies which will affect the economics of which the main one was the protectionist rhetoric and promises of Donald Trump. From the FT.

Mr Trump has campaigned on his pledge to build a wall on the Mexican border, called for a ban on Muslim immigration and the deportation of 11m unauthorised immigrants.

There was also this.

Mr Trump has opposed the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership deal and called for fundamental changes to the Nafta pact with Mexico and Canada……He has also threatened to impose punitive 45 per cent tariffs on goods from China, stoking fears of a trade war.

And this.

Mr Trump has promised the biggest tax revolution since Ronald Reagan, pledging to cut taxes across the board. He says no American business would pay more than 15 per cent of their profits in tax, compared with a current maximum of 35 per cent. The top rate of tax would fall from 39.6 per cent as the Republican reduces the number of tax brackets.

So there was in fact a fair bit but it was covered by a smokescreen on other issues including the obvious personality clash. It was there but often a secondary element rather than primary. There was no “It’s the economy, stupid!” like the original Bill Clinton campaign.

Fiscal Policy

There was already an element of fiscal expansionism in the tax cutting plans highlighted above. For younger readers this is very similar to what Ronald Reagan promised and did as President and back then it went well. Advocates of Arther Laffer were pleased to see the economy strengthen and as it did so tax revenues do well too. Of course that was then and now is a post credit crunch world where many old relationships have broken, but it did look to have worked back then.

On the spending front there was this clear hint.

We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none, and we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.

That is very reminiscent of the “New Deal” of F.D Roosevelt from back in the day or at least it feels like it. Of course we should apply some sort of filter to an acceptance speech likely to be given at a time of a combination of high emotion and much tiredness but some of that will need to be done now I think. It was also backed up by this.

I will harness the creative talents of our people and we will call upon the best and brightest to leverage their tremendous talent for the benefit of all. It is going to happen. We have a great economic plan. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world.

We have quite an odd combination of free market promises on taxes and apparent central planning on infrastructure spending. There has been a clear market adjustment to this which is that the 30 year ( long bond) yield has risen by 0.12% to 2.75%.

What about monetary policy?

The US Federal Reserve has been on the wires and media outlets in the last week yet again promising us an interest-rate rise in December. If we apply logic then the apparent fiscal expansionism expressed by President-Elect Trump should make that even more likely. However there is in reality doubt on two fronts now. As fans of the economic effect of bond yields then a persistent rise ( remember this one is not even a day old) in the 30 year yield will make them less likely to rise. Next central bankers love to use uncertainty as an excuse and 2016 has provided quite a lot of that.

So whilst an interest-rate rise in December should be more likely I suspect it has become less likely now.

Other central banks

The Bank of Japan has been on the wires because the Yen has strengthened to 103 versus the US Dollar and the Nikkei dropped over 900 points to 16,251. But apart from it promising “bold action” for about the 1000th time it is quiet. However I suspect one thing will change which is the constant uses of Brexit as a scapegoat will mostly be replaced by the election of Donald Trump.

Comment

You may be wondering why I have not referred to financial markets more and that is simply because many of them have calmed down apart from those I have mentioned. There is of course one other. The Mexican Peso has fallen some 10% and at times more today as we wonder how much a wall can cost? I have a Mexican neighbour and wonder what to say to her?

Meanwhile fiscal expansionism may well lead to a change in US Federal Reserve policy. I have wondered in the past if future interest-rate increases could be combined with (even) more QE so are we now singing along to Sweet.

Does anybody know the way, did we hear someone say
(We just haven’t got a clue what to do)
Does anybody know the way, there’s got to be a way
To Blockbuster

Should you be feeling down today it could be worse as Newsweek has proven.

https://twitter.com/MACConsulting1/status/796286626649571328